Will Villanova end its NCAA Tournament drought? Here’s what the numbers — and Joe Lunardi — say.

Sunday is the first day of February, which means March is right around the corner, which means it is officially no longer too early to think about the NCAA Tournament.

Villanova is 20 games through its 31-game schedule, and nine games through its 20-game Big East slate. The Wildcats, who host Providence on campus Friday night, are 15-5 overall and 6-3 in their conference matchups in the first season of the Kevin Willard era.

School administration moved on from Kyle Neptune after a third consecutive season ended without an invitation to the NCAA Tournament. Villanova officials believe the school should field a basketball team that perennially is in the at-large bid conversation, and three consecutive seasons without meaningful basketball was not acceptable.

Right now, it’s hard to believe the drought could stretch to four.

The Wildcats aren’t yet a lock, but it’s looking pretty safe for their fans to preemptively look into taking a PTO day or two for the third week of March.

What are the numbers saying? We went to ESPN’s bracket guru himself, Joe Lunardi, for some help.

Saturday’s loss to No. 2 UConn in Hartford was an “insurance policy” kind of game, Lunardi said. Villanova declined coverage. The Wildcats let an upset opportunity slip away in an overtime loss, but the result, Lunardi said, was a “wash.” Villanova was a double-digit underdog and lost by eight.

“It didn’t hurt and it didn’t help,” said Lunardi, who had the Wildcats as a No. 7 seed in his latest bracket projection released Tuesday morning.

The metrics support that notion. Villanova barely budged in the NCAA’s NET rankings, where it was ranked 34th as of Tuesday afternoon, and at KenPom (27).

What has to happen to stay on the right path?

“All they really need to do is win games they’re favored and they can even afford to lose [a few] of those,” Lunardi said. “If they go 6-5 they’re going to make it.”

That’s some leeway.

“That’s a very long leash given the fact that, frankly, the league is good but not great,” Lunardi said.

As things stand right now, Villanova is likely to be favored in at least eight of its final 11 contests. Take care of six or seven of those, and there’s no need for a marquee win over UConn or St. John’s.

While 6-5 the rest of the way probably would be a disappointment, Lunardi projects that a final record of 21-10 gets Villanova “at worst” a No. 10 seed. The Wildcats’ ceiling, meanwhile, is “probably a five,” Lunardi said.

So, don’t count on the NCAA rewarding the Wildcats with a “home” game at Xfinity Mobile Arena to start the tournament.

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Asked to put the résumé in perspective, Lunardi said: “I would describe it as a résumé of a regular good Jay Wright team, meaning a mid-single-digit seed, not a Final Four team. Everything has to go right to make the second weekend.”

That’s probably a result any rational person in Nova Nation would have signed up for nine months ago.

It also seems to be pretty accurate. Villanova is 15-5 because it mostly has taken care of business against teams it is supposed to beat. The nonconference schedule started with a loss to nationally ranked BYU, but then came seven consecutive games against teams well outside the KenPom top 100, including three dominant Big 5 wins.

The Wildcats were then blown out by Michigan before traveling to Wisconsin to beat the Badgers in overtime, a win that was followed up with a road victory over Seton Hall to kick off conference play. At the time, those were pretty good wins. Only the Wisconsin game has aged well.

As of Tuesday morning, Seton Hall was Lunardi’s first team outside the field of 68 after a four-game losing streak.

It is a Villanova résumé without a signature win, and it might not need one. Why?

“They don’t have the dreaded bad loss,” Lunardi said.

Last year’s résumé had losses to Columbia, St. Joseph’s, and a down Virginia team. The year before featured losses to St. Joe’s, Penn, and Drexel. This year’s biggest blip as of now is against a Creighton team that is still on the NCAA Tournament bubble.

Lunardi says his projections are usually pretty conservative and include some emphasis on past similar résumés. Right now, Villanova has more than an 80% chance of making the NCAA Tournament, according to Lunardi’s projections.

On the more extreme side, the TourneyCast projections at Bart Torvik’s analytics site have Villanova at 96.2% to make the dance. Torvik’s numbers are based on thousands of simulations playing out the rest of the season.

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“It’s too early to make anybody a lock,” Lunardi said.

But it’s getting closer to that time.

If there was anything to worry about right now for Villanova fans, it should be health. The Wildcats are a key injury or two — even minor ailments — from scrambling a bit. They don’t have a reliable backup center, for example. Their depth has taken a hit elsewhere, too.

But those worries are hypothetical. Then again, all of this is.

Villanova is the only one of the six Big 5 schools with an at-large path to the NCAA Tournament. The others would need to win their respective conference tournaments. Of the bunch, only Temple (5-2) and St. Joe’s (4-3) had winning conference records as of Tuesday.

Similar story. Villanova was projected as a No. 10 seed on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble with an at-large bid in the latest ESPN women’s bracketology. No other team has an at-large path, and only Drexel (4-3) had a winning conference record.