Eagles vs. Vikings in Week 7: Here are the numbers that matter

Was Thursday’s loss to the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium rock bottom for the Eagles? They can only hope.

The Eagles, after a mini-bye, return to the NovaCare Complex this week to gear up for a Week 7 road game against Minnesota, and it’s up in the air which Vikings quarterback they’ll be facing. It could be old friend Carson Wentz if J.J. McCarthy (ankle) isn’t ready to go or if the Vikings decide to just roll with Wentz, who is 2-1 after taking over for McCarthy.

» READ MORE: What we know (and don’t) about the Eagles entering Week 7 vs. the Vikings

Regardless of who’s playing quarterback on the other team, the Eagles have some of their own problems to worry about.

Here’s a look at some of the numbers ahead of Eagles-Vikings:

Let’s start with the best unit of this matchup: Minnesota’s defense. The Vikings’ expected points added (EPA) per play against is a league-best -0.20, according to Next Gen Stats. (EPA is an indicator of how well a team performs compared to its expectation on each play based on down and yards to go.) That number is helped greatly by the NFL’s best passing defense, which is allowing -0.42 expected points against per passing play. The Houston Texans are next on the list at -0.26.

So, yeah, the Vikings have a good defense. They get after the quarterback at a relatively high clip (36.6% pressure rate, 11th in the NFL) and are one of just two teams allowing fewer than 160 passing yards per game. Former Eagles cornerback Isaiah Rodgers, who many fans wish was still here, is off to a great start.

But let’s add some necessary context here. The Vikings haven’t necessarily faced a murderers’ row of quarterbacking talent. Minnesota’s five games so far have come against Caleb Williams, Michael Penix , Jake Browning, Aaron Rodgers, and Dillon Gabriel. One rookie, one first-year starter, one backup, one senior citizen by NFL standards, and then Williams, whose completion percentage (61.6%) ranks 27th among qualified quarterbacks.

Make an all-star team from Minnesota’s first six opponents, and the quarterback, top two receivers, and tight end might all come from the Eagles.

This ignores, of course, that the Eagles’ passing offense is broken and ranks 22nd in EPA per pass play. But a get-right showing is still possible, even against a unit that has so far played elite pass defense. It would behoove the Eagles, too, to be less predictable and find ways to open up their running game.

» READ MORE: The Eagles have problems that need solving. The recent play of Jalen Hurts is one of them.

The Eagles continue to struggle stopping the run. Their 9.8% run stuff rate, according to Next Gen Stats, is the worst in the NFL and only five teams are allowing more than the Eagles’ 134.3 rushing yards per game.

Jordan Davis has faded a little after his strong start. Jalen Carter (shoulder, heel) had been playing injured and then missed Thursday’s game. The Eagles’ edge rushing corps has been in flux and took another hit when Za’Darius Smith abruptly retired Monday.

Next on the calendar is Jordan Mason. The Vikings are still without Aaron Jones, who is on injured reserve, but Mason has performed well as the lead back. He’s 13th in yards per carry (4.7) among qualified running backs and is a speedster in the open field. But he’s not a great runner after contact, so it will be key for the Eagles to defeat blocks and get to Mason early to slow him down and get Minnesota in obvious passing situations. The Eagles defense struggled with the Giants’ physicality on Thursday.

Why get Minnesota into obvious passing downs? Even after losing Rodgers in free agency and not replacing him adequately, the Eagles are playing pretty solid defense against the pass. Their -0.12 EPA per passing play allowed, according to Next Gen, is seventh in the NFL despite a pressure rate (32%) that ranks 20th and a sack rate (3.9%) that is 28th.

Quinyon Mitchell’s health will obviously be a big deal after he left Thursday’s game with a hamstring injury in the first half and never returned. But Mitchell has the ability to neutralize Justin Jefferson, and although the Vikings recently got Jordan Addison back, Wentz and McCarthy aren’t world-beaters with the football. Their combined turnover-worthy play total of eight, according to Pro Football Focus, would be among the league’s highest. Wentz has made four such plays in three starts, while McCarthy made four such plays in two starts.

The Eagles have had their issues in coverage, but they’ve also given up more yards than they should mostly because of poor tackling. The Eagles have surrendered +153 yards after the catch over expected, according to Next Gen, and only one team, the Bengals, has allowed more. Drew Mukuba missed a key tackle on a Giants touchdown Thursday. Kelee Ringo has had his share of whiffs.

Jefferson and Addison could prove difficult to handle in space.

That’s the chance the Eagles have to make the playoffs as of Monday morning: 59.2%, according to FTN Fantasy. Much closer to a flip of a coin than Eagles fans should be comfortable with, and a pretty unlikely percentage just two weeks ago when the Eagles were 4-0.

Nothing is coming easily for the Eagles right now, so it’s not fair to ignore some of the “easier” games they have left on the calendar, but keep in mind that they are 4-2 and still play Detroit, Green Bay, the Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo, and Washington (twice).

The Eagles opened as small favorites over the Vikings, and they have the more talented roster. Still, they appear to have some issues that may take more than a week to fix, and the pressure to win is dialed up after consecutive losses that have tightened the margin for error with tougher contests looming.

Nick Sirianni’s teams have done well with extended rest. Under Sirianni, the Eagles are 9-3 in games that come at least 10 days after their previous contests (including playoff games). That’s a winning percentage of .750, which is more than Sirianni’s career winning percentage of .699 (including playoffs).

It’s probably not fair to add them to the tally, but the Eagles are 5-0 in season openers under Sirianni, which come with an extended runway to prepare.

The Eagles had a lot to work on during their mini-bye, and we’ll learn Sunday if they’ve righted the ship. That being said, they’re not more rested than Minnesota, which had a Week 6 bye after consecutive games across the pond.