Penn State was one win away from playing for a national title last year. How did it fall apart so fast?

Penn State athletic director Pat Kraft kept going back to one phrase throughout his 20-minute news conference Monday following the firing of James Franklin: “Where the program was going.”

It was clear that Penn State’s trajectory under Franklin wasn’t up to the standard Kraft and other decision-makers wanted for the football program. And Kraft reiterated that he’s at Penn State “to win a national championship.”

For the situation in Happy Valley to get to this point, it quickly was clear that this was not a decision solely based on the results this season. It was an accumulation of disappointments for a program that accelerated its growth during Franklin’s tenure.

Throughout the offseason and even early in preseason, Franklin harped on how Penn State was “a few plays away” from playing in the national championship game last year, and that this staff was the “best combined personnel that I think we’ve had at Penn State.” A team that returned its starting quarterback, both running backs, most of its offensive line, and several key defensive starters was picked as the No. 2 team in the Associated Press’ preseason rankings.

» READ MORE: Marcus Hayes: James Franklin’s arrogance always outstripped his accomplishments. That’s why Penn State fired him.

But now, at 3-3, with Franklin fired and Drew Allar out for the season, those national championship aspirations are gone, along with the program’s stability. But in those three losses — particularly the last two to UCLA and Northwestern — Terry Smith, now the interim coach, noticed a shift in the team’s effort, as he mentioned several times Monday.

“When you watch us play, you guys will come in here, and your questions won’t be [about] effort,” Smith said. “Your questions won’t be, ‘They look lethargic.’ If we lose, it’s going to be because that team beat us and they were just better. We won’t answer questions about how we lost the last three games. We’ve got to get our grittiness back, our toughness, our swag, and, most importantly, we got to go have fun, enjoy playing the game of football.”

Looking back at Franklin’s tenure, there was a clear trend that held the program back from reaching its goal.

It is easy to point to Franklin’s 4-21 record against AP top-10 opponents as a reason for his firing. But there were several inflection points that predated Kraft taking the athletic director’s job in 2022.

The momentum after the 2016 Big Ten title was halted in 2017 and 2018 by multiple blown leads against Ohio State. Following both of those games came letdown losses to Michigan State.

In 2019, losses to Minnesota and Ohio State in a three-week stretch again foiled a promising season. After down 2020 and 2021 seasons, Franklin had the program back on the upswing, but the 2022 and 2023 seasons included annual losses to Michigan and Ohio State that led to the firing of offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich.

Last year was a breakthrough with the CFP appearance, and because Ohio State had two losses, Penn State faced Oregon in the Big Ten title game.

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New offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki helped the offense produce more big plays, and Allar took a major leap forward, but Penn State got off to a fast start in losses to Notre Dame and Ohio State before failing to capitalize in big moments.

Franklin has long called for more resources at Penn State, upgraded facilities, and overall alignment in vision between administration and his staff. That seemed to happen this year when he hired Jim Knowles, the former Ohio State defensive coordinator, retained Kotelnicki as the play caller, and had player familiarity on both sides of the ball.

But in the end, it was the one issue that has plagued Penn State throughout his tenure: one big-game loss snowballing into more.

“Our next coach needs to be able to maximize elite-level resources, attack the transfer portal, and develop at the highest level. This person has to fit Penn State,” Kraft said. “They need to represent the toughness, the blue-collar work ethic, and the class that defines this institution. We want someone who honors our tradition but isn’t afraid to evolve, someone who understands the weight of ‘We Are,’ and leads us forward with a vision of championships.”

Smith has been with Franklin since being brought on staff in 2014. As much credit Franklin receives for his recruiting efforts, Smith should receive just as much for his role as Penn State’s recruiting coordinator.

» READ MORE: ‘Now is the right time for change.’ Penn State AD says a new coach can bring a national title.

He’s been key in building relationships with recruits to keep in-state talent home and building pipelines in Maryland, New Jersey, and surrounding areas. Franklin met with the team Sunday to announce the news of his firing, a meeting filled with emotional moments, Smith said. And he thinks of his time with Franklin fondly.

“I just wanted to express my gratitude and thankfulness for him and all that he’s done for me, my family, and this program,” said Smith, who spoke to Franklin on Sunday night. “He took us out of a dark era and got us to be a relevant program again, and we don’t take that for granted.”

In 2014, Smith helped Franklin pick up the pieces of the program looking to compete at the highest level. Franklin did that and more by Year 4.

The Langhorne native’s time at Penn State will be remembered for memorable runs (2016 and 2024) along with the program’s shortcomings. And for Kraft, that meant making the “hard decision” to part with the coach who is tied with Rip Engle for second in wins at Penn State, behind Joe Paterno.

» READ MORE: Penn State coaching candidates: Four options to replace James Franklin, from Matt Rhule to Fran Brown

What comes next for Kraft and the Penn State decision-makers is fulfilling the promise of winning a national championship. But no matter who comes next, the new coaching staff will be measured by the standard Franklin set. Ten wins and a New Year’s Six bowl game will no longer be the ceiling. It will be the floor.

“This is not just a three-game thing,” Kraft said. “When you start to look at where we’re going, and, yes, how this year had been playing out, all those things you have to take in consideration. … How do I give my student-athletes the best chance to win? How do I build, continue to build this and to a place that we are the best program in the country? That’s the motivation.

“I’m not shy to admit it, I’m here to win a national championship. I believe our fans deserve that, and I wake up every day trying to achieve that goal.”