Only one plan makes sense for Justin Crawford, unfortunately

You’ve probably heard the old football wisdom that a team with two quarterbacks actually has none. The same is probably true of a baseball team with four corner outfielders.

So you can understand the lack of patience on the part of Phillies fans who wake up each morning with the hope that it will be the day that the organization promotes Justin Crawford to the major league roster. Every night is the night before Christmas except Christmas never comes.

It isn’t going to come. Not any time soon. At least, not if the Phillies understand the only plan that makes sense for Crawford right now.

I know, I know. Allow me to boo myself for you.

Boooooooooooooo.

I’m not saying this is the plan that I would have chosen if the buck stopped at my desk. But it is the only one that makes sense given the roster maneuvering they did at the trade deadline.

Simply put, it would be incoherent for the Phillies to have traded for Harrison Bader or attempted to trade for someone like Steven Kwan if they believed there was a strong possibility Crawford could step into a major league lineup and do the same things he’s been doing at triple A.

On Sunday, Crawford reached base twice in a loss to the Worcester Red Sox to raise his International League-leading batting average to .326 with a healthy .835 OPS. It was his sixth straight game with a hit and the seventh time in nine games that he’d been on base at least twice.

Since May 21, Crawford has two more walks than strikeouts (32-30) and 20 stolen bases in 201 plate appearances to go with his .337 batting average and .442 on-base percentage. It’s silly to think that the Phillies are simply deciding that they would not benefit from that sort of production in the leadoff spot ahead of Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and Kyle Schwarber. It’s equally silly to think that the Phillies may yet get that level of performance out of Bader, Brandon Marsh, or Max Kepler. The only thing that makes sense is that Dave Dombrowski and his front office aren’t quite sure how Crawford’s bat will play at the major league level. Since that’s the case, they might as well get a close look at Bader.

» READ MORE: Dealin’ Dave has a new Dombrowski Doctrine. The result was a sensible deadline for the Phillies

“If we do bring him up, he needs to play a lot,” Dombrowski said Thursday, after the Phillies acquired Bader from the Twins for a couple of low-level prospects. “I’m not sure that we’re in a position to do that at this point today, but he’s not somebody that we would hesitate to bring up if we decide that was the right thing to do.”

Admittedly, the Phillies’ messaging has been a bit confusing with regard to Crawford. Manager Rob Thomson has spoken highly of Crawford throughout the season, going so far as to say in June that a promotion could “absolutely” be in store for Crawford this season. Dombrowski labeled the 21-year-old prospect major-league-ready on Thursday in the same breath that he made his comment about Crawford needing to get regular at-bats.

“It’s not like he needs — he, like [Andrew] Painter, like a lot of those youngsters, they can use more development time,“ Dombrowski said. ”That will never hurt them when they’re going to get here. They’re going to have to make some adjustments. But he’s also in a position where we think he’s ready to do that when called upon.”

If the Phillies think that Crawford is “ready,” and that they won’t hesitate to call him up, then why wouldn’t they think that actually doing so is the right thing to do?

The unique thing about Crawford is that he is pretty much the same hitter he was in his first full season in the minors. He makes a ton of contact but also hits a ton of ground balls. That has become less of an issue this year as Crawford has dramatically raised his walk rate while also lowering his strikeout rate.

Still, his ground-ball rate has been consistently above 60%, a threshold where you don’t see many MLB regulars, let alone impact regulars. In fact, there isn’t a single qualifying big league regular with a ground-ball rate at or above 60% this season. The only player above 56.3% is the Brewers’ Christian Yelich, who leads the majors at 59.3%.

Crawford has not started hitting for power — he has averaged one extra-base hit every 12 at-bats the last two seasons — so his upside is capped.

» READ MORE: The Phillies and Mets had different approaches at the trade deadline. Whose moves will be enough?

“He gets the ball deep in the zone, so he hits a lot of balls to left field,” Dombrowski said. “But he also has the speed to beat those out. So he’s an exciting type of player you watch play. He’s among the league leaders at triple A hitting-wise, and he’s been that type of player everywhere he’s played. So he’s got, with the speed that he brings, a real dynamic. He’s not going to be hitting out of the ballpark at this time of his career. He will have more power because he’s a big guy and he’s tall. He’ll put on some more weight, but that’s not his game at this time. He’s a speed type of player. That brings some excitement in that regard.”

Power is what plays in the postseason. Bader and Marsh may not be Ruth and Gehrig, but the Phillies aren’t wrong to think that they might give them more than Crawford right now. Marsh entered Sunday in the midst of another one of his mini hot streaks, having reached base in nine of his last 20 plate appearances with four extra-base hits.

Since June 4 he had a .296/.349/.430 batting line, which isn’t all that far off from Crawford’s triple-A numbers. Bader’s .767 OPS on the season comes with 25 extra-base hits in 313 plate appearances. Both he and Marsh have had some postseason success. Everyone forgets that Marsh went 13-for-38 with four doubles, four walks, and a homer in the 2023 playoffs.

There could come a time when the Phillies decide that Crawford is their least-worst option in left or center. At this point, there’s no reason to rush.