Recent history: The Green Bay Packers defeated the Eagles, 53-20, on Nov. 16, 2014 at Lambeau Field. The series began in 1933 with the Packers leading, 26-16-0.
The Eagles have averaged 5.0 yards per carry the last two games, and 6.2 on first down. They're tied for seventh in the league in rushing (118.3 yards per game) and 13th in rush average (4.3). They lost rookie RT Halapoulivaati Vaitai to a knee injury last week, but should be fine with LG Allen Barbre moving to RT and steady veteran Stefen Wisniewski replacing him inside. A bigger concern is the health of their RBs. Ryan Mathews is nursing a knee injury and Darren Sproles has a fractured rib. Rookie Wendell Smallwood likely will be the primary ball carrier Monday night. He has averaged 4.5 yards per carry the last two weeks and has 14 rush first downs and 8 runs of 10 yards or more in just 57 carries. Mathews has 28 of the Eagles' 54 red zone carries. The Packers are ranked sixth against the run (91.1), but have been weakened by injuries at ILB. In their last 2 losses to Tennessee and Washington, they gave up 305 rushing yards at 5.0 yards per carry.
The Eagles are getting little production from their outside receivers, which means SWR Jordan Matthews, TE Zach Ertz and RB Darren Sproles need to continue to carry the pass-catching load against the Packers. Nearly 60 percent of Carson Wentz's passes and 65 percent of his completions the last 4 games have been to Matthews, Ertz and Sproles. Matthews has been targeted 44 times the last 4 games and has 28 catches, 14 for first downs. After a white-hot start, Wentz has cooled off. He had a 103.5 passer rating with 7 TDs and just 1 INT in his first 4 starts. In his last 6, he has a 72.4 rating with 4 TDs and 6 INTs. Both of the Packers' starting corners - Sam Shields and Damarious Randall - are out for the season. None of their other CBs have their speed or coverage skills. Packers have a 127.3 opponent passer rating over the last 4 games. Packers are last in the league in yards allowed per attempt (8.6) and tied for 28th in TD passes allowed (22). They have just 10 sacks in the last 6 games.
Eddie Lacy is out for the season and James Starks still isn't 100 percent after missing four games with a torn meniscus. Starks has played in the last 2 games and the Packers picked up former Seahawk Christine Michael off waivers. Michael didn't play last week v. Redskins, but will play Monday night. The Packers are 19th in rushing (100.6 yards per game), but have averaged just 19.5 rushing attempts and 93 rushing yards per game the last 6 games. They occasionally line up WRs Randall Cobb and Ty Montgomery in the backfield. They've combined for 38 carries. QB Aaron Rodgers has a team-high 18 rushing first downs on 40 carries. The Eagles are 25th in the league in opponent rush average (4.5). They were gashed for 417 yards by the Redskins and Cowboys, and gave up a 72-yard TD run last week to Seattle's C.J. Prosise, but otherwise had done a pretty good job v. the run. They've given up just 11 rushing first downs and five double-digit-yard runs in the last 3 games
Aaron Rodgers' completion percentage (63.2) and yards-per-attempt average (6.73) are down, but not his touchdown production. He's second in the league with 25 TD passes, 15 in the last 5 games. He's eighth in third-down passing, but only Jacksonville's Blake Bortles has thrown more third-down interceptions than Rodgers (5). He has 3 dangerous WR targets in Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams. They've caught 18 of Rodgers' 25 TD throws. Nelson is one of the league's most lethal red zone receivers. He leads the league in TD catches (8) and receiving first downs (10) inside the 20. The Eagles' 3 corners, Nolan Carroll, Leodis McKelvin and Jalen Mills, all are physical players, but are going to have trouble staying with the Packers' receivers if the pass rush can't get heat on Rodgers and prevent him from extending plays. They have just 6 sacks in the last 4 games. The Eagles are second in opponent completion percentage (57.6) and sixth in opponent passer rating (83.8).
The Eagles are first in kickoff return average (33.7) and fourth in punt return average (13.3). They are the only team in the league with multiple kickoff returns for touchdowns. They're first in average drive start following kickoffs (29.4). They'll be going up against a Packers team that is last in the league in kickoff coverage (30.5). Darren Sproles is averaging a career-high 14.1 yards per punt return. The Packers are 14th in punt coverage (8.9). The Eagles are fifth in kickoff coverage, holding opponents to 17.9 yards per return. They have the league's best opponent drive start average on kickoffs (22.2). PK Caleb Sturgis has converted 23 of 27 FG attempts and 20 of 21 PATs. P Donnie Jones is 22nd in net average (39.6), but has had just 14 of 45 punts returned. Packers PK Mason Crosby is the franchise's all-time scoring leader with 1,222 points. He's 18-for-21 on FG attempts this season and 23-for-25 on PATs. PR Trevor Davis is averaging 12.8 yards per return on 9 returns.
As everyone knows, the Eagles have played much better at the Linc (4-0) than on the road (1-5). They've outscored opponents 108-38 at home and been outscored 148-133 on the road. They have averaged 58 yards per game more at home than on the road.
Domo's prediction: Eagles 27, Packers 24
Eagles: DE Brandon Graham. Leads the team in sacks (5), hurries (23) and tackles for losses (9).
Packers: WR Jordy Nelson. Leads the league in TD catches (9), red-zone TD catches (8) and red-zone first downs (10)
Eagles: WR Nelson Agholor. No catches, costly drop and TD-erasing penalty in loss to Seahawks.
Packers: CB Quinten Rollins. A major contributor to Packers' 127.3 opponent passer rating over the last 4 games.
Eagles CBs Nolan Carroll, Leodis McKelvin, Jalen Mills v. Packers WRs Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams. The Eagles corners are physical, but not particularly fast. They're going to struggle against a trio that has combined for 154 catches and 18 TDs. Advantage: Packers
Eagles TE Zach Ertz v. Packers SCB Micah Hyde, SS Morgan Burnett. Both Hyde and Burnett are expected to be matched up against Ertz at some point. Neither of them can cover him. Ertz has 26 receptions in the last four games. Advantage: Eagles