Among locals, only Temple is a lock for Big Dance

March Madness is approaching - the dramatic conclusion to what has been an interesting season in college basketball. How could anybody have forecast in November that Villanova would be the city's biggest long shot for earning an NCAA bid?

To get a further look at the chances of the area teams, we talked to Joe Lunardi, who put the word bracketologist into the hoops lexicon. Lunardi is ESPN's forecaster as it regards who will make the NCAA tournament.

Here is a look at the local teams, with comments by Lunardi about their chances. The teams are listed by their Ratings Percentage Index (RPI).

Temple (22-6, RPI 14). The Owls have clinched a first-round bye in the Atlantic Ten tournament and are the only city team considered a lock for the NCAA tourney.

"They are a No. 6 seed for the NCAA tournament at this point and cannot miss the field," Lunardi said.

Lunardi adds that each loss from this point would cost Temple one seed line, but the Owls could also move up a line or two by winning the A-10 tournament.

St. Joe's (19-11, RPI 51). The win over Temple was huge and the Hawks are in the picture for an NCAA bid but have much work to do. The regular season ends Wednesday at St. Bonaventure (16-10, 9-5).

"The Hawks probably need to reach the Atlantic Ten championship game, which would give them a neutral court win over a likely NCAA-bound opponent [Temple, Saint Louis, or Xavier] in the A-10 semis," Lunardi said.

Drexel (25-5, RPI 67). Even though Drexel has won 17 in a row and earned the regular-season Colonial Athletic Association title, there is still unfinished business for the Dragons in the CAA tourney. Lunardi points out that Drexel doesn't own a win over a top 50 team.

"If Drexel loses to anyone other than VCU in the conference tourney, I fear their bubble will burst again," Lunardi said.

La Salle (18-11, RPI 88). The slumping Explorers are now hoping to earn home-court advantage in the first round of the A-10 tournament.

"The Explorers have pretty much lost any chance for an NCAA at-large bid by dropping five of their last six games," Lunardi said. "It will be A-10 tournament championship or bust for La Salle again this year."

Penn (17-11, RPI 94). It's Lunardi's feeling and just about everybody else's that Penn must win the Ivy League to earn a bid. Harvard is 10-2 in the league while Penn is 9-2 and Yale is 9-3.

If Penn and Harvard win out, there will be a one-game playoff on March 10 at a neutral site to determine the Ivy League champion and NCAA automatic qualifier.

Villanova. Villanova, 11-17 and with an RPI of 116, will miss the tournament for the first time since 2004 - "Barring five wins in five days at the Big East tournament," says Lunardi.

The Wildcats have found one positive in the improving play of junior guard Dominic Cheek. The 6-6 Cheek, who coach Jay Wright said is "finding his place" in the Villanova offense, has averaged 16.3 points in his last seven games while shooting 46.8 percent from the field and 44.7 percent from the three-point arc. Up to the start of that stretch, he had been connecting on just 38 percent of his field-goal tries and 28 percent from deep.

Cheek was part of the highly touted recruiting class of 2009 that included Maalik Wayns and Mouphtaou Yarou but Cheek has not lived up to the glowing reports by recruiting services when he played at St. Anthony High School in Jersey City, N.J.