Phil Sheridan: Tough choice: Big contract may not be Werth-while.

The Phillies got very lucky with Jayson Werth once. This time, luck isn't going to have anything to do with it. Only money.

Werth was an injured former Dodgers prospect when the Phillies signed him in 2006. As his contract expires now, he is a 31-year-old at the peak of his powers and - more pertinent - the peak of his earning potential. There is every reason to believe he will be playing in Boston or New York or Chicago next season.

That means a couple of things. The Phillies have finally arrived at that moment when they have to make hard choices about the core of the team that came together and won a World Series in 2008. There have been departures of popular players already, but with asterisks. Pat Burrell was past his prime when his contract was up. Cliff Lee, as brilliant as he was, was with the team a scant five months. Pedro Feliz? Seriously?

The problem isn't losing a player like Werth, who has been very good and has played a major role in the success of the last four seasons. The problem is replacing him. Outfielders who can hit are not scarce. Unfortunately, neither are outfielders who don't hit, or hit one year but not the next.

You need only look across the outfield from Werth's spot in right to see the potential pitfalls that lurk for general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. Raul Ibanez was Amaro's first big move after succeeding Pat Gillick as GM, and it was a move that looked very astute for the first few months of the 2009 season.

But Ibanez has been as streaky and as unreliable as the rest of the Phillies' lineup ever since then. His three-year, $31.5 million deal is a bit of an anvil around Amaro's neck as he looks for ways to improve this team without "blowing it up" - as he joked Monday. Ibanez, at 38, is due $11.5 million for next season. If the Phillies are to give Werth a deal like the seven-year, $120 million monster signed last year by Matt Holliday, then Werth could be the aging anvil making megabucks in a few years.

Is that risk worth it to keep this core lineup together for the next few, championship-window seasons? Amaro could get creative, perhaps trading Shane Victorino, signing Werth to a deal that essentially replaces Ibanez's salary (plus inflation, of course) after 2011, and saving the difference by trusting Domonic Brown to be an everyday player.

That would bring the "infusion" of youth that Amaro talked about, while keeping Werth on board. It would also mean that, after 2013 or so, this team could be old, overpaid and facing some dismal years.

Or Amaro could choose to let Werth walk, go with an Ibanez-Victorino-Brown outfield to start the 2011 season and adjust as needed. That way, the Phillies could invest the money Werth would command in bullpen help and some depth.

Amaro deserves credit for this much. He did not hide behind his budget in discussing his options with the media Monday. Amaro said plainly that he has the resources to do the cost/benefit analysis and make the decisions he thinks best.

Last year, the Cardinals re-upped with Holliday and were rewarded with 28 home runs, 103 RBIs and a .992 OPS. The Mets signed Jason Bay - whose four-year, $66 million deal is another benchmark for Werth - and got 6 homers, 47 RBIs and .749 OPS in just 95 games. Their new GM and manager will be very excited about paying him $16 million in 2011.

It would be heartwarming to report that Werth loves it here so much and is so determined to win another title that he's willing to forfeit millions he might be overpaid by another franchise. But that's not the situation. One doesn't hire agent Scott Boras to give out hometown discounts.

Besides, Werth just watched ex-Phillies outfielders Burrell and Aaron Rowand dance around the infield at Citizens Bank Park. They moved on - Burrell for a good deal from Tampa Bay, Rowand for a very good deal from the Giants - and now they are going to the World Series (where they will, ahem, meet Cliff Lee). The point is, there's no guarantee that staying here means winning.

Besides, Werth has already been dealt an unfortunate hand. Or wrist, in his case. The injury that led the Dodgers to give up on him is healed, but the memory remains. He is one inside fastball from a possible career-ending injury. He has watched most of his teammates get big paydays, including the late-arriving Ibanez. He is going to get exactly one shot at this long-term, nine-figure contract.

There should be no complaints if it comes from the Phillies. If not, complaints should be held until a year from now. The Phillies and Werth could both be in the postseason - together or as opponents - if they're lucky.