Penn State's bowl future rides on game

EAST LANSING, Mich. - The popular pastime at Penn State this week has been trying to guess where the members of Nittany Nation will be directing their RVs during bowl season.

But it seems futile to speculate. With more than two weeks remaining until the bowl pairings are announced, the Nittany Lions could be anywhere - from a Bowl Championship Series bowl and its $17 million payout to a lesser bowl worth about one-eighth that.

Much rides on today's regular-season finale at Michigan State. A win would keep No. 13 Penn State (9-2, 5-2 Big Ten) alive for a BCS bid and no worse than a tie for second in the conference. Even if the BCS decides to take a pass on the Lions, they are likely to play in a Jan. 1 bowl in Florida.

If they lose, there is a bit more uncertainty, but a 9-3 overall record still may keep them in Florida on Jan. 1.

Coach Joe Paterno is too worried about the Spartans (6-5, 4-3) to involve himself in any bowl conversation. Asked once about bowls during his weekly teleconference, the Penn State coach gave a predictable answer to reporters.

"The only thing I know is we're playing Michigan State this week," he said. "Don't make a darn bit of difference. You guys speculate all you want. If we don't beat Michigan State, none of it is important. So I don't waste time with it."

Here's a look at what can happen, keeping in mind that Ohio State already has sewn up a Rose Bowl bid.

If the Lions win today, they have a chance at finishing in the top 14 of the BCS standings, meaning a BCS bowl - Sugar, Fiesta or Orange - could select them as an at-large team. If one of those bowls decides on a Big Ten team, the choice will come down to Iowa or Penn State - only one gets in - and the Hawkeyes won the head-to-head matchup.

If Boise State, a team from a non-BCS conference, remains undefeated and in the mix, the chances of Iowa's and Penn State's getting an at-large bid would diminish.

If the BCS opts not to take Penn State, or Penn State and Iowa, then the bowls with Big Ten affiliations would select. The Capital One Bowl ($4.25 million payout) has the first pick, followed by the Outback ($3 million), the Alamo ($2.25 million) and the Champs Sports ($2.25 million) Bowls.

Under Big Ten rules, the Lions would have to go in the top four picks even if they lost to Michigan State, because their 9-3 record would be two games better than the records of bowl-eligible teams Michigan State and Minnesota.

Of course, a lot can happen between now and Dec. 6. After today, while Wisconsin and Illinois each have a nonleague game remaining, the Big Ten will have finished its season. Other conferences have one or two games to play, and some have championship games.

Penn State must be in the top 14 as of Dec. 6 to be eligible for a BCS bowl. There is a chance the Lions could be ranked there tomorrow but get passed by teams still playing (and winning) in the ensuing two weeks to fall out of contention.

First things first, however. The Lions will have their hands full with the explosive offense and excellent special teams of Michigan State in the battle for the Land Grant Trophy.

Kirk Cousins, the Spartans' sophomore quarterback, ranks first in the Big Ten and 13th nationally in passing efficiency, having thrown for 17 touchdowns against only five interceptions.

The Lions, who have struggled in the kicking game, must contend with two top players in that area. Keshawn Martin ranks fifth nationally with a 31.7-yard average on kickoff returns. Kicker Brett Swenson has made 18 field goals in 20 attempts and leads the conference in scoring with 92 points.

For Penn State, junior Evan Royster needs just 10 yards to reach 1,000 rushing yards for the second consecutive season. Freshman wide receiver Curtis Drake, a former West Catholic High star, should see plenty of action with Chaz Powell out because of a shoulder injury.

The running game - The Nittany Lions' rushing attack struggled for the entire Ohio State game and the first half against Indiana before showing signs of life in the second half last week. It's imperative that the Lions run the ball and keep it away from Michigan State's potent offense.

Special teams - Yes, this has been a recurring theme for the Lions. But the Spartans have an outstanding return man in Keshawn Martin, who is averaging 31.7 yards on kickoff returns, and a terrific kicker in Brett Swenson, who is 18 of 20 on field-goal attempts.

Slow starts - The Nittany Lions have fallen behind early in their last four games but managed to come back and win three of them. They can't do it today. Although the Spartans are bowl eligible, they did not challenge for a Big Ten title as many had expected, and they want a signature win in their finale.

- Joe Juliano
EndText