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Jake Arrieta continues to struggle, putting Phillies in an early hole in loss to Mets

The high-priced righthander has been as complicit as anyone in the Phillies' swoon, sporting a 6.03 ERA in his last seven starts.

Jake Arrieta allowed four earned runs, including three in the fifth, off nine hits in the Phillies' 9-4 loss to the Mets Monday night.
Jake Arrieta allowed four earned runs, including three in the fifth, off nine hits in the Phillies' 9-4 loss to the Mets Monday night.Read moreMatt Slocum / AP Photo

In listing reasons for the Phillies' free fall since the first week of August, it's easy to cite their three least-experienced starters and surmise that Zach Eflin, Nick Pivetta, and Vince Velasquez hit the proverbial wall after pitching more innings than ever in their brief major-league careers.

But that fails to explain what on earth happened to Jake Arrieta.

It gets a bit overlooked because, in the final analysis, Arrieta hasn't pitched terribly after signing a three-year, $75 million contract in March. Down the stretch, though, the veteran right-hander has been as complicit as anyone for the Phillies' tumble from contention.

Take Monday night, for example. Arrieta dropped the Phillies down a four-run hole and lasted only five innings en route to an eventual 9-4 loss to the New York Mets before an announced crowd of 21,767 at Citizens Bank Park. It was the Phillies' 11th loss in 17 games against the Mets, who are 59-74 against everyone else.

"It's just not going well all the way around," Arrieta said after the Phillies fell to 4-11 in September and 13-25 since Aug. 5. "It's just kind of plain and simple."

Arrieta has done little to help the cause. His ERA in seven starts since Aug. 12: 6.03.

This latest outing was a snapshot of Arrieta's season. He had precise control, throwing 61 of 81 pitches for strikes over five innings. He even got 13 swings and misses. He gave up nine hits, although six were singles that got through the infield. On the surface, it didn't look horrible.

But when the Phillies, hitless through four innings against Mets starter Zack Wheeler, needed Arrieta to throw up a zero in the middle of the game, he instead gave up five hits in a span of six batters in a three-run fifth inning and put them at a considerable disadvantage.

"Too many hittable pitches in the strike zone, really, is what it boiled down to," said Arrieta, who lamented not forcing the Mets to chase bad pitches. "Those guys, give them credit, they put some nice swings together. But I just wasn't good enough outside the strike zone when I should have been."

The Phillies took Arrieta off the hook with four runs in the fifth inning. Once again, J.P. Crawford delivered a big hit, a bases-clearing triple, then hustled home to score the tying run on Cesar Hernandez's sacrifice fly. The bullpen blew it, though, as Tommy Hunter gave up the go-ahead run in the seventh inning and the Mets tacked on four in the ninth.

Any veteran scout will concede that September can be a misleading time to make evaluations, but given how many at-bats Crawford missed this season because of injuries, the Phillies would benefit from seeing as much of the 23-year-old shortstop as possible over the season's final two weeks. They might get a chance, too, after infielder Asdrubal Cabrera left the game in the fifth inning with a strained left calf. He will be re-evaluated Tuesday.

In assessing Arrieta's season, manager Gabe Kapler noted the statistical similarities to last year with the Chicago Cubs. What stands out, though, are the prolonged peaks and valleys. Arrieta was effective early in the season despite a truncated spring training and dominated in May. He had a rough June but rebounded by going undefeated in six starts in July.

Lately, it has been a struggle for Arrieta. Only six pitchers who have thrown at least 30 innings since Aug. 12 have a higher ERA than Arrieta during that span. In his last seven starts, he has allowed 1.47 walks/hits per inning and finished the sixth inning only three times. By comparison, he posted a 3.11 ERA, gave up 1.20 walks/hits per inning pitched and completed at least six innings 13 times through his first 22 starts.

And unlike the Phillies' younger starters, Arrieta's fade can't be pinned on never pitching this deep into a season, especially in a pennant race. Two years ago, he worked 219 2/3 innings, including the playoffs, and started Game 6 of the World Series for the Cubs.

"I would like it to be a little bit better, but it is what it is," Arrieta said of his season. "You take the ball every fifth day and give your best, and the results are what they are. I feel like it could have been better in some areas, but what's done is done. I've got to move forward and just try to be better the next time we go out there."

Maybe it's merely six rough weeks. For $30 million this season, $25 million next year and $20 million in 2020, the Phillies have to hope it isn't predictive of a larger decline.

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