Here are my picks to roll, and get rolled, in Week 15 of the 2011 season.
Watch 'em roll
Tim Tebow, QB, Broncos vs. Patriots. There's only one elite quarterback playing in this game, and it's not Tebow. But New England's secondary has made fantasy stars out of Rex Grossman and Dan Orlovsky over the last two weeks. Even if he's on-target only in the fourth quarter while playing catch-up, Tebow will deliver stellar production.
Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals at Rams. There's no better matchup for an opposing rusher than the Rams' putrid defense. Benson is the unchallenged workhorse of the Bengals offense, making him a must-start in virtually every league - even over some elite options.
Beanie Wells, RB, Cardinals vs. Browns. His two-game roll was interrupted by the elite 49ers defense last week. But Sunday offers the perfect rebound scenario of a lousy run defense combined with a strong secondary that will limit Arizona's passing game. Another big day awaits Wells.
Lance Moore, WR, Saints at Vikings. Marques Colston had a monster game against the Titans in Week 14, but he still trails Moore in touchdowns, 6-5. Facing an opponent that has surrendered the most passing TDs in the league (26), Moore is a must-start in Minnesota.
Santana Moss, WR, Redskins at Giants. You won't catch me jumping on the Grossman bandwagon, but there's no denying his delicious matchup with New York's imploding pass defense. Moss is the most reliable target in Grossman's arsenal, making him a great bet to reach the end zone in his second straight game against inferior secondaries.
More thumbs up (excluding the no-brainers): QBs Tony Romo, Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford, and Joe Flacco; RBs Shonn Greene, Marshawn Lynch, Felix Jones, Michael Bush, Reggie Bush, and Roy Helu; WRs Laurent Robinson, Miles Austin, Nate Washington, Mike Williams (Tampa Bay), Donald Driver, Torrey Smith, Percy Harvin, Plaxico Burress, and Dwayne Bowe.
Roll 'em back
Cam Newton, QB, Panthers at Texans. Not only does Houston boast the third-stingiest pass defense in the NFL, but it is stout against the run as well. Normally you can count on Newton to make up any passing deficiencies with a running score or two, but this week should be the exception.
Michael Vick, QB, Eagles vs. Jets. The electrifying quarterback is still playing in pain, and the Jets' aggressive pass defense won't make life any easier. Vick has yet to notch a scoring run this season, and multiple passing scores are not in the cards this week.
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers at 49ers. You hate to sit a top rusher in the fantasy postseason, but when he's facing a brick wall in San Francisco, you almost have to. Mendenhall is losing touches to Isaac Redman as well, making him an even riskier start.
C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills vs. Dolphins. Buffalo is having trouble running the ball and Miami has quietly ascended into the elite ranks of run defenses. Spiller will have trouble getting on track against this unit, which has allowed just five rushing scores all season.
Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers at 49ers. I've said before he's my new favorite fantasy wideout, but Brown is a dicey proposition if Ben Roethlisberger (ankle) can't play. While the 49ers secondary isn't nearly as stingy as its run defense, it is good enough to shut down Charlie Batch and his No. 2 receiver. The Monday night start makes Brown, and Big Ben, even riskier options.
More thumbs down: QBs Sam Bradford, Kyle Orton, Roethlisberger, Alex Smith, Carson Palmer, and Ryan Fitzpatrick; RBs Kevin Smith, DeAngelo Williams, Marion Barber, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and Chris Ivory; WRs Deion Branch, Jeremy Maclin, Johnny Knox, and Michael Crabtree.
Taking a flier
Cardinals defense/special teams vs. Browns. You thought Cleveland's offense struggled before? Get ready for an epic failure with Colt McCoy (concussion) on the sideline. Arizona has sacked opposing passers five times apiece over the last two games, and their secondary has elevated its game recently as well. The Browns' three-headed backfield committee won't find much room to run, either.
Don't be the idiot who . . .
. . . overlooks the Saturday night tilt between the Cowboys and Buccaneers. Just as we've grown accustomed to the Thursday night games, the NFL is throwing us another scheduling curveball. Make sure your Cowboys, especially, are locked in for what should be a fantasy smorgasbord.