Tacitus and Intrepid Heart at the top of handicapper’s Belmont Stakes picks

Dick Jerardi says this is the "perfect race" for Tacitus, who officially finished in third place of the Kentucky Derby.

Jockey Tyler Gaffalione (right) rode War of Will to a win at the Preakness Stakes. It didn't have the controversy of the Kentucky Derby, though Bodexpress threw jockey John Velazquez at the start and ran the race riderless. What will the Belmont have in store?Read moreSteve Helber / AP

by Ed Barkowitz

Published Jun. 7, 2019, 7:00 a.m. ET

Staff picks, stats and horse racing expert Dick Jerardi’s observations for each horse in Saturday’s race:

About the race

When: Saturday, 6:35 p.m. post time (Race 11)

Where: Belmont Park — Elmont, N.Y.

TV: NBC 4-7 p.m. (NBCSN has undercard starting at 2:30 p.m.)

Streaming: NBCSports.com, NBC Sports app

Wagering Info: 1-888-BET-2-WIN or www.parxracing.com/phonebet.php

Quick chart

PP. Horse

1. Joevia

30-1

PP. Horse

6. Spinoff

15-1

PP. Horse

2. Everfast

12-1

PP. Horse

7. Sir Winston

12-1

PP. Horse

3. Master Fencer

8-1

PP. Horse

8. Intrepid Heart

10-1

PP. Horse

4. Tax

15-1

PP. Horse

9. War of Will

2-1

PP. Horse

5. Bourbon War

12-1

PP. Horse

10. Tacitus

9-5

Distance: 1 1/2 miles. Weights: 126 pounds.

Purse: $1.5 million. First place: $900,000. Second: $300,000. Third: $165,000.

Fourth: $90,000. Fifth: $45,000.

Weather.com: Partly cloudy, mid-70s.

Staff supers

1st

Dick Jerardi

10-Tacitus

Ed Barkowitz

10-Tacitus

Mike Jensen

8-Intrepid Heart

2nd

Dick Jerardi

8-Intrepid Heart

Ed Barkowitz

9-War of Will

Mike Jensen

9-War of Will

3rd

Dick Jerardi

6-Spinoff

Ed Barkowitz

7-Sir Winston

Mike Jensen

10-Tacitus

4th

Dick Jerardi

9-War of Will

Ed Barkowitz

5-Bourbon War

Mike Jensen

2-Everfast

The Field

1 Joevia - 30-1

Owner: Michael & Jeff Fazio.

Trainer: Gregg Sacco. Jockey: Jose Lezcano.

Career Earnings: $131,600.

2019 Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 4-1-2-0

Last three: Long Branch Stakes (1st), Wood Memorial (11th), Private Terms Stakes (2nd)

Dick Jerardi’s breakdown: Won’t be hard to find. Only frontrunner in the field will be in the lead for as long as he lasts. Hard to imagine he lasts the whole way.

2 Everfast - 12-1

Owner: Calumet Farm. Trainer: Dale Romans, Jockey: Luis Saez

Career Earnings: $464,805

2019 Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 6-0-2-0

Last three: Preakness (2nd), Pat Day Mile (5th), Florida Derby (9th)

DJ’s breakdown: Caught a live rail in the Preakness to finish an impossible second. Was 29-1 to win, but closer to 100-1 in exotics. Can’t use anywhere.

3 Master Fencer - 8-1

Owner: Katsumi Yoshizawa. Trainer: Koichi Tsunoda. Jockey: Julien Leparoux.

Career Earnings: $234,392

2019 Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 4-1-1-0

Last three: Kentucky Derby (6th), Fukuryu Stakes (2nd), Hyacinth Stakes (4th)

DJ’s breakdown: Japanese horse came with an amazing final quarter mile run from last in the Derby, but those rallies are often illusions against tired horses.

4 Tax - 15-1

Owner: R A Hill Stable, et. al. Trainer: Danny Gargan. Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

Career Earnings: $326,300

2019 Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-1-1-0

Last three: Kentucky Derby (14th), Wood Memorial (2nd), Withers Stakes (1st)

DJ’s breakdown: Had no traffic issues from the inside in the Derby. Just could not keep up and was wisely eased up in the stretch. If he hated the slop, he is a maybe.

5 Bourbon War - 12-1

Owner: Bourbon Lane & Lake Star stables.

Trainer: Mark Hennig. Jockey: Mike Smith.

Career Earnings: $202,100

2019 Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 4-1-1-0

Last three: Preakness Stakes (8th), Florida Derby (4th), Fountain of Youth Stakes (2nd)

DJ’s breakdown: Not going to get the right setup in a race where the pace looks moderate and uncontested. Did not fire at all in the Preakness.

6 Spinoff - 15-1

Owner: Wertheimer & Frere. Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Jockey: Javier Castellano.

Career Earnings: $260,000

2019 Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-1-1-0

Last three: Kentucky Derby (18th), Louisiana Derby (2nd), allowance/Tampa Bay (1st)

DJ’s breakdown: No response by the three-eighths pole in the Derby Fits pattern of trainer Todd Pletcher’s Belmont winners. Run Derby weekend, wait for Belmont.

7 Sir Winston - 12-1

Owner: Tracy Farmer. Trainer: Mark Casse. Jockey: Joel Rosario.

Career Earnings: $161,773

2019 Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 4-0-1-0

Last three: Peter Pan Stakes (2nd), Blue Grass Stakes (7th), Tampa Bay Derby (5th)

DJ’s breakdown: Got a dream setup in the Peter Pan when he closed late behind a hot pace to run the race of his life. Unlikely to repeat with different pace scenario.

8 Intrepid Heart - 10-1

Owner: Robert & Lawana Low. Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Jockey: John Velazquez.

Career Earnings: $140,400

2019 Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-2-0-1

Last three: Peter Pan Stakes (3rd), allowance/Keeneand (1st), maiden/Oaklawn Park (1st)

DJ’s breakdown: Lightly-raced $750,000 2-year-old purchase should be able to get into a comfortable rhythm just off the early pace and still be around at the finish.

9 War of Will - 2-1

Owner: Gary Barber. Trainer: Mark Casse. Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione.

Career Earnings: $1,491,569

2019 Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 5-3-0-0

Last three: Preakness Stakes (1st), Kentucky Derby (7th), Louisiana Derby (9th)

DJ’s breakdown: Got a dream trip in Preakness win running on live rail and never having to leave it. Really thought he should have won by more against weak group.

War of Will wins the Preakness

10 Tacitus - 9-5

Owner: Juddmonte Farms. Trainer: Bill Mott. Jockey: Jose Ortiz.

Career Earnings: $953,000

2019 Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-2-0-1

Last three: Kentucky Derby (3rd), Wood Memorial (1st), Tampa Bay Derby (1st)

DJ’s breakdown: This is one of the best bred horses in the modern history of the Triple Crown and the Belmont is the perfect race for a colt whose best attribute is his stamina.

The Greatest Ever

2020 Triple Crown schedule

Kentucky Derby: Saturday, May 2

Preakness Stakes: Saturday, May 16

Belmont Stakes: Saturday, June 6