Sixers-Raptors Game 3: Trend says to take Toronto in this quirky wager

An interesting note emerged from the folks at BetMGM that would require a wager against the Sixers. It’s a little deep in the weeds, but that’s often where profits hide.

Company analyst John Ewing points out that since 2005, teams down 0-2 in a series often get out to good starts in Game 3. The data company BetLabs has unearthed that teams in that 0-2 hole have covered in the first half of Game 3 at a rate of 63.3% since 2005 (93-54-3).

The line for tonight’s game varies by book. As of noon, BetMGM had Sixers -0.5 at -110, while FanDuel had an identical -0.5 at +110. There’s a big difference in -110 vs. +110, with the +110 more advantageous to the bettor.

Many places offer alternate spreads, but with worse odds. BetMGM had the Sixers +1.5 for the first half at a cost of -135. WynnBet also had the Sixers as +1.5, but with odds at -105.

The Sixers led at halftime by 18 in Game 1 and 15 in Game 2, so taking Toronto would be risky despite the trend that teams have covered 63 percent of the time in this spot. Most of those teams weren’t missing a starter (Scottie Barnes doubtful) nor staring at inspired stars Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey.

The Sixers were favored by 1.5 for the game with the over/under at 214.5. Road teams are 4-7 against the spread through the first three days of the playoffs. Utah is the only team that has been favored on the road, going 1-1 straight-up and against the number against Dallas, which is missing star Luka Doncic.