Standings a factor in point spreads

As the NFL regular season heads into its final five weeks, the standings become a key variable in solving point-spread equations. Teams driving for the playoffs will play with a little more inspiration, maybe a lot more.

Conversely, clubs limping to the finish line will lack fire on the field; in the locker room, they'll be whispering about whether the coaching staff will be fired. In the training room, injured players may be reluctant to risk their careers in meaningless games.

St. Louis at Arizona (plus-3). This would be a worthy Pick of the Week. The Rams, despite being 5-6, are tied for first in the horrid NFC West and show up at least willing to fight. The rudderless Cardinals are going nowhere, and their playing at home is no advantage.

Pick: Rams.

Dallas at Indianapolis (minus-51/2). Since Jason Garrett became Dallas' head coach, he has the Cowboys playing with some pride. But this is one of those standings games. The Colts, despite being dogged by injuries, are tied for the AFC South lead, while Dallas is playing for the aforementioned pride. Peyton Manning has kept his team in the hunt with second-stringers, and the Colts quarterback will not allow his guys to lose a second straight game at home. The 51/2 points are a hurdle, but Manning will be on a mission.

Pick: Colts.

Chicago at Detroit (plus-31/2). Yep, another playoff hopeful vs. an also-ran. The Lions have been tough at home and were 7-1 against the spread in the first half of the season. But injuries and the debilitation that losing inflicts have made the 2-9 Lions losers against the line in their last three games. Meanwhile, the Bears - despite offensive line problems - are leading the NFC North and need to hold serve against the likes of Detroit to fend off Green Bay. No way Chicago allows it to be close.

Pick: Bears.

Houston at Eagles (minus-8). Both teams are in the scramble for their respective division leads. The betting public loves the Eagles, or rather it loves Michael Vick's ability to put points on the board. The Texans got a break when wide receiver Andre Johnson was not suspended, along with Tennessee defensive back Cortland Finnegan, for an ugly fight on Sunday. The Texans shut out the Titans, 20-0, but that was against third-string QB Rusty Smith. Against real NFL quarterbacks, the Texans' pass defense has been helpless. Still, there's enough octane in the Houston offense to at least make a backdoor cover against a touchdown-plus spread.

Pick: Texans.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (minus-3, 40 over/under). This has become one of the AFC's most bitter rivalries, and again the Steelers and Ravens (both 8-3) are fighting for the AFC North title. During a season in which the over has been slamming the under at about a 57.5 percent clip, the unders hold a 12-10 edge in the combined games played by these two. With Pittsburgh (No. 3 in points against) and Baltimore (No. 5 in the same category) in a steel-cage brawl on Sunday night in chilly Baltimore, this looks like one of those 17-14 games - which happened to be the score when the Ravens won the first game between these two earlier.

Pick: Under.

N.Y. Jets at New England (minus-31/2). The Patriots need this game because they lost the first one to the Jets. Plus, the Pats are at home, where they do defend the castle.

Pick: Patriots.

Buffalo at Minnesota (minus-6). Pick: Buffalo; Cleveland at Miami (minus-41/2). Pick: Browns; Denver at Kansas City (minus-81/2). Pick: Chiefs; Washington at N.Y. Giants (minus-7). Pick: Redskins; San Francisco at Green Bay (minus-91/2). Pick: Packers; Atlanta at Tampa Bay (plus-3). Pick: Falcons; Oakland at San Diego (minus-13). Pick: Raiders; Carolina at Seattle (minus-6). Pick: Seahawks.

Jacksonville at Tennessee (off the board). Uncertainty at QB for the Titans.

New Orleans at Cincinnati (plus-61/2). This is a classic case of a good team battling for a playoff spot in the season's home stretch against a bad, demoralized team with nothing left to play for. The Saints, dueling Atlanta for the NFC South lead, are hitting their stride after a sluggish start. The Bengals are mired in last in the AFC North with buzzards circling overhead. Cincinnati has beaten the spread just once in the last eight games, and that was a backdoor cover in a loss to Indianapolis. The Saints failed to cover against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving but rallied for the straight-up win. The important thing is that New Orleans has its mojo back and likely will pound the gimme games on their schedule.

Pick: Saints. - Bill OrdineEndText