Bob Ford: Homegrown Hamels will hold the key

The old Roy came advertised as one of the best, most professional pitchers in the game, and the just-arrived Roy is considered the final piece to a top of the rotation that has no rival in baseball.

All potentially true, but the third side of the Big Three triangle, the one that goes to the mound Sunday afternoon in Washington, might hold the real key to the Phillies' ultimate success or failure this year.

Colbert Hamels didn't arrive on the scene in a splashy trade. He came up the old-fashioned way, a first-round draft pick who rose through the farm system toward a heralded big-league debut in 2006.

Since then, Hamels has established himself as an upper-tier starter, but, at 27, is still looking for the sustained success that has marked the careers of teammates Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt.

Hamels announced his arrival by combining for a 29-15 record and a 3.22 earned run average over 410 2/3 innings in 2007 and 2008. He capped that stretch with a great 2008 postseason, but has struggled to keep the momentum going.

This season, after a step-back year in 2009, he started slowly again, but he has heated up along with the weather. Since April, Hamels has a 2.93 ERA in 16 starts and probably deserves better than his overall 7-7 record.

Which way will his season go this time as August takes hold?

A year ago, Hamels was 3-6 after Aug. 1 and the Phillies were 4-8 in his 12 starts. If 2010 is a replay of that, the addition of Oswalt could be easily offset by Hamels' struggles.

There is reason, however, to believe this season will turn out better for Hamels, who was 10-11 in 2009, then suffered through a 1-2, 7.58 ERA postseason.

The biggest reason is that Hamels is not as likely to wear down. In 2008, counting the postseason, Hamels racked up 2621/3 innings, a load that obviously took its toll. The effects of that were compounded when Hamels gave his body what he now considers too much off-season rest and he didn't come to spring training as strong as necessary. The result was a sore arm and a slow start, and Hamels felt he never caught up again.

"I think I've finally been able to get a routine together where I understand what a season takes, how long a season is, what happens to your body during a season," Hamels told reporters after a recent start.

For 2010, Hamels began to work out seriously in early January, and he has missed less than a handful of days in the gym since then. As a result, he's stronger - for the first time in his life, the 6-foot-3 lefthander weighs 200 pounds - and has better endurance.

"Once you see success and you taste success and then you don't have the success, you want it back so bad, and you'll do anything to get it," Hamels said.

Even counting his rocky April, Hamels has been getting what he worked for this season. His overall ERA of 3.48 is among the top 20 in the National League and fifth-best among lefthanders. He's averaging better than six innings per start, and his strikeouts per nine innings are sixth in the NL among starters.

Augmenting his better conditioning has been Hamels' ability to work in a cut fastball and an occasional curveball along with his usual repertoire of fastballs and change-ups. Depending on the count, the cutter has been an effective pitch, and while the curve is not much more than a different look, there's a benefit to putting a little doubt in the minds of the batters. Rather than just facing a coin-flip decision, the batter has slightly more to think about now.

Will all of that add up to a solid third side for the Phillies' triangle of top starters? It appears promising enough. Hamels has given up three or fewer earned runs in 15 of his last 16 starts, so that's a fairly dependable run.

But August and September like to tell different stories, and there are no guarantees - even that the pair of Roys will hold up their sides of the geometry.

The Phils have made their play for the present, however, for making another deep postseason run. They are counting on the pitchers they have brought in, of course, but there's no overlooking the importance of the one they have merely brought along.

So, August begins with Cole Hamels, and, with him, so does the real season. This one lasts two months, and the Phillies will be in very good shape if Hamels does as well.