How gender is playing out in the race for New Jersey governor

New polling shows that women are essential to U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill’s single-digit lead in the New Jersey governor’s race.

A Quinnipiac University poll shows Sherrill, the Democratic nominee, ahead of Republican Jack Ciattarelli, 50% to 44%, among likely voters. The poll surveyed more than 1,300 likely New Jersey voters from Oct. 9 to 13 with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.

But the poll released Wednesday also shows a gender gap between the candidates.

Sherrill has a 21-percentage-point advantage over Ciattarelli among women, and Ciattarelli has an 11-point lead among men, according to the poll.

Polls consistently reflected a gender divide in the run-up to last year’s presidential election. The New Jersey race is following a similar pattern with women favoring Democrats while men increasingly flock to the GOP.

Sherrill’s strong performance with women has been consistent throughout Quinnipiac‘s recent polls, but Ciattarelli may be solidifying and growing support with men as November approaches.

The poll also found more enthusiasm among respondents supporting Ciattarelli than those supporting Sherrill.

The results come after a September Quinnipiac poll found Sherrill winning women by a 20-point advantage. That survey showed Ciattarelli with only a 4-point lead among men, a smaller edge compared to his performance in the most recent poll.

Sherrill would be only the second woman to lead New Jersey, and while that may motivate some women to vote, her broad support among women isn’t necessarily because she’s a woman.

“That’s largely because she’s a Democrat,” said Kelly Dittmar, the director of research for the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University. She pointed to an October 2021 Monmouth poll that showed Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat, with a 25-point lead over Ciattarelli among women, while Ciattarelli had a 4-point lead among men.

Women nationally make up more of the Democratic Party base, while Republicans have found more success reaching men. That pattern is showing in New Jersey, and the poll results could show the “firming” of each party’s bases, Dittmar said.

Gender has also come up on the trail.

Ciattarelli has repeatedly accused Sherrill of focusing on gender during his stump speeches.

“Every single day, she’s gonna tell you she’s a woman. So I’m here to tell you I’m a man,” he said to laughs earlier this month at an event in Haddon Township. “I want you all to know.”

He added: “She’s gonna tell you that she’s a mother of four. I’ll tell you I’m a father of four.”

Sherrill talks about graduating with the first Naval Academy class of women eligible for combat roles on ships and aircraft, and about how being a mother influences her views on different policies from affordability to education, but she doesn’t explicitly campaign on her gender.

Ciattarelli’s campaign strategist Chris Russell said his team is “not interested in responding to skewed public polls” when asked about the gender gap results.

Russell said he disagrees with the methodology of determining likely voters, “which is why a lot of these public polls are consistently wrong.”

Sherrill’s campaign did not comment on the poll’s findings about the gender gap and instead attacked Ciattarelli as “extreme” and “out of touch.”