Ravens get nod over the Bengals

I may be the only guy in Philadelphia who can sympathize with Eagles coach Andy Reid. My last weekend went about as well as his.

The opening bell of the NFL season saw the seven picks in this space go 2-5, and that included sharing some of Reid's pain as the selection of the Eagles as home underdogs against the Green Bay Packers flamed out.

However, it's a long season.

Baltimore at Cincinnati (plus-2). It was difficult to tell Monday night against the Jets, but the Ravens do have an improved offense to go along with one of the stoutest defenses in the NFL. To eliminate any suspense, this is a Ravens pick, but not without reservation. The concerns are that the Ravens are coming off a Monday night game and are on the road. And there's more. Although the Ravens have an excellent recent record against the spread in September (7-0), their record against the Bengals against the spread in the last five games is 1-4. Despite some worrisome technical indicators, I'm swayed by Baltimore's upgrades at wide receiver. Pick: Ravens (minus-2).

St. Louis at Oakland (minus-4). It's hard imagining the Raiders being more than a field goal favorite against anyone, but here it is. Last week, the Rams had rookie quarterback Sam Bradford throwing the ball 55 times in a decent but losing effort against Arizona. This time, though, it's more likely that St. Louis will send running back Steven Jackson against Oakland's soft rush despite the star runner's ouchy right knee. Pick: Rams (plus-4).

Pittsburgh at Tennessee (minus-5, over/under 37). This is a two-fer on the pick. The Titans have been excellent ATS at home and in September but, curiously, not so much in Week 2. Last week's easy win over Oakland may not have been much of a test for the Titans, but Chris Johnson was outstanding again, and Vince Young may have matured into a decent NFL quarterback. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh was fortunate that an offensive penalty wiped out an Atlanta first down in overtime. Otherwise, the Steelers may have suffered a rare home loss on Sunday. On offense, Tennessee fares much better at home, which has helped the over cover. Pick: Titans (minus-5, and the over at 37).

N.Y. Giants at Indianapolis (minus-5). The Manning Bowl has shown interesting trends on the online wagering sites. The "expert" picks like Manning the Younger (meaning the Eli-led Giants) while the public favors Manning the Elder (Peyton and the Colts). You have to give the Giants credit for not playing their best game (four turnovers) yet easily covering against Carolina last Sunday. Perhaps, that's more representative of the Panthers' problems. The Colts not only failed to cover but also lost outright as a road favorite in Houston. That may be an indicator that the Texans have come of age, or it could mean that the lack of a running game is going to haunt Indy this year. This decision is based solely on the fact that Peyton Manning will not allow his team to go 0-2 at home and against his little brother. Pick: Colts (minus-5)

I like but don't love: New England at N.Y. Jets (plus-21/2). Unless the Jets can pitch a shutout, how can they beat the Patriots? Pick: Patriots.

If you held a gun to my head (meaning I'm not counting these in the stats): Buffalo at Green Bay (minus-13): Pick: Bills. Kansas City at Cleveland (minus-2). Pick: Chiefs.

Tampa Bay at Carolina (minus-3). Pick: Buccaneers. Miami at Minnesota (minus-5½) Pick: Vikings. Chicago at Dallas (minus-7½). Pick: Cowboys. Arizona at Atlanta (minus-6½) Pick: Falcons.

Philadelphia at Detroit (plus-5). Pick: Eagles. Seattle at Denver (minus-3½). Pick: Denver. Houston at Washington (plus-3) Pick: Texans.

Jacksonville at San Diego (minus-7½). Pick: Chargers. New Orleans at San Francisco (plus-5). Pick: Saints.