In Texas, Democrats narrow GOP’s U.S. House majority, win upset in state Senate

Democrats narrowed Republicans’ U.S. House majority and flipped a state Senate seat on conservative terrain in a pair of Saturday special election runoffs in Texas with national implications.

Democrat Christian Menefee won the special election runoff Saturday for Texas’ 18th Congressional District, paring House Republicans’ slim advantage by securing a long-vacant seat in a heavily Democratic area. In a second election runoff in Tarrant County, which includes Fort Worth, Democrats won a notable upset, with Taylor Rehmet defeating Republican Leigh Wambsganss in a district where President Donald Trump won by 17 points in 2024.

In special elections and other local races over the past year, Democrats have largely outperformed Republicans. National Democratic leaders have pointed to the results, including Rehmet’s win, along with sweeping victories in last fall’s elections, as reasons for optimism headed into this fall’s midterms. Democrats are hoping in November to capitalize on anger at Trump’s agenda. Republicans will try to defy recent political trends and hold on to their control of Congress.

The House majority is the marquee prize in the November midterms. Republicans have been clinging to a narrow edge in the chamber, at times complicating their agenda. Because the competition in the Texas House race was down to two Democrats, the effect on the balance of power has been long anticipated. Special elections coming later this year to fill vacancies in Georgia, New Jersey, and California could further alter the partisan breakdown of the chamber.

Menefee defeated fellow Democrat Amanda Edwards, the Associated Press reported, winning a Houston-area district briefly held by Democrat Sylvester Turner before his death in March. When Menefee is sworn in, Democrats will have 214 House seats. Republicans hold 218, giving House Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.) a razor-thin margin. To pass legislation, Johnson can lose only one Republican vote if all members are present and otherwise vote along party lines.

In Texas, the midterms are set to be contested under a new House map backed by Trump that state GOP leaders enacted last year. Both Menefee, a former Harris County attorney, and Edwards, an attorney and former Houston City Council member, will immediately move to an unusual intraparty contest in a newly redrawn district against longtime Rep. Al Green (D). Texas will hold its primaries on March 3.

Residents of Texas’ 18th District are now set to have representation in the House through the end of Turner’s term after nearly a year of vacancy. For months, Texas Democrats had accused Gov. Greg Abbott (R) of deliberately delaying the special election to fill the vacant seat to help Republicans maintain a slim majority. Abbott blamed Harris County for election administration issues, saying he had to schedule the election for late last year to give officials there time to prepare.

The 18th District, which covers much of central Harris County, has a predominantly Black and Latino population. The district has been a Democratic stronghold for decades and has been represented by civil rights leaders such as Sheila Jackson Lee and Barbara Jordan.

Throughout his campaign, Menefee touted himself as a fighter with a record of suing the Trump administration, focusing heavily on healthcare, voting rights, and federal funding to the district.

Saturday’s runoff took place because no candidate won a majority of the vote in the November special election. Menefee was the top vote getter then, with roughly 29%, while Edwards finished second with roughly 26%.

The state Senate special election was to replace Republican Kelly Hancock, who became the state’s acting comptroller. With most of the vote in Saturday’s election tallied, Rehmet was ahead by more than 14 percentage points.

Rehmet, an Air Force veteran and union leader, won nearly 48% of the vote in the November special election to face Wambsganss in the runoff. Wambsganss is an executive at Patriot Mobile, which describes itself as “America’s only Christian conservative wireless provider.”

Rehmet’s victory is largely symbolic because candidates will have to run for the seat again in November, before the Texas legislature begins its next session in January 2027.

But strategists and analysts look at special elections as one barometer for measuring the national political mood and voter attitudes. Democrats have tended to do better than Republicans in special elections and other lower-profile races in recent years, while the GOP was successful in 2024 with Trump at the top of the ballot.

“Senator-elect Rehmet ran an exceptional campaign focused on solutions to the issues that families care most about, from the rising cost of groceries and utilities to the healthcare crisis,” DNC Chairperson Ken Martin said in a statement, adding that this win is “a warning sign to Republicans across the country.”