And the Kentucky Derby winner is ... | Dick Jerardi

Now that Justify has dispensed with the last of the Kentucky Derby caveats, by proving rather decisively that a horse that did not race as a 2-year-old can indeed win at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday of May, we can concentrate on the factors that really matter.

Which horse is fastest and, more important, is likely to be the most comfortable during Saturday’s race? This year, the answer, I was pretty sure, was the same horse — Omaha Beach, the horse that was going to be my pick.

My theory will not get tested as the morning-line favorite had to be scratched late Wednesday with a breathing problem due to an entrapped epiglottis. So I am on to Plan B, which you must have at the track.

I thought Maximum Security had a decent chance before Omaha Beach was scratched. I think he has a great chance now because the two horses had similar on-the-lead or just-off-the-lead running styles. Now, there is one fewer horse with a similar style for Maximum Security to face.

Am as I confident as I was in Justify last year or California Chrome in 2014? No. It’s hard to be that confident when Maximum Security will have to beat not one, not two, but three Bob Baffert-trained horses.

Maximum Security is the only unbeaten horse in the race, but as much is unknown about him as is known. Nobody trains horses like Jason Servis, John’s brother. They go slow, slower, slowest, even in workouts. But Jason won with an amazing 45 percent of his starters at the Gulfstream Park championship meet. So this colt has to be very live.

There is the hot trainer theory and the fact that Maximum Security is one of the few horses with quality early speed and is the only horse with a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure. And the colt has two such figures in addition to four wins by a combined 38 lengths. Yes, he could have been claimed for $16,000 in his Dec. 20 debut, but I’m not sure that is relevant anymore.

I see Maximum Security getting the kind of trip all the recent Derby winners have gotten — near the front, comfortable, with all or nearly all of the other 19 horses behind him by the first turn.

Comfort is everything for high-strung race horses. Imagine you are driving on I-95 South into Center City during the morning rush hour or on River Road in Bucks County on a lazy afternoon. Much more comfortable on the country road.

Same deal with horses. A keyed-up, boxed-in horse trying to get out of traffic is almost never going to run to his best ability. A horse without so much traffic is much more likely to run his best.

Betting the Derby is mandatory, but I liked last year much better when I had 40-1 on Justify in the future book. I knew I was winning. It was just a question of how much more I could win if I had the right horses behind him in exactas, trifectas and superfectas. It was OK but not enough. It’s never enough.

I thought I was in even better shape this year when I got 75-1 on Parx star Maximus Mischief in November. There is no doubt in my mind he could have won the Derby, but he got hurt a few months ago and has been retired. Goodbye 75-1.

My live longshot in this Derby is By My Standards. Nothing much happened in this colt’s first three starts and then, without warning, everything changed. He dominated in a maiden race and then won the Louisiana Derby. That was good, but how he has looked every morning at Churchill has been even better. The only final workout I liked as much as By My Standard’s was Omaha Beach’s.

These 3-year-olds sometimes just blossom overnight. Smarty Jones and Barbaro were unbeaten when they got to Kentucky. But they were the best horses on the track in the final days leading up to the Derby. You just sort of knew with both of them. I thought Omaha Beach might be that horse this year.

Baffert is going to for his record-tying sixth Derby with a strong three-horse crew of Game Winner, Roadster and Improbable. Any of them could win. I like Improbable best and not just because a very good friend got 125-1 Breeders’ Cup on Friday morning before the colt dominated an undercard race. This horse just has the look of a potential star.

Game Winner was the 2-year-old champ and has never run a poor race. Baffert texted me last summer that he thought Roadster might be the next superstar. The colt had a throat issue that caused him to miss six months but is 2-for-2 this year, including a win over Game Winner in the Santa Anita Derby.

Bill Mott is on any list of America’s 10 best trainers. He has not won the Derby, mostly because he hasn’t tried very often. Well, Mott is definitely trying with Wood Memorial Winner Tacitus who will be ridden by the brilliant Jose Ortiz.

So there we have it. Maximum Security over By My Standards will be my key exacta, but it won’t be my only one.