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How to bet Thursday’s NCAA Tournament games

Forget the seeds and the win-loss records. Look how each team has done against the spread. Here's a look at all 16 games on Thursday.

Defending national champion Baylor drew Norfolk State in its NCAA opener.
Defending national champion Baylor drew Norfolk State in its NCAA opener.Read moreEric Gay / AP

A rundown of Thursday’s games with a few picks sprinkled in just to make the St. Patrick’s Day Jameson (hack, wheeze, cough) go down a little smoother.

12:15 p.m./CBS - Michigan (-1.5) vs. Colorado State (137.5)

Last year, Michigan was a 1 seed and Colorado State was one of the First Four out. This year, CSU earned the highest seed in school history (6) and Michigan had to spend Selection Sunday on the bubble. Early wagering action favored the Wolves, while Colorado State said the NCAA was late getting them a flight to Indianapolis. Against the spread records: Michigan 13-18. Colorado State 14-15.

» READ MORE: The Inquirer's Bracket Jawn: Time to make your picks.

12:40 p.m./truTV - Providence (-2) vs. South Dakota State (149.5)

SDSU has won 21 in a row and led the nation in three-point shooting at 44.9% as a team. They played three games against power-5 teams, scoring 88 against Alabama, 76 versus Washington and 77 against Washington State. Still, their team total of 74.5 points at DK seems high. ATS records: Providence 17-13, South Dakota State 17-14-1.

1:45 p.m./TNT - Memphis (-25) vs. Boise State (133.5)

Played one another in the NIT quarters last year (Memphis won, 59-56). “Holy cow, are they athletic,” Boise State coach Leon Rose said. “They were a really, really good team when we played them, and they’re better now.” Memphis center Jalen Duren, who spent his first two high school years at Roman Catholic, is projected to be a lottery pick in June. ATS records: Memphis 15-15-1, Boise State 18-15. Pick: Under Boise State team total of 65.5 (-105 at DraftKings).

» READ MORE: Jalen Duren is coming into his own at Memphis | Mike Jensen

2 p.m./TBS - Baylor (-21.5) vs. Norfolk State (137.5)

Baylor’s dealing with a couple injuries which makes taking Norfolk State and three touchdowns interesting. Ultimately, we’ll pass and maybe fade Baylor on Saturday against either North Carolina or Marquette. ATS records: Baylor 16-14-2, Norfolk State 17-9-1

2:45 p.m./CBS - Tennessee (-17.5) vs. Longwood (132)

Tennessee has won 12 of 13, going 8-5 against the spread in that span against some of the SEC’s best. ATS records: Tennessee 20-13, Longwood 19-9.

3:10 p.m./truTV - Iowa (-10.5) vs. Richmond (150)

The 10.5-point spread is the highest among the games involving the Nos. 5-12 seeds. Next is Houston laying 8.5 to UAB. ATS records: Iowa 22-13, Richmond 17-18.

» READ MORE: Fran McCaffery, returning to the NCAA Tournament with Iowa, was nicknamed ‘White Magic’ in his Sonny Hill League days

4:15 p.m./TNT - Gonzaga (-23.5) vs. Georgia State (149.5)

Gonzaga is a No. 1 seed for the third consecutive tournament. The margins of victory over their previous No. 16 seeds was 38 (Fairleigh Dickinson, 2019) and 43 (Norfolk St, 2021). ATS records: Gonzaga 14-12-3, Georgia State 12-12-1. Pick: Gonzaga laying the points.

4:30 p.m./TBS - North Carolina (-3.5) vs. Marquette (152)

UNC had covered four in a row before running into Cinderella Virginia Tech in the ACC semis. Three-point spread feels light here. Marquette is 4-6 in its last 10. ATS records: North Carolina 16-16-1, Marquette 16-15. Pick: North Carolina to cover.

6:50 p.m./TNT - Connecticut (-6.5) vs. New Mexico State (132)

Everybody loves a 12-5 upset, but asking New Mexico State to beat UConn in Buffalo – 2,000 miles from its Las Cruces’ campus – is too much. ATS records: Connecticut 13-18-1, New Mexico State 17-12

» READ MORE: Jameer Nelson Jr. has made a name for himself at Delaware | Mike Jensen

7:10 p.m./CBS - Kentucky (-18) vs. St. Peter’s (131.5)

St. Peter’s has won AND covered seven in a row, but they probably need the other 11 Apostles if they want to pull off a win here. St. Pete’s had the best defense in the MAAC and forward KC Ndefo (6-7, 195) is the league’s three-time defensive player of the year. Don’t play the over of 131.5. ATS records: Kentucky 14-18-1, Saint Peter’s 19-9-1.

7:20 p.m./TBS - St. Mary’s (-3) vs. Indiana (126.5)

St. Mary’s usually comes up light in the NCAA Tournament, but this could be different. They spanked Gonzaga in the regular-season finale (at home) and have been waiting in Portland while Indiana beat Wyoming in Tuesday night’s play-in round in Dayton. ATS records: St. Mary’s 19-10-2, Indiana 20-14

» READ MORE: Villanova’s Brandon Slater opened all sorts of eyes at the Big East Tournament | Mike Jensen

7:27 p.m./truTV - San Diego State (-2.5) vs. Creighton (120)

Lowest over/under on the first-round board. Creighton lost its conference championship game 54-48. San Diego State lost its 53-52. The under was 21-11 in Creighton’s game (65.6%), 19-12 for SDSU (61.3%). Get the hint yet? ATS records: San Diego State 17-14, Creighton 19-14.

9:20 p.m./TNT - Arkansas (-5) vs. Vermont (139)

Did you know Vermont’s official abbreviation is UVM, which is Latin for Universitas Virdis Montis (University of the Green Mountains). So if Google translate is to be believed: Accipe Vermont pecuniam versus (take Vermont on the money line, +180). ATS records: Arkansas 20-11-1, Vermont 19-13. Pick: Vermont outright.

» READ MORE: Sweet 16 things to look at in this NCAA field | Mike Jensen

9:40 p.m./CBS - Murray State (-1.5) vs. San Francisco (136.5)

Enough respected money came in early to flip the line as Murray State opened as 1-point underdogs. The total, which opened at 139.5, also has seen some movement. ATS records: Murray State 16-18-1, San Francisco 13-18-1.

9:50 p.m./TBS - UCLA (-14) vs. Akron (128.5)

Akron can score a little (71.2 per game), and a two-touchdown spread feels heavy, even if UCLA is playing its best ball of the season. Worth noting that Akron’s individual team prop is 57.5. ATS records: UCLA 17-14-1, Akron 17-14. Pick: Akron to cover.

9:57 p.m./truTV - Kansas (-22) vs. Texas Southern (146)

Texas Southern pulled off a stunner by winning at then-No. 20 Florida in December as 24-point underdogs. OK, so maybe Florida wasn’t THAT good. ATS records: Kansas 17-16-1, Texas Southern 17-13-1.

Lines via DraftKings/Records against the spread via VegasInsider.