If the Sixers end up beating the Celtics, here is how it will happen
The best we can say is that the Sixers aren’t your usual first-round cupcakes. These three things will have to happen if an upset is going to happen.
The path is narrow and the odds of following it are long. But, hey, at least it exists. You can find it on a map. That’s more than you can usually say about a seven seed in the NBA playoffs.
Not much of a rallying cry, I know. But let’s keep things in perspective. The 76ers will head to Boston looking to become just the seventh No. 7 seed to win a playoff series since the field expanded to 16 teams in 1984. The odds are long, even if you factor in the six No. 8 seeds that have also won a playoff series. The Celtics are -900 favorites to advance to the Eastern Conference semifinals. Context is important.
The best we can say is that the Sixers aren’t your usual first-round cupcakes. In Tyrese Maxey, they not only have the NBA’s fifth-leading scorer, but also a player who has 41 games of postseason experience. Maxey’s 29.8 points per game in his last six postseason contests is higher than the scoring averages of either Jayson Tatum (28.7) or Jaylen Brown (21.3) in their last six.
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In Paul George, the Sixers have a veteran with as much playoff experience as both Tatum and Brown. He clearly isn’t the same player he was when he averaged 25.3 points in 54 postseason games from 2016-21. But he is uniquely built to defend the Celtics’ two dynamic wings. And we did just see him drop 39 points in a game, albeit against the Wizards.
In Nick Nurse, they have a coach who has never lost a playoff series in fewer than six games, and who is 27-20 overall.
These are easy things to snicker at. Maxey will be the third best player on the court behind Tatum and Brown. George will be 36 years old the day of Game 7. Nurse might be out of a job whenever the series ends.
This will probably be a quick series in the bad guys’ favor. But, if it isn’t, here is how it will unfold:
1. Jayson Tatum does more harm than good in a couple of games.
Even when he is 100% healthy, the Celtics superstar will have nights where he shoots his team out of a game. It doesn’t happen nearly as often as it did early in his career. That said, it’s an inherent part of the gig for an ultra high-volume scorer who does much of his work in isolation in the mid and long range.
Sixers fans are plenty familiar with the clunkiness that can result when a team runs its offense through an out-of-rhythm superstar. It isn’t a complete stretch to think that Tatum will be something less than the best version of himself, given that he is 16 games into a comeback from an Achilles injury that was supposed to sideline him for the entire season.
Wishful thinking? It might be. On the offensive side, at least.
David Murphy alerts
“He looks good,” said Sixers reserve forward Dominick Barlow, who figures to get some time against Tatum and Brown. “He’s making shots. I mean, obviously, coming back from that injury is not easy so credit to him for getting back and being on his recovery. I don’t know if anybody’s ever made it back this fast from an Achilles injury, but I’m worried about how the Philadelphia 76ers play basketball. We try to stop Jayson Tatum. Moving well, moving not well, don’t really matter.”
Tatum’s numbers were pretty close to their usual levels by the end of the regular season. In his last seven games, he averaged 25.1 points on 19.4 field goal attempts while shooting .355 from three-point range. That said, the efficiency wasn’t quite at the level he’d reached before injuring himself in last year’s playoff loss to the Knicks. His .515 effective field goal percentage in those seven games was materially lower than the .544 he posted from 2023-25.
“He’s a great player, right?,” Nurse said. “You have to work really hard to scheme for him. The things that he can do especially with the perimeter shooting he brings from range, and I think the footwork, the skill work, the hits and turnarounds. There’s a lot to guard there. We’ve been through it a lot with him. We’ve dug pretty deeply on this, on him and we feel like we’ve got a good game plan going in. You know, we’ll see.”
Game 1: Sixers at Celtics, 1 p.m. Sunday, ABC
Game 2: Sixers at Celtics, 7 p.m. Tuesday, NBCSN/Peacock
Game 3: Celtics at Sixers, 7 p.m. April 24, Prime Video
Game 4: Celtics at Sixers, 7 p.m. April 26, NBC/Peacock
*Game 5: Sixers at Celtics, TBD April 28
*Game 6: Celtics at Sixers, TBD April 30
*Game 7: Sixers at Celtics, TBD May 2
* If necessary
George should factor heavily in whatever coverages Nurse draws up for Tatum. The Celtics will certainly looki to get Tatum and Brown into matchups against Maxey and rookie V.J. Edgecombe, both of whom are relatively undersized for the modern NBA. The hope is that it can work to the Sixers’ advantage in a game or two, particularly given Edgecombe’s deceptive physicality and willingness to play the pest.
“Tatum is Tatum,” George said. “That’s the good thing about the great ones. Regardless if they’re limited or they’re not all the way themselves, they just adapt to the game. I’m sure he’ll be the one to tell you, he’s learning and picked up some things that he wasn’t doing before the injury that now has helped him to be a better player at this point in his career.
“It could be good or it could be bad that he’s probably not all the way back to where he was, because he’s evolved. He’s still producing, he’s still a big time player. … I’m expecting that same battle that he’s always presented.”
2. Maxey and Edgecombe both go off in a game.
We’ve seen it from Maxey. His 46 points in 52 minutes against the Knicks single-handedly won Game 5 two years ago. Edgecombe has it in him. They’ll both need to shoot the rock better than they have recently. Maxey has been hampered by a finger injury that has limited him to sub-32-percent from three-point range over the last month-and-a-half. Edgecombe is shooting .250 from downtown over his last six games. But we’ve seen Edgecombe make five-plus threes seven times this season. The Sixers will need a game or two like that.
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3. Andre Drummond and Adem Bona play like they did in the Sixers’ play-in win over the Magic.
Both big men finished with a positive plus-minus against Orlando. That hasn’t happened a heck of a lot during the Embiid era. Drummond in particular was a surprisingly strong asset, knocking down a couple of three-pointers while grabbing 10 rebounds and blocking three shots.
It’s hard to expect that on a nightly basis against a team as deep and well-rounded as the Celtics. But then, it’s hard to expect anything other than what the odds suggest. This is one of those series that will need to be graded on a curve.
