Here are my picks to roll, and get rolled, in Week 15 of the 2012 season.
Watch 'em roll
Josh Freeman, QB, Buccaneers at Saints. Freeman had his best game of the season in the first matchup between these division rivals (420 yards, three TDs), and he has continued to perform at a near-elite level since a Week 7 outburst. Meanwhile, no team has allowed more passing TDs this year than New Orleans.
Mikel Leshoure, RB, Lions at Cardinals. Though he's splitting carries nearly evenly with Joique Bell, Leshoure remains the lead tailback, and Detroit's best goal-line option. Facing an Arizona run defense that was mauled by the Seahawks and Jets the last two weeks, Leshoure could be headed for an epic outing.
Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins at Browns. No one will be surprised if Robert Griffin III suits, but Morris will inevitably be leaned upon more heavily than usual. RG3's sprained knee will presumably limit his mobility, leading to more carries for his fellow rookie against a subpar Cleveland run defense.
Lance Moore, WR, Saints vs. Buccaneers. He had nine receptions for 121 yards in Tampa Bay in Week 7. Look for similar returns, including an end zone visit, for Moore against the league's softest pass defense.
Josh Gordon, WR, Browns vs. Redskins. Cleveland is quietly riding a three-game win streak, and Gordon had 18 receptions for 262 yards and one TD during that span. The rookie speedster now faces a Washington secondary that has surrendered an NFL-worst 27 passing TDs (sharing the futility mark with New Orleans). Cha-ching!
More thumbs up (excluding the no-brainers): QBs Cam Newton, Carson Palmer; RBs Steven Jackson, Reggie Bush, Doug Martin, Matt Forte, Trent Richardson, Knowshon Moreno, Darren McFadden, Chris Johnson; WRs Marques Colston, Steve Smith, Pierre Garcon, Mike Williams, Reggie Wayne, Eric Decker, Danario Alexander, Michael Crabtree, Randall Cobb.
Roll 'em back
Andrew Luck, QB, Colts at Texans. The rookie has had a stellar debut season, but he has not been a consistently reliable fantasy passer. He's coming off a mediocre outing against Tennessee's poor secondary, and now must take on a proud Texans defense with a chip on its shoulder. Advantage, Houston.
Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers vs. Panthers. Though Carolina's run defense is below average, Mathews has been equally unimpressive. With just one TD (way back in Week 5), he offers little upside to playoff teams gunning for a championship.
Vick Ballard, RB, Colts at Texans. On the positive side, Ballard is no longer competing for touches with Donald Brown, who has been placed on injured reserve. But Luck is a capable TD poacher in his own right. Meanwhile, Ballard will be facing the league's second-ranked run defense, which was just humiliated by the Patriots on national TV. With playoff seeding on the line, expect the Texans to rebound strongly at home.
Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals vs. Lions. How bad are Arizona's QBs? Over the last four weeks, they targeted their all-pro wideout 37 times but have connected on just six for a pathetic 67 yards. This week, Ryan Lindley gets another opportunity to squander Fitzgerald's talents. Don't even think about it.
Cecil Shorts, WR, Jaguars at Dolphins. Shorts is on track to return from the concussion that sidelined him in Week 14, but he's a very risky start against a pass defense that has held up well against the likes of Tom Brady and Colin Kaepernick. Shorts won't be 100 percent, while Chad Henne has cooled off since his Week 11 outburst.
More thumbs down: QBs Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Joe Flacco, Chad Henne; RBs Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram, DeAngelo Williams, Beanie Wells, Montel Owens; WRs Stevie Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Sidney Rice, Brian Hartline, Malcom Floyd, Jon Baldwin.
Taking a flier
Lions defense vs. Cardinals. Looking for a boost from your defense? It's hard to imagine a tastier matchup than the Lindley-led Cardinals, who made Seattle look like the Purple People Eaters last Sunday. Detroit has been a fantasy also-ran, but the Lions have enough playmakers to do some damage against the NFL's JV squad.
Don't be the idiot who . . .
Blindly plugs David Wilson into your starting lineup expecting a second monster performance. No doubt, the Giants rookie would be an excellent play if Ahmad Bradshaw (knee) is sidelined. But we likely won't know the veteran's status until closer to game time.