Phillies At The Break / Looking Ahead

Charlie Manuel doesn't like to hear that the Phillies are a second-half team.

He'd like them to be an all-the-time team.

But the numbers are the numbers, coincidental or not. The Phillies are a second-half team. They are 133-89 (.599) after the all-star break in Manuel's first three seasons as Phillies manager. That's the best record in the National League, and the second-best record in baseball behind only the New York Yankees.

The Phillies hope that pattern holds true, because they will need to play better in the second half than they played in the first half. That's because the New York Mets are playing better baseball, and the Florida Marlins just won't go away.

"Philly is the defending champ," Atlanta Braves third baseman Chipper Jones said. "They're in first place right now. They know what it takes. The Mets are the hunters. The Phillies are trying to stay in front of them. But when it comes down to it, you could flip a coin, really."

It's tough to say who is the favorite at this point.

"I'd like to say us," Marlins second baseman Dan Uggla said. "I'm sure the Phillies are going to say them. And I'm sure the Mets are going to say that they are. It's going to be a fun race to watch, I know that. Because it seems like every time one of us does something, the other one does it. The Phillies win, the Mets win, we win. They lose, we lose."

The Phils' second half begins tonight. Like last season, it could come down to the final weekend.

The Phillies are a second-half team, but are their key contributors?

Ryan Howard

hits .255 with a .882 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) in his career before the break, and .310 with a 1.078 OPS after the break.

Chase Utley hits .303 with a .919 OPS before the break, and .293 with an .887 OPS after.

Jimmy Rollins hits .269 with a .742 OPS before the break, and .288 with an .813 OPS after.

Pat Burrell, who needs a big second half entering free agency after the season, hits .257 with a .851 OPS before the break, and .262 with an .869 OPS after the break.

The Phillies have little room for error, and a tough schedule to open the second half. That could be a bad combination. They play 12 of their first 15 games — and 19 of their first 28 games — on the road. That first stretch includes series in Florida, New York and St. Louis. If the Phillies can get through that stretch in good shape, they play 22 of their remaining 38 games at Citizens Bank Park.

1. Brett Myers needs to bring the swagger back to the mound, forget about the bullpen, and pitch like the guy that had a 3.72 ERA in 2005 and a 3.91 ERA in 2006.

2. The bullpen needs to continue to pitch well. Phillies relievers have a 2.71 ERA this season, which is the best ERA in baseball. If they struggle, it would only magnify the holes they're trying to fill in the rotation.

3. Jimmy Rollins needs to return to MVP form. The Phillies have a dynamic offense when Rollins is getting on base and scoring runs. He didn't do that as much in the first half. If he does, the offense can take pressure off the pitching staff.

1. The Phillies can't continue to beat only the Braves in the NL East. They're 8-1 against the Braves, but need to play better against the Mets (3-7), Marlins (3-3) and Nationals (3-3).

2. Adam Eaton can't continue the tailspin he entered before the break, going 1-4 with a 9.64 ERA in his last five starts.

3. Injuries. The Phillies have been relatively lucky in the first half, especially with their pitching staff. They need to stay healthy for the September stretch run.

The Phillies got the Mets back in the race by losing three of four to them earlier this month at Citizens Bank Park. The Mets are a confident crew these days, with a nine-game winning streak entering last night's game in Cincinnati.

"When you win, it pretty much cures all illnesses," the Mets' Billy Wagner said. "Everything is as good as it could be, considering that probably a month ago we were wondering if we'd win 40 games. Now we've won 51 and we're a half-game out, so it doesn't get much better than this.

"Who's going to show up? Is the '06 team going to show up? Or the '07? Right now we're showing signs of the '06."

The Florida Marlins keep hanging around, and they could cause the Phillies some problems in the second half.

The Marlins know nobody thinks they have a chance, but they do.

That's all that matters.

"I've got a lot of confidence in my teammates and my coaches and my manager, so I'm excited for it," Dan Uggla said. "Whether we're hanging around or we're right there or whatever people say, it doesn't bother us. We know where we're at."