Sharp money follows the odds - for better or worse

The bookmaker recalled the rueful gambler's expression.

"The old saying is that 'I had the right team but I didn't get the right result,' " said Jay Rood, director of sports and race book operations at MGM Resorts casinos in Las Vegas.

There was a lot of that sentiment going around Sunday as backers of the Carolina Panthers watched the underdog Chicago Bears smash the point spread, 23-6.

From the time the line on that game was originally posted until kickoff, the point spread shifted as much as six points.

Chicago went from a three-point favorite to a three-point underdog, and the reason was obvious: Bears starting quarterback Jay Cutler had suffered a concussion in the previous Sunday's game against the New York Giants and his replacement, Todd Collins, was flat-out inept in relief on national TV.

"It certainly had to do with Cutler but it was also a fair amount of resistance to Collins as the backup," Caesars Palace sports analyst Todd Fuhrman said.

The wagering that moved the Chicago-Carolina line was so-called sharp money. And as it turned out, the smart guys had doped out the Bears' quarterback dilemma correctly.

Playing true to form, Collins was horrible against Carolina, completing 6 of 16 passes for just 32 yards and four interceptions. But the Panthers were just as futile on offense and the Bears leaned on Matt Forte's rushing (166 yards) to chisel out a win.

Still another game that saw the sharp money go up in smoke was Jacksonville at Buffalo where the Jaguars started as a one-point favorite but were two-point underdogs by kickoff. In the early stages of the second quarter, the smart guys were indeed looking smart as Buffalo jumped out to 10-0 and 13-3 leads.

"But then the Bills reverted to the Bills we all know," Fuhrman said. And that meant the sharp money was tearing up its betting slips as Jacksonville won easily, 36-26.

The surprise team of the season, at least against the spread, continued to exceed the expectations of the oddsmakers - the Detroit Lions.

Despite being winless going into Sunday's game against St. Louis, the Lions were three-point favorites and crushed the Rams and the spread, 44-6. Detroit is now 4-1 against the spread; the Lions' lone loss against the line was by one point.

Remember you read it here: The Saints are not going to playoffs - and not just because they lost, 30-20, to Arizona on Sunday and fell to 3-2 in the NFC South. New Orleans is 1-4 against the line, and in the last three years, just two of 36 playoff teams finished below .500 against the spread.