Tiz the Law has the speed and resume to dominate the Kentucky Derby | Dick Jerardi

So, those with memories that go back two years will remember that I was able to get 40-1 on eventual 2018 Kentucky Derby favorite and winner Justify. When another Bob Baffert-trainee gave a Justify-like debut performance on Feb. 16, I was able to get 22-1 on Charlatan the next day.

When I texted Baffert to ask if Charlatan was Justify II, he wrote back: “Not sure, but we’re going to find out.”

Charlatan ran again on March 14 and ran exactly like Justify again. It looked like I had another Derby favorite at a nice price.

Then, businesses, schools and life basically began to shut down. The Derby was moved to September. Some tracks stayed open; others like Santa Anita Park, where Charlatan trained, were closed for a time.

Charlatan ran next on what would have been Derby Day, May 2. Only it was at Oaklawn Park in a division of the Arkansas Derby. The colt crushed the competition again, getting enough points for a September Derby.

Then, a month later, Charlatan suffered a minor injury, needed surgery, and was declared out of the Derby. He was subsequently disqualified from first in the Arkansas Derby because a post-race test revealed a trace amount of a prohibited medication, not something that likely would have helped the horse’s performance.

Regardless, my 22-1 was gone.

I loved Art Collector in the July 11 Blue Grass at Keeneland. The colt was still a bit under the Derby radar the morning of the race. I got 25-1 on him to win the Derby. He blew the field away and was 8-1 to win the Derby after the race. Then, he won the Aug. 9 Ellis Park Derby easily and was going to be the second choice in the Derby.

I had watched Tiz the Law dominate the Travers the day before, so I was under no illusions about how difficult it would be to beat the Derby favorite. But 25-1 looked good, and so did a Tiz the Law-Art Collector exacta. I really thought they had separated from the competition.

Then, it was announced Tuesday morning that Art Collector had suffered a minor injury in training on Monday. He was not even entered in the Derby.

So, 2020 just can’t be stopped.

I will chalk it up to the racing gods getting even for 40-1 in 2018 more than the insanity of the year that won’t end.

Now, I need to find a way to get my money back in Saturday’s Derby. If Tiz the Law even comes close to his Travers performance, the other 16 are running for second.

Tiz the Law may have been favored in May, but the colt is way better now than then. This four-months-later Derby has given some of these animals time to get bigger, stronger, faster. None has improved more than Tiz the Law, and he was already better than these horses.

I count 10 horses with no chance, so I am trying to sort out the other seven, with Tiz the Law as a free space on top.

I am going to try to keep Honor A.P., the likely second choice out of my exactas and trifectas. In descending order, I like Ny Traffic, Attachment Rate, Authentic, Thousand Words, and Money Moves.

King Guillermo would have bee nncluded but was scratched Thursday with a fever.

Each of those exactas should pay decently. Some will pay very nicely.

Ny Traffic is dangerous because every race is better than the last one. Attachment Rate has the right closing style to pass tiring horses in the stretch. Authentic may be the lone speed, and his recent workouts have been great. The other two and Honor A.P. all have the talent to run behind Tiz the Law. It will all come down to price for me, in-race scenario for the horses.

Tiz the Law is the first horse to win the Champagne Stakes, Florida Derby, Belmont Stakes, and Travers. It is an incredible resume, especially when you consider the rest of this field has won a combined three Grade I stakes, one fewer than Tiz the Law.

The colt also has the tactical speed to stay out of trouble. The 17 post in the new 20-horse starting gate is perfect. (Tiz the Law will actually start from stall 18 as stalls 1 and 20 will be left vacant). If you watch all of Tiz the Law’s races, the horse is clearly more comfortable being outside than inside, so it is all setting up perfectly for the best horse to win again and head for Pimlico in four weeks, a Triple Crown on the line in the Preakness.

Note: If you want to bet the Derby at Parx but don’t want to go inside, there will be a wagering trailer in front of the building.