Eagles vs. Bucs: Here are the numbers that matter in Week 4

So, here we are again. It’s Week 4 of the NFL season, and the Eagles are traveling to Tampa, Fla., for a second consecutive late-September showdown with a Buccaneers team that has had their number lately.

The Eagles will hope to avoid déjà vu and buck the recent trend. They were blown out at Raymond James Stadium last year, 33-16, and have lost four of their five against Tampa Bay in the Nick Sirianni era.

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It’s a matchup between two of the three remaining undefeated NFC teams, and while it’s early in the season, it’s a big one for potential playoff seeding if the Eagles want to avoid having to travel to Florida for more bad memories come playoff time.

How might Sunday play out? Here’s what some of the numbers tell us:

That’s how often Tampa Bay has blitzed through three games this season, according to Next Gen Stats, the seventh-highest rate in the NFL.

The Eagles should expect to see a higher rate on Sunday. Todd Bowles loves to send pressure at Jalen Hurts. The Bucs blitzed the Eagles 15 times last season and generated a 48.6% pressure rate while sacking Hurts four times via blitz packages and six times overall. The Eagles were down Lane Johnson in that game, and his status for Sunday remains unclear after he exited the Eagles’ Week 3 win with a stinger.

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Johnson said postgame that he was hoping to be ready for Sunday, and his presence will be key, as it always is.

The Bucs have generated 58 pressures through three games, ranking second in the NFL behind the Denver Broncos, who play the Eagles in Week 5.

The Eagles have been susceptible to pressure, allowing a 43.2% pressure rate, third-highest in the league.

While we’re talking Bucs blitzes, we might as well point out that the Eagles are sending pressure at a much higher clip than normal for Vic Fangio. Blitzing is up around the league, and the Eagles are part of the trend, sending extra rushers on 27.1% of their defensive plays, 14th in the NFL.

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The Bucs and quarterback Baker Mayfield have been pretty good at avoiding sacks (5.7%, 18th in the NFL), and Mayfield has been effective when forced into scrambling situations. But the Eagles would be wise to keep up their blitz rate, especially if injured tackle Tristan Wirfs returns. Who wants to deal with extra pressure and chaos in his first game back from knee surgery?

The Eagles haven’t been getting home enough, though. Only the Titans and Panthers have fewer than the Eagles’ three sacks. But it’s not for a lack of trying.

The Eagles finally let loose in the second half Sunday, and Hurts completed 7 of 9 passes that traveled at least 10 air yards for 154 yards and two scores. Before that, Hurts had just seven such attempts through 10 quarters.

But the Eagles might not need to air it out to get yardage in the passing game Sunday. The Bucs have allowed 420 yards after the catch, ranking third in the NFL, and their plus-69 yards after catch over expected, according to Next Gen Stats, is the fourth-highest total in the league.

Bucs linebacker Lavonte David is tied for the NFL lead with eight missed tackles so far in 2025, according to Pro Football Focus. His running mate, SirVocea Dennis, is tied for 25th with four missed tackles. Cornerbacks Jamel Dean and Jacob Parrish have two missed tackles apiece, as does safety Tykee Smith.

A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are dangerous with the ball in their hands, no matter how far down the field they catch it. Same with Saquon Barkley. The short throws might work just fine on Sunday, especially if and when Hurts needs to get it out fast while fending off extra rushers.

Only four teams have played an easier schedule than the Bucs so far. Pro Football Focus ranks their strength of schedule 28th through three games. The Eagles, meanwhile, have the fourth-toughest.

The Bucs haven’t been blowing out their poor competition either. They came from behind in all three of their victories. Mayfield is the fourth quarterback since at least 2000 to start a season with three consecutive game-winning drives, joining Nick Foles (2014), Matt Ryan (2015), and Ryan Tannehill (2020).

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Fangio was complimentary of Mayfield on Tuesday, saying: “I think he’s a good quarterback. Why these teams that had him didn’t keep him, I don’t know. But GMs make mistakes, just like coaches do. I’ve always liked Mayfield.”

The Eagles offer Mayfield his biggest test so far in 2025.

It’s a little early in the week to know for certain, but the early weather forecast for Sunday, according to the Weather Channel, is a high of 88 and humidity around 70% that will make it feel a lot hotter on the field. The Eagles will hope the possibility of afternoon showers and thunderstorms comes to fruition to cool things off.

They are flying to Tampa earlier than normal to try to prepare for the heat. They’re leaving Friday night instead of Saturday and will have their walk-through on Saturday in Tampa.