Eagles beat writers make their predictions for the game against the Washington Commanders
The Eagles look to go 4-0 to start the season. Will it be smooth sailing for them against the Commanders?
The Eagles host the Washington Commanders on Sunday. Here are the game predictions from the Eagles beat writers for Week 4.
Olivia Reiner
In their blowout, 37-3 loss last week to the Buffalo Bills, the Commanders conceded 168 rushing yards on 33 carries. The week before, the Commanders allowed 122 rushing yards on 23 carries in their 35-33 win against the Denver Broncos.
That noise you’re hearing is running back D’Andre Swift’s and quarterback Jalen Hurts’ music.
While the Eagles’ passing game is a work in progress that showed signs of life on Monday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, their run game has proven to be a boon through three weeks. The Eagles rank second in the league in rushing yards (557, 308 of which have been contributed by Swift) and have picked up a league-high 37 first downs on runs.
Credit to the Eagles’ offensive line, too, for paving the way for their runners. Among offensive linemen who have taken at least 50 run-block snaps this season, the Eagles have three starters whom Pro Football Focus graded in the top 20 — left tackle Jordan Mailata (88.0, No. 1), right tackle Lane Johnson (78.6, No. 11), and left guard Landon Dickerson (73.9, No. 18).
» READ MORE: D’Andre Swift and Olamide Zaccheaus are old St. Joe’s Prep teammates jump-starting the Eagles offense
Through three weeks, the Commanders rank No. 22 in the league in rushing yards allowed (386) and No. 27 in yards per attempt (4.8). The Eagles ought to look to exploit that matchup.
On the other side of the ball, the Commanders are having a hard time keeping quarterback Sam Howell’s jersey clean. Howell has been sacked a league-high 19 times in three games, absorbing six more sacks than the next two quarterbacks on the list, the Tennessee Titans’ Ryan Tannehill and Chicago Bears’ Justin Fields. He was sacked nine times against Buffalo alone.
According to PFF, Howell has been sacked on 39.6% of his pressures, which is the most among quarterbacks who have dropped back to pass at least 28 times. The going won’t get any easier for the Commanders against the Eagles. Defensive tackle Jalen Carter and defensive end Josh Sweat have been giving quarterbacks fits this season, racking up 15 and 12 pressures, respectively, in three games. Each player, in addition to defensive tackle Jordan Davis, has a sack and a half.
Last year, the Eagles suffered one of their three regular-season losses against the Commanders to bring their eight-game winning streak to an end. If the Eagles can win the turnover battle and force the Commanders off the field on third down, two areas they struggled with in last year’s loss, they should come out on top to go 4-0.
Prediction: Eagles 28, Commanders 17
Josh Tolentino
Could Sunday be Haason Reddick’s breakout party? The NFL’s 2022 sack leader (19½ has yet to notch sack No. 1 through three games, but Reddick has finally ditched the cast he sported over his surgically repaired thumb. The Eagles have generated a majority of their pressure from the interior thus far, but this matchup could bode well for their edge rushers.
Howell has been sacked an NFL-high 19 times (6.3 per game) with a total loss of 124 yards. At this current rate, Howell is on pace to be sacked 108 times. For reference, the NFL high is 76 sacks, set by David Carr in 2002. Finally, during last season’s first meeting involving these two teams, the Eagles sacked Carson Wentz a whopping nine times.
Offensively, the Eagles would like the passing game to reach another level. Tight end Dallas Goedert has just 63 receiving yards across 11 catches and Jalen Hurts has thrown only three touchdown passes (two to DeVonta Smith and one to Olamide Zaccheaus). The Eagles have relied heavily on their run game, which ranks second in the NFL behind Swift’s 308 rushing yards and 6.8 average.
There are warranted concerns about Washington’s interior defensive line — and divisional matchups always tend to be tighter than expected — but right guard Cam Jurgens, along with left guard Landon Dickerson, and center Jason Kelce, did a fine collective job in limiting Vita Vea less than one week ago. As long as the Eagles continue to control the line of scrimmage, it should be smooth sailing to 4-0.
Prediction: Eagles 33, Commanders 17
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Jeff McLane
The Commanders splashed down into reality last week after opening the season 2-0. They got smoked by the Bills, 37-3, as the second-year quarterback Howell tossed four interceptions and was sacked nine times. Buffalo’s defense certainly deserved credit for the pressure, and responsibility for the negative plays can be sprinkled around the offense, but Washington’s offensive line has not helped Howell. The Eagles terrorized Wentz in their first meeting with the Commanders last season, and there’s little reason to believe they can’t do the same to Howell.
That is, unless Ron Rivera’s coaches can come up with another game plan that neutralizes the Eagles’ explosive offense. Washington went with a ball control attack and had enough success on the run to stretch that game. The Eagles’ run defense wasn’t as stout as it has been this season, so a repeat of that game plan might not make sense. Their secondary is a little banged up, not especially quick, and the Commanders have speedy receivers in Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson who could make coverage difficult for Darius Slay and company. James Bradberry did fine in his first game ever in the slot, but Josh Jobe struggled on the outside as his replacement.
But the ball is likely going to have to come out quickly from Howell’s hand. Defensive coordinator Sean Desai will do his best to take away the first reads, and if he can, it should be enough time for the Eagles’ pass rush to get home. Reddick has yet to notch a sack this season, but like in Week 3 last year, Washington could provide the perfect opportunity for him to break out. He should have a decided advantage over right tackle Andrew Wylie.
On the other side of the ball, the Eagles have decimated opponents on the ground. Swift is coming off back-to-back 100-yard-plus rushing performances behind an offensive line that has been opening tractor trailer-wide running lanes. The Commanders’ strength lies with their front four, particularly tackles Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen. Edge Montez Sweat is no joke, either. But as long as the Eagles hold up in pass protection, I can see Hurts having opportunities through the air. This could be a Goedert game or the first real look at Swift as a dangerous receiver. The Eagles should have the edge vs. Washington’s linebackers and safeties in open space.
The Commanders certainly have enough to pull off an upset. It’s not like Nick Sirianni’s squad has been world beaters. But there have been enough glimpses of greatness and the talent is always there to suggest a possible cakewalk. I don’t think it’ll be quite that easy, but I can see the Eagles pulling away in the fourth quarter.
Prediction: Eagles 33, Commanders 19
EJ Smith
The Commanders came crashing back down to earth after overachieving against lesser teams in the opening two weeks, but the true mettle of this team likely lies somewhere between the 2-0 start and the drubbing at the hands of the Buffalo Bills.
Washington has managed to remain relatively mediocre despite having a loaded defensive front mostly because of a lackluster group behind the dangerous quartet of pass rushers and instability at quarterback. Washington’s strength up front has mostly been a moot point against the Eagles’ offensive line the last few seasons, but it’s always important to remember this is one of the most talented pass-rush groups in the NFL. Payne and Allen are each a handful inside, Sweat is a proven disruptor off the edge, and Chase Young has the physical tools to be a game-wrecker even if we haven’t quite seen it in the NFL yet.
If the Eagles’ offensive line neutralizes that talent like it did against the Buccaneers, who also boast a strong defensive front, the Eagles’ receiving corps should be able to win matchups against the back end. Young cornerback duo Emmanuel Forbes and Benjamin St-Juste had their hands full with Stefan Diggs last week, surrendering eight catches for 111 yards. A.J. Brown or Smith could be in for a similarly productive afternoon. Washington’s defense ranks 15th in efficiency against the run this season, so even though the group’s counting stats aren’t bad, the advanced numbers suggest the Eagles will be able to sustain drives on the ground as well.
Defensively, pressuring Howell will be imperative with the weapons Washington has at receiver, especially with injuries making the picture at safety murky for the Eagles. McLaurin was a handful for Slay in each of these teams’ meetings last year and could have a big day if the rush isn’t getting home. ESPN ranks Washington’s offensive line 26th in pass-rush win rate, which measures how often an O-line avoids giving up quick pressure on passing plays, so there should be plenty of opportunities for the group to get home.
Washington could muck this game up like they did last year by playing ball control and getting consistent pressure on Hurts, but the Eagles are better prepared for that style of play than they were this time last year. I think this will be the type of dominant, almost boring outing the Eagles got so accustomed to cruising through last season.
Prediction: Eagles 28, Commanders 13
The Eagles host the Washington Commanders on Sunday. Join Eagles beat reporters Olivia Reiner and EJ Smith as they dissect the hottest story lines surrounding the team on Gameday Central, live from Lincoln Financial Field.