The Eagles wouldn’t be foolish to rest their starters in Week 18. But they’d better be right.
Nick Sirianni preaches that the NFL is all about handling the opponent in front of you and then letting the other stuff sort itself out. Now, more than ever, he should listen to himself.
I really don’t know where to begin. Maybe with my Ron Burgundy voice.
I don’t believe you.
That means you, Nick Sirianni. And you, fellow media members. The big question from Sirianni’s news conference Monday isn’t a question at all. In fact, the Eagles coach is making an obvious error — albeit minor and forgivable — by playing along. There is simply no possible way he could be entertaining the idea of resting his starters in their regular-season finale against the Commanders in Week 18. Not with all the Eagles would stand to gain as the No. 2 seed, which would be theirs with a win over Washington and a Bears loss to the Lions.
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Right?
Uh … right?
“This is a marathon of a season,” Sirianni said Monday, one day after the Eagles eked out a 13-12 win over the Bills and then watched the Bears lose to the 49ers and thus fail to secure the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs. “Yes, your seeding is not locked down yet, but you are thinking, ‘Hey, can I put ourselves in the best position seeding-wise,’ while also you’re thinking to yourself how important byes are and creating them if you don’t earn the right for the first-round bye. Those are all things you’ve got to think through and go through.
“I think a lot of guys would say last year that that was a big deal, being able to have a built-in bye last year to set us up for what we ultimately did last year.”
C’mon, Nick! I’m giving you the benefit of the doubt here. You’re only doing that thing where you play the dummy on TV. We both know how good at this job you are. Few coaches in the NFL have as good of an understanding of what it takes to win in this league. Nobody has a better feel for his team, for his players, for his competitive reality. You know who the Eagles are and what they need and what situations will set them up for success.
Surely, you would agree with this long list of things that your team doesn’t need:
The Eagles don’t need a wild-card matchup against the Rams. Nor the 49ers. Nor the Seahawks. But especially not the Rams.
They don’t need a divisional round road game against a team they’ve already lost to in a stadium where the high temperature on Monday was 24 degrees with wind speeds well into the double digits.
They certainly don’t need any whiff of a quarterback controversy, which means they certainly don’t need to spend next week prepping for a playoff game while answering questions about Tanner McKee. And that means they don’t need their home crowd to watch McKee shred the hapless Commanders on Sunday, one week after Jalen Hurts failed to complete a pass in the second half of their narrow win over the Bills.
The Eagles would eliminate all of these possibilities by securing the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs. So, why wouldn’t they try their darndest to do so? Why would Sirianni even think about keeping Hurts on the sidelines and sending McKee and the second-teamers out there on Sunday?
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I’m assuming the argument is as follows. The Eagles do not control their own destiny with regard to the second seed. If the Bears beat the Lions next week, Chicago gets the No. 2 seed, regardless of how the Eagles fare against the Commanders. The Lions don’t have anything to play for and the Bears just came up 3 yards short of beating a 49ers team that has a 50% chance to enter the playoffs as the NFC’s top overall seed. Chances are, the Bears beat the Lions (they are 2.5-point favorites). Thus, chances are, the Eagles are locked into the third seed and will be hosting one of the three NFC West powers instead of the sputtering Packers. In which case, the Eagles would gain far more by giving their starters an extra week to rest and prepare for the playoffs than they would by winning a meaningless game.
OK, I’ll admit. It’s a compelling argument, especially when you consider how much the Eagles seemed to gain by resting their starters in Week 18 last season.
An even more compelling argument is the one that Sirianni wouldn’t dare say out loud. I suspect it might be the real reason he is giving serious thought to resting his starters. The reason is Sirianni himself. And his coaches. If the Eagles punt on Week 18, it will allow the coaching staff and front office to spend an extra week preparing for the playoffs. It will give Hurts and the rest of the starters the ability to participate in that scouting and game-planning process. That’s a big, big deal.
It doesn’t really matter that the Eagles don’t know who they will be playing. The extra week would allow them to prepare for everybody, and those preparations can pay dividends throughout the playoffs if and when they run into those teams. In short, rest for the players is more of a bonus. The real benefit of looking past the Commanders is the preparation.
On the other hand … The benefits of the No. 2 seed are much more real this year than they are in a lot of years. The Packers are, by far, the easier matchup in the wild-card round. You’d much rather host them and then host a divisional round game and then potentially host an NFC championship game than any of the alternatives.
As for the McKee thing … Sirianni will shrug it off. I can’t imagine it will be a consideration. But you are fooling yourself if you don’t look at it as a potential downside. If Hurts’ backup goes out there and looks like a world-beater on the eve of the playoffs, it will only ratchet up the pressure on the Eagles’ starter. To be clear, the people calling for McKee would be wildly off base. It’s a silly notion to think anybody but Hurts gives the Eagles the best chance to win a football game. But perceptions are what they are. And they can definitely bleed into a locker room.
» READ MORE: Eagles’ inexplicable second half offense nearly soils defensive gem vs. Josh Allen and the Bills
Long story short, Sirianni’s decision is much tougher than it looks at first glance. The extra week of internal preparation is incredibly valuable. The Eagles can still beat the Commanders with the backups playing, while allowing the starters to focus their practice weeks on the postseason.
I just keep coming back to one thought. Imagine if everything breaks in a certain direction. The Bears lose. The Rams end up as the sixth seed. But the Eagles’ backups lose to the Commanders and their road to the Super Bowl ends up being home vs. the Rams, then on the road at the Bears, then on the road at the Seahawks or 49ers.
All season, Sirianni preaches that the NFL is all about handling the opponent in front of you and then letting the other stuff sort itself out. Now, more than ever, he should listen to himself.