Jeff McLane’s keys to Eagles vs. Chargers in Week 14: What you need to know and a prediction

The Eagles travel to the Los Angeles Chargers for a Week 14 matchup at SoFi Stadium on Monday at 8:15 p.m. Here’s what you need to know about the game:

When the Eagles have the ball: It’s December and it’s unlikely the Eagles will suddenly have a high-powered offense at this late stage. At the least, they could look more like the outfit that did enough to win most of the first 11 weeks by not turning the ball over and being effective when in the red zone. But there is conceivable room for improvement and I think one way to address that is having Jalen Hurts run more. Kevin Patullo suggested as much earlier this week, and the guess here is that the offensive coordinator and coach Nick Sirianni had a “come-to-Jesus” conversation with the quarterback about having more designed runs.

» READ MORE: Jalen Hurts running more might be the best thing for the Eagles. Is it also hazardous to his career?

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, this could be the game to get Saquon Barkley and the run game back on track. Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter has used light boxes 48.2% of the time — which ranks third in the NFL — to induce good passing offenses into running more. But he may break that trend considering how effective defenses have been when concentrating their efforts on stopping Barkley. The Chargers use their base five-man front only 20% of the time, but when nose tackle Teair Tart is on the field, he eats up the “A” gaps. Patullo can keep L.A. in nickel on run downs simply by favoring three-receiver sets. This matchup screams for less of second tight end Grant Calcaterra as a run blocker, despite the Eagles’ perplexingly high use of “12” personnel.

Minter’s philosophy mirrors that of Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. He’ll sacrifice some yards on the ground if it means aiding the secondary and limiting explosive plays through the air. The Chargers lean on two-high safety shells and zone coverage 82% of the time. Minter uses dime personnel — and sometimes will have as many as seven defensive backs on the field — more than most coordinators. He favors Cover 4 when he has two safeties — typically RJ Mickens and Elijah Molden — deep. Derwin James is the linchpin in the secondary and rotates between the slot, box and post. The Eagles will see some single-high safety looks, but rarely vs. man coverage. Patullo needs to open the playbook with more crossing routes for receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Hurts can throw intermediate-length passes, he just needs to pick his spots.

The Eagles’ pass protection has been relatively sound, but pressure has been an issue in recent weeks. Minter blitzes only 19% of the time — 31st in the league. He likes to simulate blitzes with exchange pressures. The Eagles have struggled to pick those up this season. Hurts needs to find his answers ... not that they’ve always been there. Outside linebacker Tuli Tuipulotu leads the Chargers in pressures, but Kahlil Mack is healthy and the most dangerous. Both edges line up predominantly over the right tackle, which will be Fred Johnson in this case. He’s starting for a third straight game with Lane Johnson (foot) still out. Patullo has increasingly helped his tackles with chip blocks. Hurts isn’t getting sacked as much, but he’s completed only 59% of his passes in the last four games vs. 70 before the bye.

When the Chargers have the ball: Justin Herbert is expected to play despite surgery on the quarterback’s left non-throwing hand earlier in the week. If he can’t go, it’ll be backup Trey Lance, which would be a considerable dropoff. Assuming Herbert is active, he may not be able to go under center. The Chargers don’t have a heavy volume under-center offense, but they do it 29% of the time and throw play-action out of that formation 33% of the time. That’s one less variable coach and play caller Jim Harbaugh will have at his disposal. And that could help an Eagles defensive line vs. a patchwork offensive line.

» READ MORE: Chargers QB Justin Herbert breaks bone in non-throwing hand vs. Raiders; status for Eagles game uncertain

The Chargers offense is down both starting tackles. Rashawn Slater was lost for the season in training camp. Joe Alt followed him to injured reserve last month. In the three games since his injury, the offense ranks 28th in expected points added (EPA) per dropback. After some shuffling, Harbaugh has settled on Jamaree Salyer at left tackle and Trey Pipkins at right tackle. Both have previous starting experience, but are backups for good reason. With the Eagles down their best defensive lineman, Jalen Carter, the edge rushing group — led by Jaelan Phillips, Jalyx Hunt and Nolan Smith — will need to exploit their advantage.

Herbert has four solid receivers to sprinkle around his throws. Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, Oronde Gadsden and Quentin Johnston all have more than 500 yards receiving. Eagles cornerback Quinyon Mitchell is unlikely to follow one guy as a result. Adoree’ Jackson should expect a lot of attention, as should a safety corp that has underperformed. Sydney Brown may be back to the bench if Marcus Epps is ready after a stint on IR. If not, Herbert or Lance will likely find ways to attack him in coverage.

» READ MORE: Marcus Epps’ return, Jalen Carter’s injury could be factors for Vic Fangio’s defense vs. Chargers

Even without Carter, the Eagles’ interior D-line shouldn’t be overmatched. Center Bradley Bozeman can be a liability. Right guard Mekhi Becton has regressed playing on a weaker line than he did in Philly. He was benched in Week 11, but is expected to start. Harbaugh will want to establish the run, but especially after the Eagles got chewed up on the ground by the Bears. Running back Omarion Hampton could be active after having his 21-day practice window opened last week. The first round rookie averaged 4.8 yards a carry in five games before suffering a fracture to his ankle. A remarkable 4.1 of those yards came after contact. Hampton is tough to bring down, as is Kimani Vidal, who averages 3.4 yards after contact. The Chargers use a fair amount of two-back personnel. The Eagles, who missed eight run tackle attempts vs. the Bears, will need to be more sure-handed on Monday night.

Extra point: I’m not 100% convinced Herbert is active. Neither are the Eagles. They prepared for both Chargers quarterbacks. Herbert is the one to worry about, obviously. He’s done a remarkable job considering the O-line woes. He can make almost any throw and can fit it into tight windows. Herbert also been excellent out of structure, which has happened a fair amount due to poor pass pro. But he’s forced some passes, which has resulted in interceptions. And now he has the issue with his off hand.

I’ve been terrible at picking Eagles games, per usual. Come for the analysis above — I hope — and leave by the time you get to the prediction. I’m sure fans hate whenever I pick the Eagles. I get the joke. But I like their chances against a limited quarterback, and definitely if Lance starts. I don’t think the offense will rise from the near-dead, but I anticipate noticeable changes off the mini-bye that will aid their chances. I also like Hurts indoors.

Prediction: Eagles, 25-19