NFL playoff picture: Eagles can clinch, Cowboys face long odds, and all the NFC scenarios

The playoff math couldn’t be easier for the Eagles (9-5).

A win Saturday night against the Washington Commanders (4-10) and the Birds will clinch the NFC East, and with it a playoff spot and at least one home postseason game at the Linc.

The Eagles would also clinch the No. 3 seed or better (more on that later) if their win is paired with a Carolina Panthers (7-7) loss Sunday.

Even if the Eagles lose to the Commanders, they’ll still clinch the NFC East if the Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1) lose to the Los Angeles Chargers (10-4) Sunday.

It would mark the first time a team has won the NFC East in back-to-back seasons since the Birds won four straight division titles from 2001 to 2004. It would also be the fifth straight postseason appearance under Birds head coach Nick Sirianni.

Another fun fact: Since being named the Birds’ starting quarterback in 2021, Jalen Hurts has never taken a snap in a game where the Eagles have been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. He did start four games after replacing Carson Wentz at the end of the dreadful 2020 season, where the Eagles finished 4-11-1.

Once the Birds lock up the division, the focus shifts to playoff seeding. The Eagles enter Week 16 as the NFC’s No. 3 seed, and odds are good that’s where they’ll end the season. That would mean hosting a wild-card game against the No. 6 team, currently the San Francisco 49ers (10-4).

Here’s a look at the current playoff picture for the Eagles and the rest of the NFL:

Following their loss last week to the Minnesota Vikings, the Cowboys no longer even have a slim chance to steal the final wild-card spot.

That means the Cowboys’ only path to the postseason is to overtake the Eagles and win the NFC East. That would require the Cowboys winning out and the Eagles losing their final three games — two against the Commanders and one against the Buffalo Bills.

Technically the Cowboys could also win the division if the Eagles tie one of their final three games and both the Birds and Cowboys end the season with a 9-7-1 record. In that highly unlikely circumstance, the Cowboys would win the tiebreaker with a better record among division foes.

Both the Commanders and New York Giants (2-12) have been eliminated from the playoffs for weeks.

The Seattle Seahawks (12-3) clinched a playoff spot and moved into the No. 1 seed Thursday night, thanks to their thrilling overtime win against the Los Angeles Rams (11-4), who dropped down to No. 5.

The Seahawks now control their own playoff destiny. If they win out, they’ll end the season with the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

The same goes for the 49ers.

Despite being one game back, San Francisco and Seattle face off in Week 18. The 49ers defeated the Vikings way back in Week 1, so a win in Week 18 would clinch a tiebreaker and send the NFC playoffs through Santa Clara, where this year’s Super Bowl is being held.

First the 49ers still need to clinch a playoff spot, which they would do with with a win against the Indianapolis Colts (8-6) Monday night or a Detroit Lions (8-6) loss.

Speaking of the Lions, it’s possible Jared Goff and company could become the rare NFL team eliminated from the playoffs with a winning record with two weeks left to play. For that to happen Sunday, the Lions would need to lose to the Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6) and the Green Bay Packers (9-4-1) would need their second tie of the season against the Chicago Bears (10-4).

When’s the last time an NFL team ended the season with two ties? 1973, before the league introduced overtime.

As for the Bears, they’ll clinch their first playoff spot since the 2020 season with a win against the Packers and a Lions loss.

The Packers will clinch a playoff spot with a win against the Bears and a Lions loss.

Then there’s the NFC South, where the Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7) play twice over the next three weeks, beginning Sunday in Charlotte. Those two games will decide who hosts a playoff game and who heads home.

Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos (12-2) can clinch both the AFC West and the No. 1 seed Sunday.

The division is easy — a Broncos win against the Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4) paired with a Chargers loss would secure Denver’s first AFC West title since 2015.

To lock up the No. 1 seed, the Broncos would need to win and losses by the Chargers, New England Patriots (11-3), and Buffalo Bills (10-4).

Four other AFC teams can clinch playoff spots in Week 16 with a win and losses by either the Colts or Houston Texans (9-5) — the Patriots, Bills, Chargers, and Jaguars.

There are no AFC teams that can be eliminated from playoff contention this week.

The Baltimore Ravens (7-7) enter Week 16 just one game behind the Steelers in the AFC North with both teams scheduled to meet in Week 18.

Yes, but you’d have better odds buying a Powerball ticket.

A Birds win and a Panthers loss in Week 16 will clinch the Eagles the No 3 seed or better, where they’re likely to end the season.

For the Eagles to end up in either the No. 1 or No. 2 seeds, the Birds would likely need to win out and get a lot of help. Wharton professor Deniz Selman outlined all the details:

The scenarios where the Eagles are eliminated from any chance of moving up are more straightforward:

The first playoff game will take place on wild-card weekend, beginning Jan. 10.

Six games will take place in the first round of the playoffs, airing across Fox, CBS, NBC, and ESPN/ABC. Amazon will also exclusively stream a wild-card game on Prime Video for the second straight season.

Super Bowl LX (or 60, for those who don’t like Roman numerals) is being held at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., home of the San Francisco 49ers. NBC will broadcast this year’s Super Bowl.

Here are the sites announced for future Super Bowls: