Fear factors: Ranking the Eagles’ road to the Super Bowl, from the real Rams to the fraud Bears

It’s a weird year in the NFL. Each of the traditional powers is missing something. Everything we fret about with the Eagles are worries in Kansas City and Buffalo.

The Chargers have failed to take the next step. The Lions and Ravens might miss the playoffs. Brock Purdy just threw three interceptions against the Panthers. Drake Maye is a great quarterback. Do the Patriots really have a great roster?

Something to be thankful for: Nobody else is great, either.

We’ll see that on Friday, when the Eagles host the Bears. Chicago is among the more fraudulent 8-3 teams we’ve seen.

Here is a look at all of the NFC teams that matter more than the Bears.

It sure feels like 2025 is setting up for a Rams-Eagles NFC championship game that could launch an era-defining rivalry. The only thing missing right now is a big Rams win. The Eagles have beaten them four times over the last three seasons after initially replacing them as NFC champs in the 2022 season. But the Rams have walked away from the last two outings feeling like the Eagles’ equals if not betters.

» READ MORE: Nick Sirianni just gave Kevin Patullo a vote of confidence. He didn’t have a choice.

First came that snowy 28-22 playoff loss when the Rams gave away six points on fumbles and still had a first down on the Eagles’ 21-yard line with 1 minute, 25 seconds remaining and a chance for a go-ahead touchdown. Then came Week 3, when L.A. blew a 26-7 lead and still had a shot at a game-winning 44-yard field goal with three seconds left only to have Jordan Davis block it and score a touchdown to boot.

The Rams are due. Sean McVay is too good of a coach, Matthew Stafford too good of a quarterback, and Les Snead too good of an executive to not eventually announce it to the rest of the world. What they’ve done in the four years since they won the Super Bowl is every bit as impressive as the mini-dynasty that Nick Sirianni, Jalen Hurts, and Howie Roseman have put together.

Snead and McVay have orchestrated an incredible turnaround on par with the Eagles post-2017. Stafford is one of only four players remaining on either side of the football who played at least 20% of the offensive snaps in 2021, when the Rams won the Super Bowl (The others: OT Rob Havenstein, TE Tyler Higbee, CB Darious Williams). They exited their Super Bowl with a bloated cap sheet and just one first-round pick between 2017 and ’25. Now, suddenly, they are the most impressive team in the NFL. The only impressive team, arguably, along with maybe the Colts. Since losing to the Eagles, their only loss was in overtime to the division rival 49ers (more on them later). They’ve beaten the Colts, the Ravens, the Jaguars, the 49ers, the Seahawks, and the Bucs. Of their six straight wins, five have been by at least two touchdowns. Of their nine overall wins, seven have come against teams whose Super Bowl odds rank in the top half of the NFL.

The eye test says Detroit is a team nobody should want to face, particularly at home. But they wouldn’t even make the playoffs if they started today. And they would need to overcome some considerable odds if they hadn’t pulled out an overtime win over the Giants on Sunday. The Lions’ last six games are all losable: on the road against the Rams, Vikings, and Bears; at home against Green Bay, Dallas, and Pittsburgh.

Don’t get it twisted. They are a serious threat, one of two teams in the NFC who would have a strong argument to make to be favored over the Eagles in a playoff game at home. That’s a long shot to happen, given the tiebreaker the Eagles hold. But the Lions’ 16-9 loss at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 11 didn’t exactly establish them as the definitive favorites even at home.

Tampa Bay has one of the easiest remaining schedules in the NFL. Arizona, New Orleans, Atlanta, Miami, and Carolina twice. Find me two losses among those, assuming Baker Mayfield starts at quarterback. Even if Mayfield misses a week or two with his sprained nonthrowing shoulder, the Bucs should be able to finish atop the putrid NFC South. That means they have six weeks to get Mayfield and Chris Godwin healthy. Which means they could easily be a threat once the playoffs arrive.

Surprised? You shouldn’t be. Like I said, the field is weird this year. Who else would you put ahead of San Francisco? The Eagles are the only legitimate contender of the NFC’s three-loss teams. They already beat Green Bay on the road. Seattle is quarterbacked by Sam Darnold and will be playing as a wild card with the Rams winning the division. The Bears are the fakest of them all. You’ll see that on Friday.

» READ MORE: Eagles QB Jalen Hurts deserves criticism, but what are we arguing about?

The 49ers? They are faker than they usually are. The Fred Warner injury — out for the season — was the final deal-breaker. They sorely miss Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk on the offensive side. San Francisco is only a threat to the Eagles if the Eagles turn out to be the team they’ve looked to be over the last several weeks. That team is capable of losing to anybody with a competent quarterback and a great head coach.

This is not recency bias. The Cowboys would be second on this list if you could guarantee me that they would make the postseason. As it stands now, they will probably need to win two out of three against the Chiefs (home), Lions (road), and Chargers (home) just to have a reasonable chance of qualifying for the postseason. And that’s assuming they beat the Vikings, Commanders, and Giants.

That being said …

If all of that happens, then we’d be foolish to consider the Eagles as anything better than a coin flip in a playoff game against the Cowboys, whether at home or on the road. Dallas has outplayed them even this season, once in a game the Eagles should have lost and, more recently, in a game the Eagles should have won. In both games this season, the Eagles have struggled to find an answer for CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Dak Prescott is playing at a near-MVP level and gives the Cowboys the advantage at quarterback. Mostly, this is a referendum on the rest of the NFC.

Look, Darnold has been better than anybody could have envisioned after the Jets drafted him at No. 3 overall. But he is still the biggest reason to doubt that Seattle has been anything more than the beneficiary of a light schedule. The Seahawks’ best wins have come on the road in Pittsburgh in Week 2 and on the road in Jacksonville in Week 6. It’s definitely worth something that they put up 414 yards of total offense and nearly beat the Rams despite Darnold throwing four interceptions. But, then, Darnold threw four interceptions.

Jordan Love is the most overrated quarterback in the NFL, and Matt LaFleur might be the most overrated play-caller. Not a good combination. The Eagles already beat Green Bay at Lambeau Field on a night when a better team would have beaten them. No worries here.

For whatever reason, I’ve watched more of the Bears this season than virtually any other team. At no point have they looked capable of beating even a semicompetent team. That holds true for some of the games that they’ve actually won. Caleb Williams is missing something. I think we will see that on Friday.