NFL betting: Derrick Henry and the odds for the playoff’s leading rusher

The last time Derrick Henry played was on Halloween. It was a nightmare game for Henry, who was bottled up by the Colts defense for 68 yards on 28 carries and broke a bone in his foot. It was so long ago that people in Indianapolis still loved Carson Wentz.

The Titans trudged on and still managed to get the No. 1 seed in the AFC despite not having their most potent offensive weapon for the second half of the season. And has there ever been a more mundane No. 1 seed?

It’s unclear what to expect out of Henry on Saturday. The consensus over/under on his rushing yards was 79.5. PointsBet was offering +175 that he’d hit 100. Henry’s first and last TD odds were +450 (though watch out for some at +350), and his odds to score a TD anytime were around -185.

The prop that caught my eye was at BetMGM for Henry to score a touchdown, but the Titans to lose the game at +225.

“He definitely weighs on you,” Cincinnati defensive tackle D.J. Reader said. “He’s a big back, but you’ve got to do your job of not letting him get going out there and put hits on him. Make sure we’re wearing on him just as much as he’s wearing on us.”

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Cincinnati (47) at Tennessee (-3.5), 4:30 p.m.: Liked the line the other day from NFL Network analyst and former NFL defensive back DeAngelo Hall, “As the weather gets colder, I DO NOT want to tackle Derrick Henry.” … A DraftKings bettor earlier in the week put $100,000 on Derrick Henry to have the most rushing yards for the entire postseason. The payout would be $700,000. Those odds, however, had dropped down to +450 – same as San Fran’s Elijah Mitchell. More on this below. … Cincinnati made five trips to the red zone on Saturday against the Raiders. They kicked three field goals and scored just two touchdowns, one aided by a controversial call that should have been overturned.

The pick: Cincinnati money line (Caesars was among those at +165 Friday evening) is one play. The other is a tease that takes the Bengals up to 9.5.

San Francisco (47) at Green Bay (-5.5), 8:15 p.m.: Good news for the Niners as defensive end Nick Bosa (concussion) and linebacker Fred Warner (ankle) have been cleared to play after leaving early last week against Dallas. … Green Bay was a league-best 7-1 at home against the spread this season. Just two of their eight games at Lambeau Field were against playoff teams. They beat Pittsburgh in Week 4, 27-17, to cover a 6-point number, and took care of the Rams in Week 12 (36-28) as 2-point ‘dogs.

The pick: The well-rested Packers at less than a touchdown is intriguing, but under 47 is the call here. Oh, and bundle up. Weather.com says it could drop to 0 degrees Saturday night.

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L.A. Rams (48) at Tampa Bay (-3), 3 p.m.: The Buccaneers covered seven of their last eight at home, while the Rams were 4-5 ATS away from L.A. … The Bucs have scored 30+ points in five consecutive playoff games, one shy of the record set by the Saints (2009-11). BetMGM’s line on the Bucs is 25.5 at -110. They’re at +160 over 29.5.

The pick: The line feels about a field goal too light. Tampa Bay to cover the 3.

Buffalo (54) at Kansas City (-1.5), 6:30 p.m.: Saving the best game of the weekend for last. This is a rematch of last year’s AFC championship game, and two of the league’s better offenses. “The handle for Bills-Chiefs will be the biggest of the playoffs so far,” said Adam Pullen, assistant director of trading at Caesars, “and it’ll give the Conference Championships a run for their money too.” … This is Buffalo’s third game at Arrowhead Stadium in the last 12 months. … Please note that CBS has this game, not NBC, the usual Sunday-night network. … Buffalo running back Devin Singletary has scored a touchdown in five consecutive games. He’s even money to score on Sunday, +900 to score first/last.

The pick: Close the Niners’ tease with the Bills getting 7.5.

Last week: 4-1. Season: 24-8.

» READ MORE: Former Eagle Ryan Bates flourishing with Bills and dreaming of a Super Bowl

DraftKings’ odds for playoff leaders in various categories. Number in parentheses is the player’s total from last week, if he played:

Elijah Mitchell (96), SF +450

Derrick Henry, Ten. +450

Devin Singletary (81), Buf. +700

Aaron Jones, GB +1200

Sony Michel (58), LAR +1200

Joe Mixon (48), Cin. +1200

Travis Kelce (108), KC +450

Mike Evans (117), TB +450

Davante Adams, GB +750

Ja’Marr Chase (116), Cin. +800

Cooper Kupp (61), LAR +800

Tyreek Hill (57), KC +1200

Stefon Diggs (60), Buf. +1400

Deebo Samuel (38), SF +1800

Patrick Mahomes (404), KC -130

Josh Allen (308), Buf. +250

Tom Brady (271), TB +550

Aaron Rodgers, GB +1200

Matthew Stafford (202), LAR +1600

Joe Burrow (244), Cin. +2000

Ryan Tannehill, Ten. +4000

Jimmy Garoppolo (172), SF +6500

UFC: The heavyweight bout between Ciryl Gane (-150, DraftKings) and Francis Ngannou (+130) leads the card for UFC 270 in Anaheim. Ngannou’s former trainer, Fernand Lopez, is now in Gane’s corner, and everybody involved hates one another. Sounds like Thanksgiving at my house.

CAR: The SuperBook at the Westgate in Vegas opened with Denny Hamlin (8-1) as the favorite for next month’s Daytona 500. He was followed by Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, and Chase Elliott at 12-1. Last year’s winner, Michael McDowell (no, not the former Doobie Brother; that’s Michael McDonald) is at 80-1.

CBB: No. 2 Auburn hosts No. 12 Kentucky on Saturday. This is notable because Auburn was THIS CLOSE to being ranked No. 1 for the first time in school history, finishing just four voting points behind Gonzaga. If the Tigers can beat the Wildcats on Saturday, they’d probably jump the Zags. Auburn has covered seven in a row.

CFB: No surprise that Alabama quarterback Bryce Young (+250) and Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud (+350) were atop Caesars’ opening 2022 Heisman odds. But it was kind of interesting that Caleb Williams (+500) is third on the odds board. The former Oklahoma quarterback entered the transfer portal, yet hasn’t landed on a team yet. Nobody asked, but an appealing long shot is Texas running back Bijan Robinson at 20-1. The Longhorns host Alabama in Week 2 (Sept. 10), so we’ll know real early whether to rip the ticket up.

» READ MORE: Joe Banner: Will the Eagles take a QB in the middle of the NFL draft?

Everything’s relative, right?

Todd Dewey, of the Las Vegas Review-Journal, recently caught up with “Mattress Mack,” the Houston businessman who combines wild promotions with his furniture stores and outrageous sports bets.

Mack is a friendly sort when he’s making his huge plays. Suitcase full of cash, and a smile on his face like he’s dropping off his laundry. It turns out he knows how to lose, as well. He lost $2.7 million when Alabama fell to Georgia and had another $2 mil on Patriots’ Super Bowl plays go up in smoke when New England got smoled by Buffalo in last weekend’s wild-card round.

“You know how long it takes me to get over it,” McIngvale asked the LVRJ rhetorically. “Two seconds each. A gambler has to be resilient, if anything. They knock you down and you’ve got to get back up.”

It’s all relative. Fun if you have money to burn. Dangerous if you’re desperately sweating out a $50 play on St. Mary’s-Hawaii. Call 1-800-GAMBLER for help. They’re pros. No problem is too big or too small.