Maximum Security, disqualified from the Kentucky Derby, is the Haskell favorite

Eight days after the Triple Crown ended, the horse that was officially “17th” in the Kentucky Derby emerged from his Monmouth Park stall and ran for the first time since that bizarre first Saturday in May.

On paper, Maximum Security did not look as if he could lose the Pegasus Stakes. His odds were 1-20 (bet $20 to win $1). The colt that crossed the wire first in the Derby had never finished behind a horse in five lifetime races. He was clearly the best horse in the Derby before the Churchill Downs stewards decided to disqualify him.

So what happened on June 16 at Monmouth? Maximum Security stumbled badly at the start, was hounded the entire way by King for a Day, then was passed by that horse in the stretch and finished second, beaten by one length.

How could that happen? Very simple. King for a Day ran too fast. Maximum Security did not go off form. He was just beaten by a horse that ran the race of his life.

The Beyer Speed Figures pointed out Maximum Security as the most likely Derby winner. The colt ran right to his figures. He did it again in the Pegasus. It just wasn’t good enough to win that race. His 100 Beyer figure was just one point below what he got in the Kentucky Derby and Florida Derby.

So Maximum Security remains the horse to beat in the $1 million Haskell Invitational on Saturday at Monmouth. King for a Day is back to try again. If the Pegasus was not an outlier, he obviously has a chance.

When trainer Bob Baffert brings a horse to the Haskell, he has more than just a chance. He has won the race eight times,

“We’re surprised when we lose,” Baffert said. “We’re not surprised when we win.”

Baffert shipped the rapidly improving Mucho Gusto from his Southern California base. The colt has five wins, a second, and a third in seven lifetime starts.

Everfast was second in the Preakness. Joevia was third in the Belmont Stakes. Both those results, however, look like flukes as each horse was aided by running near the rail on days when being on the inside was a huge edge.

The seven-horse field will be completed by two Parx Racing-based long shots, Spun to Run and Bethlehem Road, each with back stories much better than their chances of winning.

If Maximum Security runs his typical race, the Parx horses would have to improve by about six lengths to have a chance.

Bethlehem Road, trained by Dee Curry, never had to win a race to be declared a major success.

The horse was supposed to be sold as a yearling, but, for no apparent reason one day, his head was turned completely to the side. After many tests, it was discovered Bethlehem Road had a tumor growing inside his inner ear. Surgery removed the tumor, but the head still wasn’t perfectly straight. Racing seemed unlikely.

Somehow, after an incredible amount of work before Curry got him and since she got him, Bethlehem Road got to the races April 1 at Parx. And won easily. Then, he won a second time and a third time in the May 21 Parx Spring Derby.

Curry sent the unbeaten colt to the June 22 Ohio Derby. You can probably put a line through that race as the horse was badly bothered at the start and bumped repeatedly before checking in a distant fourth.

Spun to Run, trained by Carlos Guerrero, does not have that dramatic a backstory, but the colt has not raced since March 23 after surgery for an entrapped epiglottis, the same problem that kept morning-line favorite Omaha Beach out of the Derby.

Spun to Run will get blinkers for the first time in the Haskell. Guerrero thinks the blinkers will move Spun to Run up five lengths. If he’s right, Spun to Run will be good enough to win.

Even with his Derby DQ and Pegasus loss, Maximum Security remains a slight leader for 3-year-old champion. But he needs to win some more.

“This race is really important in the campaign for 3-year-old champion,” trainer Jason Servis said.

How this Haskell will be run is the biggest unanswered question.

Every horse in the race, with the exception of Everfast, either races on or just off the lead. Will the pace be as hot and contested as it appears it might? How will some horses that are farther back than they have ever been react to being out of their comfort zones? Is Maximum Security, with a clean break, just faster than the others?

The Haskell will answer those questions and many more. If Maximum Security wins, there will be no question about the leader in the 3-year-old division. If he doesn’t, that race will be wide open as we head for the Travers in August and the Pennsylvania Derby in September.