Eagles-Browns takeaways: Analyzing Jalen Hurts’ passing chart and the offense reverting back to the mean

It wasn’t always pretty, but the Eagles eked out a win against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, moving to 3-2 and preserving Nick Sirianni’s unbeaten record after a bye week.

It wasn’t necessarily a convincing performance against a reeling Browns team. Do the result outweigh the context that surrounds it?

Here’s what we learned from the game:

Watching the tape of Jalen Hurts’ 26 dropbacks against the Browns, a line I wrote about last year’s offense after the team’s loss to the San Francisco 49ers in December came to mind.

That reliance — sometimes fairly characterized as over-reliance — on the star power of the Eagles’ skill players has persisted this season. Several metrics, along with Hurts’ passing chart against the Browns, reveal the scheme hasn’t evolved as much as the quarterback’s “95 percent new” comments over the summer may have suggested.

Kellen Moore has implemented new formations and more pre-snap motion at times, but the end product remains the same. The offense’s production leaned heavily on low-percentage looks to the Eagles’ best players on Sunday. Even though Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith delivered in the key moments, the dry spells the group endured for stretches of the game are symptomatic of the approach.

Of Hurts’ 25 pass attempts, just one targeted the deep or intermediate middle of the field. None of his attempts was between the hash marks, either, with the lone middle-field shot coming on a pass to Grant Calcaterra as the tight end worked up the seam against a single-high defensive shell.

It’s only fair to point out that Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz employs a heavy dose of pressure looks with single-high coverage shells that intend to close down the middle of the field. Still, the Eagles’ answer was to consistently take deep shots along the sideline to Brown and Smith for the early portion of the game without success. Three of Hurts’ five incompletions to start the game were jump balls to Smith and Brown, with Cleveland showing pressure looks pre-snap to speed up the quarterback’s process.

The Eagles did hit on a few of those plays later — Brown sealed the game on a similar look with a 40-yard catch just after the two-minute warning — but the frequency with which the offense turns to Brown’s jump-ball ability helps underscore Hurts’ consistently low expected completion percentage even with Moore running the offense now. According to Next Gen Stats, which determines a passer’s probability of completing each pass based on player-tracking data, Hurts had the third-lowest expected completion percentage of any quarterback in Week 6 going into Monday night’s game.

Aside from 2022, Hurts’ expected completion percentage has been consistently low the last few years and partly for good reason. He throws to two of the best receivers in the NFL, two guys who make 50-50 balls feel more like 70-30. Still, the numbers back up the lack of high-percentage throws Hurts has in the framework of the offense, which is something apparent on tape as well.

The Eagles offense also continued the trend of using less pre-snap motion. On Hurts’ 26 dropbacks (discounting quarterback draws), the Eagles employed pre-snap motion 11 times. That’s the offense’s lowest motion rate on Hurts’ dropbacks this season, a number that seemingly drops each week. Moore used motion on 52% of Hurts’ dropbacks in the season opener and 53% the following week compared to just 41% on Sunday.

The drop in pre-snap motion might not be seen as a big deal, but it’s worth noting some of the Eagles’ most productive plays stemmed from it. Brown’s 22-yard touchdown catch was set up by a quick motion from Calcaterra, tipping off that Cleveland was in man coverage and isolating Brown with the team’s slot cornerback. Calcaterra’s 34-yard catch-and-run was also set up by Jack Stoll motioning before the snap and drawing a deep defender to clear space for his fellow tight end.

In order to find sufficient balance on offense to lighten the load for Brown and Smith, the Eagles need more of those looks and fewer instances when Hurts is asked to “chuck and duck” toward his top two targets.

Cooper DeJean’s unofficial debut as the Eagles’ starting nickel cornerback couldn’t have gone much better. The second-round rookie filled in for Avonte Maddox coming out of the bye week and rewarded defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s trust in short order.

According to Pro Football Focus, DeJean was targeted four times on Sunday and gave up just two catches for 13 yards on those plays. The Browns tested DeJean relatively early, isolating him against receiver Jerry Jeudy on a slot fade that the former Iowa standout was well prepared for. He ran stride-for-stride with the former first-round pick to affect the throw in the corner of the end zone.

Perhaps just as important, DeJean was also capable going forward and trustworthy as a tackler. Fangio sent him on blitzes a handful of times, resulting in him logging two pressures and a half-sack to go along with three total tackles. PFF charged him with just one missed tackle as well.

With DeJean’s fellow rookie cornerback Quinyon Mitchell allowing just one catch on four targets, the Eagles got their first true glimpse of the future of their secondary on Sunday. It was an encouraging one.

As mentioned earlier, Schwartz has a tendency to load the box and trust his secondary to hold up without much deep safety help. Still, a stat that jumps off the page when reviewing the game is how many of Saquon Barkley’s rushing attempts came with eight or more defenders crowding the line of scrimmage. In fact, in each of the Eagles’ last two games, Barkley has run against stacked boxes more than 40% of the time. By comparison, he ran against loaded boxes on just 11% of his carries in the team’s season opener against the Packers.

That likely comes down, more than anything, to Todd Bowles and Schwartz authoring aggressive defensive schemes, but it’s worth monitoring. If teams continue to key on stopping Barkley, Hurts & Co. will get the type of single-high coverage looks they feasted on a couple of years ago.

To that point, Smith mentioned Sunday how teams have shifted the way they play the Eagles offense and how it requires a more patient approach. Barkley may be changing that.

“Two years ago we were a very explosive team,” Smith said. “A team that took a lot of shots down the field and made a lot of explosive plays. I think that’s the humbling thing about it. We know teams are not going to give us those looks to go out there and just chunk the ball down the field; we have to be patient. And I think that’s good for us, it teaches us patience, and I think we’re getting very good at it.”

Up, Bryce Huff: Credit where it’s due, NFL Network analyst Brian Baldinger pointed out how effective Huff was operating out of a four-point stance for the New York Jets, something the Eagles must have keyed in on during the bye week as well. Huff said the coaching staff is trying to get him to play faster and he did just that against the Browns, logging two pressures and splitting a sack with DeJean. Perhaps he’s turning the corner in the Eagles’ defensive system? Proving it against a more functional offensive front will be the determining factor.

Down, special teams: A massive part of what made Sunday’s game so “ugly” was the end-of-half sequence that ended with former Eagles safety Rodney McLeod returning a blocked field goal for a touchdown for the Browns. It was Cleveland’s only touchdown of the day and the third time in as many weeks the special-teams units have cost the Eagles in a major way. The team isn’t playing well enough to cover up miscues from the third phase right now.

“Next man” up ... Fred Johnson?: Jordan Mailata left Sunday’s game early with a hamstring injury and was on the field afterward with crutches, seemingly unable to put much weight on his left leg. Sirianni said that Mailata will be out “a couple weeks.” The Eagles have some choices to replace him, but Fred Johnson is probably the most seamless option. Otherwise, they could move Mekhi Becton to left tackle and slot Tyler Steen in at right guard.