Kentucky Derby picks, odds, TV, and trivia
Kendrick Carmouche, a jockey with ties to Parx in Bensalem, is looking to make some history aboard No. 20 Bourbonic. The opening favorite is the No. 14 Essential Quality.
Todd Pletcher’s batting average at the Kentucky Derby reminds you of a Phillies center fielder. But, with two wins in 55 starts, the legendary trainer is not slowing down. He has four more contenders running Saturday as he looks for winner No. 3.
One of his entries is the No. 20 Bourbonic, a terrific name that Merriam-Webster ought to include in its dictionary as an adjective. Kendrick Carmouche, who has extensive experience at Parx, is aboard Bourbonic. He’s a long shot, opening at 30-1, from a position that has won once (Big Brown, 2008) in 17 Derbies.
Here’s a closer look at Saturday’s 147th running of the crown jewel of horse racing. Good to have it back on the first Saturday in May.
Details
What: 147th Kentucky Derby
When: Saturday, 6:57 p.m. post time.
Where: Churchill Downs (Race 12 of 14), Louisville, Ky.
Distance: 1¼ miles.
TV: NBCSN, 12-2:30 p.m.; NBC 2:30-7:30 p.m. Streaming: NBCSports.com and the NBC Sports app.
Other Triple Crown races: Preakness Stakes, May 15; Belmont Stakes, June 5.
Predictions
Vegas Vic/Inquirer handicapper: 14-Essential Quality, 1-Known Agenda, 15-Rock Your World, 17-Highly Motivated
Ed Barkowitz: 17-Highly Motivated, 14-Essential Quality, 12-Helium, 1-Known Agenda
Luke Reasoner/Inquirer news designer: 14-Essential Quality, 1-Known Agenda, 16-King Fury, 7-Mandaloun
The weather
The temperature will be in the 60s around post time with a 20% chance of precipitation, according to Weather.com.
Horsing around
“I think it’ll be a good spot,” trainer Brad Cox said of favorite Essential Quality’s No. 14 post. “He’s got good tactical speed that he’ll be able to get into a good position from there.”
It’s been 60 years since a No. 14 has won the Derby (Carry Back, 1961), the second-longest drought for a post position. A No. 17 has never won, which could be trouble for Highly Motivated.
Cox grew up near Churchill Downs and will try to become the first Louisville native to train the winner. That’s hard to believe.
This will be the first Derby to have a 20-stall starting gate. Previously, a 14-stall gate was used with an auxiliary gate for the other six horses. This created a gap between the Nos. 14 and 15 horses.
“With the new gate,” said Todd Pletcher, trainer of the No. 20 Bourbonic, “we’re hopeful that things will be better than they were in the past and the post won’t be that bad.”
Around 45,000 fans are expected to be permitted to attend because of the pandemic, less than 100,000 of what it normally would be on Derby Day. Economic impact for the Louisville area is estimated at $34.6 million, a far cry from the usual $400 million Derby weekend haul.
Vicki Oliver, who trains No. 13 Hidden Stash, is the 18th woman to try to win horse racing’s most prestigious race. Shelley Riley had the best finish for a woman trainer when Casual Lies ran second to Lil E Tee in 1992. The first female trainer was Mary Hirsch in 1937 with the appropriately named No Sir, which ran 13th.
Part of the ownership group for Hot Rod Charlie are five guys who played football at Brown. This is their first Derby, and their nickname for their thoroughbred is Chuck.
Track announcer Travis Stone, observing the easygoing personality of the No. 12 Helium, said: “He only gets worked up when it’s time to eat. And he never misses a meal.” Same can be said for The Inquirer sports staff.
This will be the first Derby to prohibit the use of Lasix, a diuretic used to prevent bleeding in horses.
Bourbonic’s dam is Dancing Afleet by 2005 Preakness winner Afleet Alex, whose owners partnered for Alex’s Lemonade Stand in 2005. A wing at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia is named for Alex Scott, who created the lemonade stand in 2000 to raise funds for pediatric cancer.
Kendrick Carmouche, Bourbonic’s jockey who has ridden for years at Parx, will try to become the first Black jockey to win the Derby since Jimmy Winkfield in 1902. That was in the era when jockeys of color ruled the sport.
Purse
Total: $3,000,000. First place: $1,860,000. Second place: $600,000. Third place: $300,000. Fourth place: $150,000. Fifth place: $90,000.
The standings
Horses accumulated points for finishing in the top four of the 35 prep races held around the world. The top 20 horses were then eligible for the Kentucky Derby. Here is the standings of those running on Saturday. The number in parentheses is their post position:
The field
1 Known Agenda - 6-1
Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Career Earnings: $541.700.
2021 Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-2-0-0
Career Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 6-3-1-1
Last three: Florida Derby (1st), Allowance/Gulfstream (1st), Sam F. Davis Stakes (5th).
Notable: Looking to become the first son of Curlin to win a Kentucky Derby but got a rough draw. Won the Florida Derby, which is named after Curlin, by nearly three lengths.
2 Like the King 50-1
Trainer: Wesley Ward. Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke.
Career Earnings: $200,680.
2021 Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 2-1-1-0
Career Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 6-3-2-1
Last three: Jeff Ruby Steaks (1st), Battaglia Stakes (2nd), Allowance/Turfway (1st).
Notable: Has hit the board in all six of his outings, though this is a huge step up in competition. None of his three wins have come on dirt.
3 Brooklyn Strong 50-1
Trainer: Daniel Velazquez. Jockey: Umberto Rispoli.
Career Earnings: $225,000.
2021 Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 1-0-0-0
Career Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 5-3-0-1
Last three: Wood Memorial (5th), Remsen Stakes (1st), Sleepy Hollow Stakes (1st)
Notable: Slipped into the field when three horses ahead of him in the standings dropped out. Hustled to Louisville after working out at Parx on Monday. Has run just once since this year, finishing fifth on April 3.
4 Keepmeinmind 50-1
Trainer: Robertino Diodoro. Jockey: David Cohen.
Career Earnings: $424,987.
2021 Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 2-0-0-0
Career Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 6-1-2-1
Last three: Blue Grass Stakes (5th), Rebel Stakes (6th), Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (1st).
Notable: Two disappointing runs followed his only career victory, which came at Churchill Downs.
5 Sainthood 50-1
Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Jockey: Corey Lanerie.
Career Earnings: $91,900.
2021 Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-1-2-0
Career Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-1-2-0
Last three: Jeff Ruby Steaks (2nd), Maiden/Fair Grounds (1st), Maiden/Gulfstream (2nd).
Notable: Same owners as 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify. One of four horses in the field trained by Pletcher.
6 O Besos 20-1
Trainer: Greg Foley. Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza.
Career Earnings: $172,624.
2021 Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-1-0-1
Career Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 5-2-0-1
Last three: Louisiana Derby (3rd), Risen Star Stakes (4th), Allowance/Fair Grounds (1st).
Notable: Named for his parents Orb and Snuggs and Kisses. Besos is Spanish for kisses. It has nothing to do with the fellow who founded Amazon.
7 Mandaloun 15-1
Trainer: Brad Cox. Jockey: Florent Geroux.
Career Earnings: $361,252.
2021 Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-1-0-1
Career Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 5-3-0-1
Last three: Louisiana Derby (6th), Risen Star Stakes (1st), Lecomte Stakes (3rd).
Notable: Was the 6-5 favorite in his most recent race and came away sixth, a showing his trainer still can’t explain.
8 Medina Spirit 15-1
Trainer: Bob Baffert. Jockey: John Velazquez.
Career Earnings: $315,200.
2021 Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 4-1-3-0
Career Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 5-2-3-0
Last three: Santa Anita Derby (2nd), San Felipe Stakes (2nd), Robert Lewis Stakes (1st).
Notable: Baffert is looking for his seventh Derby win, which would pass Ben “Plain Ben” Jones for most among trainers. Baffert would be on a three-race streak here if not for Maximum Security’s DQ two years ago.
9 Hot Rod Charlie 8-1
Trainer: Doug O’Neill. Jockey: Flavien Prat.
Career Earnings: $1,005,700.
2021 Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 2-1-0-1
Career Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 7-2-1-2
Last three: Louisiana Derby (1st), Robert Lewis Stakes (3rd), Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (2nd).
Notable: Jockey Flavien Prat filed and won the objection that led to Country House winning the 2019 Derby at 65-1 odds, the longest shot to win in more than 100 years.
10 Midnight Bourbon 20-1
Trainer: Steve Asmussen. Jockey: Mike Smith.
Career Earnings: $461,420.
2021 Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-1-1-1
Career Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 7-2-2-3
Last three: Louisiana Derby (2nd), Risen Star Stakes (3rd), Lecomte Stakes (1st).
Notable: Had some frightening moments earlier in the week when he got loose from his handlers in the stable area at Churchill.
11 Dynamic One 20-1
Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Jockey: Jose Ortiz.
Career Earnings: $194,120.
2021 Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-1-1-0
Career Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 5-1-2-0
Last three: Wood Memorial (2nd), Maiden/Aqueduct (1st), Maiden/Gulfstream (4th).
Notable: Pletcher has four horses entered, and will increase his record of 55 starts. He’s had two winners: Super Saver (2010) and Always Dreaming (2017).
12 Helium 50-1
Trainer: Mark Casse. Jockey: Julien Leparoux.
Career Earnings: $287,763.
2021 Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 1-1-0-0
Career Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-3-0-0
Last three: Tampa Bay Derby (1st), Display Stakes (1st), Maiden/Woodbine (1st).
Notable: Earned a place in the Derby by winning his final prep race in Tampa as a 15-1 shot. A lot of good karma around Tampa Bay these last seven months or so.
13 Hidden Stash 50-1
Trainer: Victoria Oliver. Jockey: Rafael Bejarano.
Career Earnings: $231,062.
2021 Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-0-1-1
Career Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 7-2-1-2
Last three: Blue Grass Stakes (4th), Tampa Bay Derby (2nd), Sam F. Davis Stakes (3rd).
Notable: Oliver is the Derby’s first woman trainer in six years. “I wouldn’t call myself [a role model],” she told the Lexington Courier Journal, “but if someone aspires to do it, I think that would be great.”
14 Essential Quality 2-1
Trainer: Brad Cox. Jockey: Luis Saez.
Career Earnings: $2,265,144.
2021 Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 2-2-0-0
Career Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 5-5-0-0
Last three: Blue Grass Stakes (1st), Southwest Stakes (1st), Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (1st).
Notable: Saez, who was on Maximum Security when he was DQ’d in the 2019 Derby, is aboard this year’s morning-line favorite. A gray horse hasn’t won here since Giacomo 16 years ago.
15 Rock Your World 5-1
Trainer: John Sadler. Jockey: Joel Rosario.
Career Earnings: $546,600.
2021 Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-3-0-0
Career Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-3-0-0
Last three: Santa Anita Derby (1st), Pasadena Stakes (1st), Maiden/Santa Anita (1st).
Notable: Three of the last nine Santa Anita winners went on to win here: I’ll Have Another (2012), California Chrome (2014) and Justify (2018). His run at Santa Anita was his first on dirt.
16 King Fury 20-1
Trainer: Ken McPeek. Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Career Earnings: $262,739.
2021 Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 1-1-0-0
Career Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 6-3-0-0
Last three: Lexington Stakes (1st), Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (2nd), Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (7th).
Notable: Trainer McPeak is winless in six starts here, his first coming 26 years ago when Tejano Run placed second to Thunder Gulch. King Fury is named after heavyweight champion Tyson Fury.
17 Highly Motivated 10-1
Trainer: Chad Brown. Jockey: Javier Castellano.
Career Earnings: $320,050.
2021 Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 2-0-1-1
Career Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 5-2-2-1
Last three: Blue Grass Stakes (2nd), Gotham Stakes (3rd), Nyquist Stakes/Black (1st).
Notable: Castellano is winless in 14 Derby tries. Lost the Blue Grass by a neck to Essential Quality, the favorite here.
18 Super Stock 30-1
Trainer: Steve Asmussen. Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Career Earnings: $804,762.
2021 Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 2-1-0-0
Career Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 8-2-2-2
Last three: Arkansas Derby (1st), Rebel Stakes (4th), Street Sense Stakes (2nd).
Notable: The most experienced runner here, he’s hit the board in six of his last seven outings. Asmussen’s dad, Keith, is part of the ownership group.
19 Soup and Sandwich 30-1
Trainer: Mark Casse. Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione.
Career Earnings: $203,875.
2021 Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-2-1-0
Career Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-2-1-0
Last three: Florida Derby (2nd), Allowance/Tampa Bay (1st), Maiden/Gulfstream (1st).
Notable: One of three in the field sired by Into Mischief, along with Mandaloun and Highly Motivated. Did not run as a 2-year-old but did well to finish second at the Florida Derby.
20 Bourbonic 30-1
Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche.
Career Earnings: $465,880.
2021 Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 3-2-1-0
Career Starts-1st-2nd-3rd: 6-3-1-0
Last three: Wood Memorial (1st), Allowance/Parx (2nd), Optional claiming/Aqueduct (1st).
Notable: Carmouche, the Derby’s first Black jockey in eight years, won the Wood Memorial at 72-1. “If you don’t dream [of racing in the Derby],” he told the Louisville Courier Journal, “it’s never going to happen.”
Sources: Inquirer research, Equibase.com