A look at a Sixers stretch run where they should primarily be spectators | David Murphy
The Sixers have all but locked up the No. 3 seed in the East. Their first round opponent is far less settled.
April is almost here, which means the bottom of the Eastern Conference looks like the Delco portion of the Blue Route (minus the discarded mattresses on the median). When sitting down to write this column, my intention was to project some sort of order onto the five-team cluster featuring Detroit, Brooklyn, Miami, Orlando and Charlotte, all of whom entered Saturday separated by three games for the final three playoff spots in the East. But I was quickly reminded that my desired objective was an impossible one, mostly because the NBA schedule makers pulled off some wizard-level stuff before the season.
Of the 33 games remaining amongst those five teams, I count 21 in which they will enter as almost certain underdogs. That does not include the six games in which two of that group will play each other. That leaves only six games that we can pencil in as wins, which, according to my math, boils down to an average of about one win per team.
So rather than drive ourselves bonkers by trying to play this thing out on paper, let’s instead set things up as best we can by sticking with what we know.
1) We know that the Sixers have all but locked up the No. 3 seed.
Heading into Saturday night’s game against the Timberwolves, the Sixers needed a combination of five wins/Pacers+Celtics losses to seal their place behind the Bucks and Raptors. With games in Dallas and Atlanta on Monday and Wednesday, the Sixers have an outside chance of entering Thursday’s showdown with the Bucks with an opportunity to lock things up and render their last three games meaningless. Regardless, with two games against the Bulls remaining, it would take a wild collapse for the Sixers to end up anywhere other than No. 3.
2) We know that Joel Embiid’s current “load management” break is likely a preview of things to come.
Given the fortuitous scheduling outlook, it makes plenty of sense to keep Embiid on the sidelines until Thursday’s game against the Bucks. Brett Brown will have an interesting balancing act on his hands if the Sixers wrap things up as early as is possible. On the one hand, you want Embiid healthy and as physically fresh as possible heading into the postseason. On the other hand, you want to keep him in game shape. By giving him six days off now, the Sixers can eliminate three games of wear and tear and risk of further injury -- in particular with regard to the left knee that sidelined him for a couple of weeks after the All-Star break -- and then manage the final four games of the season to get his conditioning to an optimal level.
One would assume that Brown will also be looking to give JJ Redick a blow heading into the playoffs. Heading into Saturday’s game in Minnesota, the 34-year-old veteran was averaging a career-high 31.4 minutes per game. That was in 71 games, which was already one more than he played in last year’s regular season. Tobias Harris was also averaging a career-high in minutes. Fun fact: If Harris were to start in each of the Sixers’ remaining games, he would finish the season with 83 starts (55 with the Clippers, 28 with the Sixers). Only three players have ever done that, at least as far back as data on Basketball-Reference.com goes.
3) We know that there is a strong possibility that the Sixers’ first-round opponent is determined by the results of these three games: Hornets at Pistons on Sunday, April 7; Magic at Hornets, and Heat at Nets on Wednesday, April 10, the last day of the regular season.
As noted above, it is virtually impossible to identify the favorite to emerge. The Hornets are the least likely. Even if they were to win both of their games against the Group of Five, and both of their “winnable” games at New Orleans and home against Cleveland, they’d still need to steal a game from either the Warriors, Jazz, or Raptors in order to reach 40 wins. The Pistons are probably the slight favorite, entering Saturday night’s game against the Blazers with 38 wins and closing out the season with games against the Grizzlies (home) and Knicks (road).
But don’t count out a rematch with the Heat, especially if the Sixers have nothing to play for when they host Miami in their second-to-last game. Heading into Saturday night’s game in New York, the Heat faced the prospect of needing to win just one of three of a home-and-home with the Celtics and a road game in Minnesota in order to have 39 wins with games against the Sixers and Nets remaining. That meant a realistic chance at finishing with 41 wins ahead of the Pistons’ 40 (at Indiana, vs. Indiana, at Oklahoma City, vs. Charlotte, vs. Memphis, at New York) and the Magic’s 39 or 40 (at Indiana on Saturday, at Toronto, vs. New York, vs. Atlanta, at Boston, at Charlotte). The Nets entered Saturday with 38 wins and games remaining Saturday vs. Boston, vs. Milwaukee, vs. Toronto, at Milwaukee, at Indiana, and vs. Miami.
If your head hurts reading that, imagine how it feels to write it. For the second straight season, a wild stretch run is in store for the Eastern Conference. This time, though, the Sixers’ principle role will likely be as onlooker.