As Magic await and Celtics loom, Sixers can make a playoff statement even in defeat
Entering the NBA postseason, the real stakes are abstract in nature for the Sixers.
Maybe it’s better this way.
Nobody has to pretend.
For the first time in more than a decade, the Sixers will enter a postseason expected to lose. Maybe not right away. But shortly thereafter.
Whenever it happens — likely within the next couple of weeks, when the Celtics or Pistons make quick work of them — there will be no reason to feign disappointment. There will be no talk of legacies besmirched or failures repeated. There will be no soul-sucking discourse about Joel Embiid or Ben Simmons or James Harden to carry us into the summer.
The focus will be where it should be. On Tyrese Maxey. On V.J. Edgecombe. On the promise of a future we’ve already begun to glimpse.
» READ MORE: Everything you need to know about the Sixers in the NBA playoffs: Schedule, bracket, how to watch, tickets, more
This is bonus basketball for the Sixers. On Tuesday, they’ll host the Orlando Magic in the NBA’s Play-In Tournament with a chance to clinch their spot in a best-of-seven first-round series against the Celtics. If they lose to the Magic, they’ll get another home play-in game against the Hornets or Heat. The winner of that second play-in game will face the top-seeded Pistons in the best-of-seven first-round series.
Confused? Don’t feel bad. The NBA could figure out a way to make oatmeal complicated. The bottom line for the seventh-seeded Sixers is as follows. They have two chances to win a home play-in game and thus gain admittance to the first round of the playoffs. If they succeed, they’ll travel to Boston or Detroit next weekend for Game 1 of a best-of-seven series. If they lose to both the Magic on Tuesday and to the Hornets/Heat winner on Thursday, their season will be over.
David Murphy alerts
The real stakes are abstract in nature. With Embiid sidelined while recovering from an emergency appendectomy, the Sixers will get a chance to see how a lead duo of Maxey-Edgecombe responds to the crucible of playoff basketball. Wins and losses will be marginal factors in the litmus test. There aren’t many teams that have won a playoff series with a 20-year-old rookie as a primary scoring option. You can maybe count the 2017-18 Celtics with 19-year-old Jayson Tatum. But they’d been to the conference finals the season before.
A better comparison for the Sixers would be the Timberwolves in Anthony Edwards’ first few seasons. It wasn’t until Edwards’ fourth season as a pro that the Timberwolves won a playoff series. But they saw plenty of flashes from their young star in first-round losses to the Grizzlies and Nuggets in years two and three: 36 points in his first-ever playoff game; 31.6 points per game in his second-ever playoff series. Those are the types of performances that can make a losing effort a successful one.
What would constitute success for the Sixers?
1. Beat the Magic, obviously
A year ago, Orlando was a team on the upswing. The Magic had spent several seasons building around young frontcourt stars Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero, both high lottery picks who are still under the age of 25. After a couple of first-round playoff exits, they swung an offseason trade for 27-year-old guard Desmond Bane in a move that moved them closer to the fringe of true contender status. You know what they say about best-laid plans.
The Magic arrive in Philly on Tuesday fresh off a startling season-ending defeat to a bunch of Celtics backups. Wagner has looked like a shell of himself since returning from a serious ankle injury that sidelined him for most of December through March. He has yet to play 30 minutes in a game since returning on April 1, and he hobbled off the court late in Sunday’s loss to Boston. On paper, Orlando looks like a team that can run with anybody. On the court, they’ve looked like something much less.
The Sixers won two of three against the Magic in the regular season, but there are several caveats. The last time the two teams played was way back on Jan. 9. Embiid started for the Sixers. Wagner did not play for the Magic. The other two games both took place before Thanksgiving, including a 144-103 blowout loss when Embiid was out of the lineup.
2. Maxey shows he can thrive as a team’s top scoring option in the playoffs.
You can argue that we saw everything we needed to see from Maxey against the Knicks a couple of years ago. He scored 33 in Game 1, 35 in Game 2, and then carried the Sixers to an overtime win in Game 5, scoring 46 points in 52 minutes. But Maxey has never been the focal point of an opposing defense the way he will be this postseason. Against the Knicks, he was arguably the Sixers’ second option next to Embiid. The two years prior, he was the third option next to Embiid and Harden. Before that, he wasn’t even a regular starter.
This season, the Sixers have been most effective with Embiid and Maxey on the court together, averaging +5.9 net points per 100 possessions. The trio of Maxey, Edgecombe and Paul George were -2.2 net points when playing together (as of Sunday’s regular season finale). Maxey always seems to take the next step. This is his next opportunity. He needs to be the tide that lifts all ships.
3. Edgecombe has some Maxey moments as a scorer.
Edgecombe is already one of five rookies in the last 53 years to average 34 minutes, 16 points, and four assists with an effective field goal percentage of at least .505 (min. 65 games played). The other four: Ja Morant (2019-20), Steph Curry (2009-10), Michael Jordan (1984-85), and Magic Johnson (1979-80).
The future is incredibly bright. But the Sixers’ ceiling over the next five to 10 years will be determined by how much further Edgecombe progresses as an elite scorer. We’ve seen plenty of flashes this year, none more than his 38 points on 16-of-28 shooting in a March win over the Kings.
But Edgecombe has only topped 30 three times. And he’s never done it against a playoff defense. That’s not a knock against him. As we noted earlier, it’s incredibly rare for a rookie to do the things that he has done, and for a winning team to rely on him to the extent the Sixers have. The hope is that we’ll see a performance or two out of him similar to the ones we saw out of Maxey in the early stages of his ascendance.
4. George plays like the player the Sixers thought they were getting when they signed him to a four-year max deal two summers ago.
The 35-year-old veteran only played 21 minutes in the Sixers’ blowout win over the Bucks on Sunday. Before that, though, he averaged 22.1 points while shooting .423 from three-point range in the nine games since he returned from a 25-game suspension. Before that, though, he averaged 22.1 points while shooting .423 from three-point range in the nine games since he returned from a 25-game suspension. Even if the Sixers lose in the first round, George will have an opportunity to put together five to eight games that show he can still make a significant impact on a playoff team. Maybe that opens up some trade options this summer.
His first opportunity will come on Tuesday night, when he’ll need to carry a heavy load against Wagner and Banchero.
