Dispelling myth information surrounding Eagles
TWO MYTHS driving me crazy this offseason: 1) That the Eagles find themselves in an either/or quandary at the quarterback position. The notion that they should avoid signing Sam Bradford because they should be targeting a quarterback better than Bradford ignores the reality of both the quarterback position and NFL contracts in general.
TWO MYTHS driving me crazy this offseason:
1) That the Eagles find themselves in an either/or quandary at the quarterback position. The notion that they should avoid signing Sam Bradford because they should be targeting a quarterback better than Bradford ignores the reality of both the quarterback position and NFL contracts in general. Judging by the contracts doled out to quarterbacks over the past few years, the Eagles would essentially be committing to having Bradford on their roster for the next three seasons.
Alex Smith seems a pretty good comparable for Bradford, for a number of reasons. Two years ago, the Chiefs were at a juncture similar to the Eagles'. Smith had spent his first eight seasons with the 49ers, compiling a 38-36-1 record as a starter with mediocre career numbers: a 59.3 completion percentage, 2.9 interception percentage, 178.5 yards/game, and 6.6 yards/attempt, 79.1 rating. The Chiefs acquired him for a couple of second-round draft picks and he produced a solid but not spectacular season: 60.6 completion percentage. 1.4 interception percentage, 220.9 yards/game, 6.5 yards/attempt, 89.1 rating.
Bradford's numbers before he joined the Eagles: 18-30-1 as a starter, 58.6 completion percentage, 2.2 interception percentage, 225.8 yards/game, 6.3 yards/attempt, 79.3 rating. Like Bradford, Smith's durability was a question mark, although he never missed an entire season. Aside from Bradford being a couple years younger, he is at a nearly identical juncture to the one Smith was at when the Chiefs signed him to a contract extension before the 2014 season.
The Chiefs' extension with Smith was essentially a four-year commitment, although it only really handcuffed them for three years. If they had somehow stumbled on a better option, they could part ways with Smith after Year 3 for $7.2 million in dead money compared with a $16.9 million cap number (meaning they'd save $9.7 million). The dead money drops to $3.6 million after Year 4.
Smith received $19 million fully guaranteed, with $26 million guaranteed for injury in Year 2 and Year 3, the full amount of which became fully guaranteed on the third day of the league year in Year 2. For all intents and purposes, they guaranteed him $45 million with cap numbers of $4.6 million, $15.6 million, $17.8 million, $16.9 million, and $20.6 million.
But the point to emphasize is that the Chiefs locked themselves in to having Smith on the roster for only three years, so they had no reason not to draft a quarterback if they had an opportunity to land a guy whom they graded as a potential future star. Sitting on the bench for three years worked out OK for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
This whole notion that the Eagles will be committing to Bradford as their next Donovan McNabb simply isn't reality. Just think about the quarterback position over the last four years. If they'd had an opportunity to sign a Bradford-type player after Donovan McNabb departed, would they be in a worse situation than they are now? They certainly would not have any fewer playoff wins. This isn't a choice between Bradford and Andrew Luck or Jameis Winston. This is a choice between Bradford and Mark Sanchez or Josh McCown or Brian Hoyer or Ryan Fitzpatrick or whichever version of those guys ends up hitting the market this offseason.
Signing Bradford doesn't mean going all-in. It just means providing yourself with a viable option instead of playing an annual game of journeyman roulette.
2) That offensive coordinator Adam Gase is some kind of quarterback whisperer for getting the Bears' Jay Cutler to be pretty much the same guy he was three years ago in his first season under then-head coach Marc Trestman. In 2013, Cutler's line was virtually identical to the one he posted in 2015 under Gase: a 63.1 completion percentage (64.4 in 2015), 238.3 yards per game (243.9 in 2015), 7.4 yards per attempt (7.6 in 2015), and an 89.2 passer rating (92.3 in 2015). The one marked change was his interception percentage, which was 2.3 percent in 2015 compared with 3.4 in 2013 and 3.2 for his career. And let's not forget the most important number for an offensive coordinator: The Bears averaged 20.9 points per game in 2015 compared with 27.8 per game in their first season under Trestman, when Cutler and McCown combined to throw 32 touchdowns against 13 interceptions while averaging 278.1 passing yards per game for a combined 96.9 passer rating.
None of this is meant to suggest Gase isn't a worthy candidate, just that people seem to be making an odd case for him. Fact is, he's never been a member of a winning team that wasn't quarterbacked by Peyton Manning.
Really, the most impressive part of Gase's resume is its breadth. He's worked in a variety of systems with well-regarded offensive minds like Mike Martz, Josh McDaniels, and Manning. He has experience on the personnel side, having spent his first two years in the NFL as a scouting assistant with the Lions. He has experience as a position coach (wide receivers for two seasons with the Broncos, quarterbacks for one season with the Lions and two with Denver). One can argue that type of experience is more important than the statistical performances of the offenses he has run. Which makes the constant focus on his work with Cutler all the more puzzling.
On Twitter: @ByDavidMurphy