NFL playoff picks: Vegas Vic puts best bet on Green Bay, is cautious about Kansas City

Inquirer handicapper Vegas Vic lays out his thinking for Sunday’s conference championship games. He likes the Packers as the favorite, but Kansas City? Well, he has some concerns (i.e. Patrick Mahomes).

Gonna start each selection with some vital spread stats, just in case you have not had the time.

Looking at the Packers, they are 14-3 straight up and 11-6 against the spread. They are 6-3 ATS at home and 9-5 as a favorite. They went Over 10 times and Under 7 (5-4 to the Over at home).

The Bucs are 13-5 straight up and 10-8 against the spread. They are 5-5 ATS on the road and 3-1 as an underdog. They went Over 10 times and Under 8 (6-4 to the Over away).

As if Tom Brady needed MORE motivation, TB12 has been carrying a GIGANTIC chip on his shoulder ever since being picked in the sixth round with the 199th selection in the 2000 draft. Twenty-one years later, with SIX Super Bowl rings, the CHIP has served him well. There were six QBs selected ahead of him: Chad Pennington, Giovanni Carmazzi, Chris Redman, Tee Martin, Marc Bulger and Spergon Wynn. OK, Tom. You PROVED your point. We remember NONE of them!

Now, Bill Belichick’s girlfriend, Linda Holliday, comes out and says, “Tom didn’t score [Sunday] night … not once! Defense won that game. Were you even watching.” So now Brady has another arrow in his quiver, another chip on his shoulder, to silence Double B’s lady.

Speaking of silencing someone, the Bucs did that to Aaron Rodgers earlier in the season at Tampa, stomping the Packers, 38-10. It was absolutely Rodgers’ WORST game of the season. He was only 16-for-35 for 160 yards with no TDs and 2 INTs. Since that game back in October, Mr. Discount Double Check has been virtually unstoppable.

Kudos to the Bucs defense for looking tremendous last weekend against the Saints, but Drew Brees couldn’t throw the ball more than 20 yards. His average pass play was 3.9 yards. That’s THREE POINT NINE YARDS PER PASS! YEA, I’M YELLING!

You think Tampa’s gonna be able to load up the “D” on Rodgers, who can throw it 50 yards with a casual flick of his wrist? UH-UH! You think the Cheeseheads are gonna turn the ball over FOUR times? UH-UH!

Everyone expects TB12 to guide his Bucs to the Super Bowl, which will be played on Tampa’s home field, but not this keyboard. We’re all about the Cheese, and there’s just one thing left to say. This IS my BEST BET, BAAYBEEE!!!

Staff picks:

Looking at the Chiefs, they are 15-2 straight up and 6-10-1 against the spread. They are 3-6 ATS at home and 5-9-1 as a favorite. They went Over 8 times and Under 8 times with one push (5-4 to the Under at home).

Checking in on the Bills, they are 15-3 straight up and 12-6 against the spread. They are 5-3 ATS on the road and 4-1 as an underdog. They went Over 12 times and Under 5 with one push (6-1-1 to the Over on the road).

Totally understand that everyone wants to throw down on this game, and everyone has an opinion. But unless you are on the KC medical staff, or are one of his doctors, you have NO IDEA what the magical Patrick Mahomes will do Sunday. Even if you are part of the medical staff, or are one of his doctors, you STILL have NO IDEA. So please, PLEASE, do NOT listen to anyone who tells you they are making this their Game of the Year, their Lock of the Century, their 1,000-star play.

Hang up, throw the email into the trash, and SAVE your money!

The line opened KC -5 and probably would’ve jumped to at least -6 if Mahomes was 100% and they had 76,416 crazed fans inside Arrowhead Stadium. Well, he isn’t, and they’ll have only 16,000 and change in the seats.

Kansas City beat the Bills up in Buffalo back in October, 26-17, and covered the -5.5 point spread. Mahomes was 21-for-26 for 225 yards with 2 TDs and ZERO INTs. Josh Allen had a lousy day, completing only 14 of 27 for 122 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT. But the difference-maker in that game was KC rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He rumbled for 161 yards but did NOT play last week, and is listed as questionable for this game with an ankle injury. If he does play, and the Chiefs get back WR Sammy Watkins as well, that’s trouble for the Buffs.

So, basically, it all boils down to Mahomes’ noggin. If he is cleared, and is clear-headed, then the Chiefs are obviously my pick. But, and it’s a big BUT, what if he gets knocked down and his head bounces off the Latitude 36 Bermudagrass? That would be a HUGE problem, and Chad Henne is certainly NOT the answer.

Gonna suggest a very light play to the Chiefs if Mahomes starts, but PLEASE, I ask you to follow along with me as I live-tweet the game, @vegasvigorish, and throw out some delicious in-play wagers.

Staff picks:

Last week

Ed Barkowitz: 1-3 (0-1 Best Bet)

Les Bowen: 2-2, 1-0

Paul Domowitch: 4-0, 1-0

Marcus Hayes: 3-1, 1-0

Jeff McLane: 1-3, 0-1

EJ Smith: 3-1, 1-0

Vegas Vic: 3-1, 0-1