Rich Hofmann: Phillies need strong finish down the stretch

BRAVES WIN, Phillies win. Braves lose, Phillies lose. It plays out like that every day, it seems. The notion that this is going to end either easily or quickly dissipated a long time ago. The National League East championship might very well not be decided until October. Phillies win, Braves win. Phillies lose, Braves lose. In lockstep, then, they all march toward an uncertain future.

The Braves are on a pace to win 95 games. Anybody with a brain is long past kidding themselves that they are some kind of mirage, shimmering in the summer heat. The Braves get a well-pitched game just about every day. They have worked to add some punch to a lineup now operating without Chipper Jones. Their persistence, especially at home, is there for everyone to see.

"Anytime you're not in first place, you're going to notice," Cole Hamels said, after losing to the San Francisco Giants last night, 5-2. It was another in a long string of games this season when Hamels received pitiful run support; the Phillies only had one hit going into the ninth inning. This time, though, Hamels was not the hard-luck loser. He deserved this loss because he struggled with his location and was hit pretty hard in a three-run first inning.

Hours earlier, the Braves' loss to the Washington Nationals was beamed on several clubhouse televisions before the Phillies took batting practice. A couple of people were watching, but only a couple. As Hamels said, "You don't let it affect you," and that makes perfect sense. This is a clubhouse full of people who know what it takes, after all.

But it is there, still. Braves lose, Phillies lose. The Phillies didn't have to chase like this last year. The deficit is only 2 1/2 games but it has proven to be stubborn. The Phils are 20-6 since July 22 but they still have not caught up.

"It's, what, Aug. 19?" reliever Chad Durbin said. "If the game is on one of the TVs, it's there and you see it, but it's really not a subject of conversation around here. They've played good baseball. We've played good baseball. We both know that if we play well enough, the windows are there for a playoff appearance.

"I think the way most of us look at it is, we have to take care of ourselves. If you're really taking a hard look at another team in mid-August, it's really not the right focus.

"I think we're fortunate to have been in the playoffs the last couple of years because it gives you the freedom to think the way you're supposed to think," he said. "If it's your first time through it, you're really paying attention. I know that my first time was in '08, my first playoff scenario, and I was peeking at ESPN as often as I could."

Back to that number: 95 wins. Certainly, a lot of things could happen between now and then - but that has to be the operating target at this point, especially if the Mets decide to go gently into the good night. The Phillies have 42 games remaining to be played in the next 44 days and you can look at it this way:

They played .643 baseball for the 42 games before last night and, well, guess what? They are going to have to play .643 baseball for the final 42 games if they are going to get to 95 wins.

In other words, they will have to do a touch better than last year's stretch run - and that one was the best race to the finish in the major leagues in 2009, and the best for the franchise since the Black Friday Phillies of 1977. It is really hard to play at that level over an 85-game stretch - for more than half of a season - but that is what these Phillies will need to do if they are to reach 95 wins.

If it is going to take 95 wins.

If the Braves don't cool down.

"I look at everybody," Placido Polanco said, when asked about his viewing and standings-reading habits. "But that's just me. It's too early, but I look from Day 1. That's just the way I am. I look at everybody."

He plays for a team with three great starters and two question marks, with an offense that still has moments of maddening inconsistency, with a bullpen that only lately has shown signs of coming together. He plays for a team that has won this division with less, true enough, but the Phillies have never been challenged by a team winning at the Braves' current pace.

If the Phillies win the division again, it will likely be because they were better than they've been under Charlie Manuel. Which is saying something, even if it is still August.

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