It's time for some new notions

One of the most difficult things for sports handicappers to do is admit their preconceived notions about a team, or several teams, are incorrect. But the wagering line is a stern teacher, and bettors ignore trends at their own peril.

The Kansas City Chiefs, St. Louis Rams, and Oakland Raiders are clearly much better than most folks would have thought going into the season. And despite their 1-6 record in the NFC North, so are the Detroit Lions.

Meanwhile, San Francisco, Denver, and, obviously, Dallas are performing far below expectations.

So with a little attitude adjustment, we head into the better part of the season's second half perhaps a bit more enlightened.

San Diego at Houston (plus-21/2). Speaking of underachieving, the Chargers have been a huge disappointment so far. They're 3-5 both in the standings and against the spread and 0-4 against the line on the road. Meanwhile, the Texans haven't protected their house all that well and are coming off a short practice week after a Monday night game. Still, the Texans seem to show up every other week, and this is their week.

Pick: Texans.

Miami at Baltimore (minus-51/2). The Dolphins have been mystifying. They are 4-0 on the road, beating the spread all four times, and 0-3 at home. Baltimore is not an easy place to play, but while the Ravens do win there, they don't crush the line.

Pick: Dolphins.

N.Y. Giants at Seattle (plus-61/2). The Giants should have a significant advantage coming off their bye week, and this line saw some early New York money as the spread moved upward 11/2 points from the open. But this has been the year of the home underdog, and the Seahawks are representative of the trend. They are 3-0 against the spread at home, twice as 'dogs.

Pick: Seahawks.

Kansas City at Oakland (minus-21/2). Suddenly, this is an interesting game. The Chiefs lead the AFC West at 5-2, while Oakland is in second at 4-4. The Raiders need the game more, they're at home, and the Chiefs are coming off an emotional, close-call overtime victory against Buffalo.

Pick: Raiders.

Dallas at Green Bay (minus-8). Sometimes you don't pick with the better team, you pick against the far worse team. The Cowboys have now become what the Detroit Lions used to be.

Pick: Packers.

New Orleans at Carolina (plus-61/2). Pick: Saints. Arizona at Minnesota (minus-9). Pick: Cardinals. Tampa Bay at Atlanta (minus-81/2). Pick: Buccaneers. N.Y. Jets at Detroit (plus-4). Pick: Jets. Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (plus-41/2). Pick: Steelers. Chicago vs. Buffalo (plus-3), in Toronto. Pick: Bills.

Indianapolis at Eagles (minus-3).

Did I miss something? Was Peyton Manning abducted by aliens? No? Then explain how the Eagles are three-point favorites at home against the Colts. OK, we have all heard how Andy Reid is 11-0 in games after the bye. Frankly, I'm even more impressed that the Birds are 9-2 against the spread after the bye in the Reid era. But try on this statistic: Manning has a 132.3 passer rating in going 3-0 against the Eagles. I didn't know the passer rating even went that high.

And the Eagles are going to start Dimitri Patterson at cornerback, where he likely will be introduced to Reggie Wayne. Of course, there is the Michael Vick factor as the Eagles quarterback returns from a rib injury, and one suspects that his famous scrambling ability will come in handy against the Colts' quick defensive ends, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, who have a combined 101/2 sacks. An optimistic Eagles fan may reason that the Colts are coming off a short week after a Monday night game and believe the Eagles can win this one. But win it by more than a field goal?

Pick: Colts.

- Bill Ordine

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