Belmont Stakes preview: Post time, odds, lineup, TV, predictions, and more
We the People is the favorite on Saturday. Can Derby winner Rich Strike strike it rich again?
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154th Belmont Stakes
When: Saturday, 6:44 p.m. (Race 11)
Where: Belmont Park, Elmont, N.Y.
TV: CNBC (3-5 p.m.), NBC (5-7 p.m.).
Distance: 1½ miles.
Purse: $1.5 million. First: $800,000. Second: $280,000. Third: $150,000. Fourth: $100,000. Fifth: $60,000. Sixth: $45,000. Seventh: $35,000. Eighth: $30,000.
Weather: Cloudy with a high of 75 degrees.
Staff picks
Ed Barkowitz: 5. Creative Minister, 6. Mo Donegal, 1. We the People, 8. Barber Road
Luke Reasoner: 1. We the People, 4. Rich Strike, 6. Mo Donegal, 3. Nest
Belmont bits
The favorite has won three of the last four Belmont Stakes: Justify in 2018, Tiz the Law in 2020, and Essential Quality last year. Tacitus, the 2019 favorite, ran second to Sir Winston.
From 2002-18, favorites won just twice.
The length of the race was moved back to the grinding 1½ miles last year. It was 1⅛ miles in 2020 because it was the first Triple Crown race run due to the pandemic.
The largest crowd, by far, for a Belmont Stakes was in 2004 when 120,139 watched as Birdstone (36-1) ruined Smarty Jones’ run for the Triple Crown. The next largest crowd was 103,222 in 2002 for Sarava (70-1), who killed War Emblem’s run at history while paying a race record $142.50.
Last year, $60.4 million was wagered on the Belmont Stakes from all sources. That number was up dramatically from $34 million during the height of the pandemic. The race record is $83 million in 2014.
Thunder Gulch (1995) is the last horse to win the Kentucky Derby and Belmont, but not the Preakness. American Pharaoh (2015) and Justify (2018) won all three Triple Crown races.
The feature (Race 11) is one of eight Grade I stakes races on Saturday’s card at Belmont Park. The others are in races 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10.
Celebrity chef Bobby Flay earlier this week bought himself into the owners’ group of favorite We the People. Hate to think what he might do if the horse finishes last.
Irad Ortiz, who is on Mo Donegal, was leading all jockeys this year in total earnings at $12,572,153 entering Wednesday. His younger brother Jose, who is on Nest, was fourth at $10.1 million. Both are riding horses trained by Todd Pletcher, the only trainer with multiple horses in Saturday’s field.
Sonny Leon, who is up on Rich Strike, is 19th in earnings this year at $3.7 million; $1.86 million (49.8%) came during his impeccable run on Rich Strike in the Kentucky Derby.
Strike two
Rich Strike, who won the Kentucky Derby despite enormous odds, is back for a shot at the Belmont. He skipped the Preakness. Here’s a look at the longest shots to win the Derby and how they fared in the most grueling of the Triple Crown races:
Won Derby (odds)/Fared at Belmont (odds)
2022 — Rich Strike (80-1)/TBD (7-2)
2019 — Country House (65-1)/Did not run
2009 — Mine That Bird (50-1)/Third (6-5)
2005 — Giacomo (50-1)/Seventh (10-1)
1999 — Charismatic (31-1)/Third (3-1)
1940 — Gallahadion (35-1)/Fifth (7-1)
1913 — Donerail (91-1)/Did not run
The Field
1 We the People (2-1)
Trainer: Rodolphe Brisset. Jockey: Flavien Prat.
Career earnings: $230,250
Career starts: 1st-2nd-3rd: 4-3-0-0
2022 earnings: $230,250
2022 starts: 1st-2nd-3rd: 4-3-0-0
Last three: Peter Pan Stakes (1st), Arkansas Derby (7th), Allowance/Oaklawn (1st).
Notable: Sired by Constitution, this colt is a hot topic this week. Also a grandson of Tiznow, a two-time winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, including in 2001 at Belmont Park.
2 Skippylongstocking (20-1)
Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr. Jockey: Manuel Franco.
Career earnings: $214,600
Career starts: 1st-2nd-3rd: 10-2-1-2
2022 earnings: $161,100
2022 starts: 1st-2nd-3rd: 5-1-0-1
Last three: Preakness Stakes (5th), Wood Memorial (3rd), Allowance/Gulfstream (1st).
Notable: Has one win in his last seven races. “I don’t know if another shocker can happen,” trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. told CANA News, “but we’re going to give it a go.”
3 Nest (8-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Jockey: José Ortiz.
Career earnings: $850,550
Career starts: 1st-2nd-3rd: 6-4-1-1
2022 earnings: $645,550
2022 starts: 1st-2nd-3rd: 3-2-1-0
Last three: Kentucky Oaks (2nd), Ashland Stakes (1st), Suncoast Stakes/Listed (1st).
Notable: She is the 24th filly to run in the Belmont, and the first since Unlimited Budget (6th) in 2013. Rags to Riches (2007) and Tanya (1905) are the two winners.
4 Rich Strike (7-2)
Trainer: Eric Reed. Jockey: Sonny Leon.
Career earnings: $1,971,289
Career starts: 1st-2nd-3rd: 8-2-0-3
2022 earnings: $1,932,500
2022 starts: 1st-2nd-3rd: 4-1-0-2
Last three: Kentucky Derby (1st), Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes (3rd), John Battaglia Stakes (4th).
Notable: Was 80-1 when he ran his last race. Neither jockey nor trainer has ever run a Belmont Stakes — they had not run in the Derby, either.
5 Creative Minister (6-1)
Trainer: Kenny McPeek. Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Career earnings: $322,095
Career starts: 1st-2nd-3rd: 4-2-1-1
2022 earnings: $322,095
2022 starts: 1st-2nd-3rd: 4-2-1-1
Last three: Preakness Stakes (3rd), Allowance/Churchill Downs (1st), Maiden/Keeneland (1st).
Notable: McPeek is back at the Belmont for the first time since 2013. He made a feeble attempt as a Wall Street stockbroker after college in the mid-’80s, but found his calling when Shug McGaughey hired him as a horse walker.
6 Mo Donegal (5-2)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Jockey: Irad Ortiz.
Career earnings: $711,800
Career starts: 1st-2nd-3rd: 6-3-0-2
2022 earnings: $514,000
2022 starts: 1st-2nd-3rd: 3-1-0-1
Last three: Kentucky Derby (5th), Wood Memorial (1st), Holy Bull Stakes (3rd).
Notable: Pletcher’s a three-time winner of the Belmont and can become the fourth trainer with at least four victories. Two of those trainers (Woody Stephens and D. Wayne Lukas) worked within the last 50 years.
7 Golden Glider (20-1)
Trainer: Mark Casse. Jockey: Dylan Davis.
Career earnings: $159,122
Career starts: 1st-2nd-3rd: 6-2-1-0
2022 earnings: $125,350
2022 starts: 1st-2nd-3rd: 5-1-1-0
Last three: Peter Pan Stakes (2nd), Blue Grass Stakes (4th), Tampa Bay Derby (4th).
Notable: The second-place finish in his last outing is deceiving. He was more than 10 lengths behind We the People, the opening favorite here.
8 Barber Road (10-1)
Trainer: John Ortiz. Jockey: Joel Rosario.
Career earnings: $650,720
Career starts: 1st-2nd-3rd: 9-2-4-1
2022 earnings: $550,000
2022 starts: 1st-2nd-3rd: 5-0-3-1
Last three: Kentucky Derby (6th), Arkansas Derby (2nd), Rebel Stakes (3rd).
Notable: Barber Road closed strong at the Derby to finish sixth as a 60-1 shot. They’re taking his blinkers off for this race.
Sources: Equibase, Inquirer research.