Jason Kelce backs Nick Sirianni’s aggressiveness on fourth down, but wonders if the analytics will change

Ultimately, the Eagles pulled out a win in New Orleans on Sunday. After outplaying the Saints for much of the game, the Birds failed to score until the fourth quarter and needed a touchdown in the final minutes to earn a 15-12 victory.

But on three occasions, the Eagles had the opportunity to kick a field goal, and instead Nick Sirianni elected to go for it on fourth down, failing to convert twice (the other drive eventually ended with a Jalen Hurts fumble). The Eagles also opted for a pass play on third-and-11 on the edge of field-goal range, instead of rushing to get within easier range for Jake Elliott. That pass fell incomplete and Elliott missed a 60-yard field-goal try.

» READ MORE: Nick Sirianni doesn’t elaborate much on his decision to go for it on fourth-and-1 against the Saints

That’s nine potential points — points the Eagles could have used.

Overall, offense has been at a premium lately, as scoring across the league has been trending down in recent years.

*Through three weeks

This year’s team scoring average of 21.2 points per game is the lowest in the NFL since 2006. And while the Eagles are currently above that at 23.3 points, they’re also trending down — they averaged 28.1 points in 2022 and 25.5 in 2023. With how tough it’s becoming to score in the modern NFL, former Eagles center Jason Kelce wondered if metrics will shift and be more biased in favor of taking the points as the season goes on.

“I don’t know how that changes these analytical metrics on like a per-season basis, right?” Kelce said Wednesday on the New Heights podcast. “We’re only three weeks in, but across the league, people aren’t putting up as many points. All of these games have been pretty low-scoring. Maybe take some points and maybe that changes what these metrics are.”

The Eagles won, sure, but, leaving those points on the table turned the game into a nail-biter when the Saints finally broke through and scored a touchdown. And despite the win, Sirianni has faced plenty of criticism this week.

» READ MORE: Sielski: Nick Sirianni and the Eagles never make it easy on themselves, do they?

“The reason the fourth-down decisions are being criticized is because they haven’t been working,” Kelce said. “They did work in 2022, and they helped us get to a Super Bowl. Nick Sirianni, he has seen firsthand how much going for it on fourth down can help and improve your chances of winning a game. Obviously, when it’s not working, it does the opposite.”

Kelce enjoyed being aggressive and having the ability to impact the game on fourth down. But in certain situations, like just before the half on Sunday, he thought the cost of not kicking the field goal was higher than the potential gain from one more shot at the end zone. Either way, he’s still riding with his former coach.

“Bottom line, Nick has had a lot of success in this league being risky,” Kelce said. “The last two years, I think there’s been a number of instances that have stuck out. But ultimately, it’s one of those things — you live by the sword, you die by the sword. I love the confidence. I love how I’ve seen it work in our favor.

“And I just think — I just know Nick and I know how much time he puts into this and I just think that, by and large, he is making better decisions than most coaches. I really believe that. I watch other guys late in games — you know, game management, clock management, I just think Nick is still one of the better coaches in the league at that. And I know the decisions haven’t gone right. I know this one didn’t work out, the one coming out of half didn’t work out.”

“Still found a way to win the football game,” Travis Kelce chimed in.

» READ MORE: Dallas Goedert defends Nick Sirianni’s play-calling

If not for some late-game heroics from Dallas Goedert and Saquon Barkley, however, that might not have been the case.

“I’ve still got faith. I’m still riding with Nick,” Jason added.