The 3 key Phillies
The Phils' 2014 fortunes still are hitched largely to the health and production of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins.

IT WAS ONE of the most memorable moments of the Phillies' half-decade reign in the National League East.
On the penultimate day of the 2008 regular season, Brad Lidge finished his perfect season and the team clinched its second consecutive division title when Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard completed a nifty, game-ending doubleplay against the Washington Nationals.
Lidge, of course, is long gone. The man on the other end of that battery, catcher Carlos Ruiz, may or may not return in 2014 - he's set to file for free agency in a few weeks.
But Rollins, Utley and Howard remain.
And perhaps that sentence best sums up the current state of the Philadelphia Phillies. Because if the team hopes to prove the last two seasons were unfortunate blips and not the reality of an aging and declining team, they'll need that infield trio to pay a visit to the Fountain of Youth and party like it's 2009 next summer.
The 5-year anniversary of the 2009 National League pennant team arrives next season for the Phillies. It was also the last season Rollins, Utley and Howard all started more than 100 games.
Whether the three can regain their respective MVP-capable forms is beside the point - although general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. is surely paying them to do so. But if they all can't stay on the field for a full season, it's highly unlikely the Phillies can rebound from an 89-loss season and drive themselves back into contention in 2014.
Rollins, who just a year earlier said the Phils would have finished ahead of Washington had they stayed healthy, sounded much different as the 2013 season ended. Outspoken and confident - borderline cocky - in the past, Rollins admitted it would take "a fantastic year . . . with some luck and guys having big years to get to that championship level again."
If that sounds like a lot to ask, that's because it is. But since $51 million of the 2014 payroll is committed to Rollins, Utley and Howard, it's exactly what management is asking for next season.
Even if the front office makes an upgrade or two in the outfield, which isn't even a sure thing given its recent track record, the 2014 Phillies will go as Rollins, Utley and Howard go. With their respective health and declining stat lines very much in question, it's not exactly easy to be confident about the state of the Phillies 5 years removed from the Halloween parade down Broad Street.
Howard, who has played the equivalent of two half-seasons in 2012 and '13, with two different surgeries on his left leg, turns 34 next month. Rollins and Utley both turn 35 before Christmas.
"Yeah," Utley said, acknowledging the aging core on the final day of the season, "but [it's] having the same mindset every year whether you're 21 or 45. It shouldn't really matter. The goal is to prepare yourself and help your teammates out and try to improve, improve on a daily basis. I think that's what's most important."
That can only happen, of course, if the veterans are on the field. At least in the case of Utley, the 2013 season was encouraging in that respect.
After missing the majority of the first half of both 2011 and '12 batting chronic knee pain, Utley played in 131 games this year and was productive, too. Utley hit .284 with 18 home runs, 69 RBI and a .823 OPS in his best offensive season since 2009.
It was enough for the Phillies to reward him with an incentive-laden contract in which Utley can continue making All-Star-worthy money if he stays on the field. Perhaps it's more of an indictment of both Rollins and Howard that Utley, whose knee condition made his career appear in jeopardy a little over a year ago, is the least of the infield's concerns.
Monday was the 2-year anniversary of the day Ryan Howard's Achilles' tendon ruptured. He hasn't been a healthy player since.
Health has robbed him of both playing time and the ability to be productive. Howard, who was looking leaner and quicker while taking pregame batting practice with the Phils 2 weekends ago, hit .244 with 25 home runs and 194 strikeouts in 151 games the last two seasons.
Howard is expected to be as close to 100 percent as he's been since the summer of 2011 when he reports to Clearwater in 4 months.
"The preparation for me," Howard said, "is to be ready to play 162-plus games next year."
Since the Phils have gone 77-107 when Howard hasn't been in the lineup since 2011, and 77-63 when he has been in the lineup, his everyday presence would undoubtedly be a boost.
Rollins' ability to stay on the field hasn't been an issue in the last three seasons. But his ability to be a consistent, productive offensive player is a different story.
Let's disregard the 2010 season, when Rollins was limited to a career-low 88 games while battling injuries. In the three seasons prior, from 2007-09, Rollins hit .275 with a .329 OBP, a .467 slugging percentage with 62 home runs and 119 stolen bases in 454 games; in the three seasons since, from 2011-13, Rollins has hit .256/.323/.392 with 45 home runs and 82 stolen bases in 458 games.
Can Rollins still be more productive than the average major league shortstop in 2014? Probably, although Rollins' career-low .667 OPS was lower than the average OPS of major league shortstops (.680) this season.
But you have to wonder if Amaro has buyer's remorse, since the $22 million he'll likely be paying Rollins in the next two seasons may have been better supplemented by playing cheap, defensive whiz Freddy Galvis at shortstop while funneling that money into a more consistent and productive outfield bat.
Revisiting Rollins' contract - just as rehashing Howard's - doesn't matter much at this point. The Phillies' ownership and management hitched their proverbial wagons to this infield a long time ago.
While Cody Asche and Maikel Franco may provide promise to finally nailing down third base for the first time in forever, it's the rest of the infield that remains the same as the Phils desperately try to reboot their glory days again.
On the farm
After having few options in the minor leagues for the last decade and going with veterans like David Bell, Pedro Feliz, Placido Polanco and Michael Young, the Phils are suddenly flush with third-base options on the farm.
Cody Asche, 23, rose from the minor leagues to the majors in the final 2 months of 2013. He hit .235 in 50 games, but his .290 average, .854 OPS and five home runs in a 5-week stretch from Aug. 6 to Sept. 20, along with plus range in the field, showed legitimate promise.
Asche may eventually have to find a new position, however, if Maikel Franco's bat continues to produce pop.
Franco, who just turned 21 in August, hit .320 with a .926 OPS, 31 home runs, 36 doubles and 103 RBI in 134 games between Double A Reading and Class A Clearwater in 2013. He earned a trip to the Futures Game and the Paul Owens Award for the organization's top minor league hitter.
Franco's only weakness, it would appear, is his foot speed, which makes anywhere other than the two corner infield positions out of play. With Ryan Howard under contract, Franco's future with the Phillies has to be third base.
Others on the farm: Like Asche, Cesar Hernandez and Freddy Galvis split time between the majors and minor leagues. Both are middle-infield gloves who should compete for major league utility positions on the bench in 2014. Shortstop Roman Quinn (20 years old, 2nd-round pick in 2011) has made 58 errors in 132 games between Williamsport and Lakewood since being drafted. Shortstop J.P. Crawford (18, 1st-round pick in 2013) became the first Phils player to play for low-A Lakewood the same summer he was drafted after hitting .345 in 39 games in the Gulf Coast League. Both Crawford and Quinn are years away from the big leagues.
Free agents
With the exception of catcher, the Phils are very unlikely to address any of their winter's infield needs through free agency. Asche and Franco are very likely to man third base going forward.
But with no one ready to take over regular, everyday, major league catching duties, the Phils undoubtedly will hit the open market for a catcher. The most likely scenario has Carlos Ruiz returning for his eighth straight season as the team's regular backstop.
Ruiz turns 35 in January. Since an injury and suspension limited him to 92 games this season - and injuries held him to 114 games in 2012 - it would seem unlikely that Ruiz would get a contract longer than 2 years on the open market. But perhaps a team like the New York Yankees, hungry for veteran catching, would go to 3 years.
The Phils likely value Ruiz just as much as anyone and his righthanded bat (which has hit .295 with an .810 OPS in the last four seasons) is an ideal fit in their lefthanded-heavy lineup.
Other free-agent catchers: Brian McCann, A.J. Pierzynski, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Geovany Soto, John Buck, Dioner Navarro.