Eagles-Broncos film preview: Keys to stopping Bo Nix, the challenge for Quinyon Mitchell, and more

Don’t let the Denver Broncos’ 2-2 record fool you. They travel to Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday with a fearsome pass rusher, a strong offensive line, and an excellent offensive mind in head coach Sean Payton that is sure to give the Eagles’ defense fits.

All the focus throughout the week has been on the A.J. Brown saga after a disappointing performance in Tampa. But Sunday’s game should be an entertaining one against an uncommon foe.

From a diverse running game to a star-studded defense, here’s what the film showed of the Broncos, who could threaten to end the Eagles’ undefeated season.

» READ MORE: Eagles vs. Broncos in Week 5: Here are the numbers that matter

The Broncos offense primarily uses 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end) on 64.03% of their snaps, according to Sumer Sports. But the offense throws plenty of unique formations at teams, including 21 personnel (two backs and one tight end) at a 3.95% rate, 22 personnel (two backs and two tight ends) at a 5.14% rate, and 01 personnel (no running backs, one tight end) at a 2.37% rate.

Payton has been known for his diverse personnel groupings dating back to his time in New Orleans, and has brought that creativity to Denver. The offense, though, is led by its running game, with the fifth-most rushing yards per game in the NFL (143.3) and the third-most rushes of 10 yards or more with 17, according to Next Gen Stats.

J.K. Dobbins is the lead back for Denver, though he shares snaps with rookie running back R.J. Harvey, a dynamic runner and receiver out of the backfield. The Broncos employ both gap and zone scheme runs, but their power running game with a fullback leading is one of their most effective plays. The backside guard on those runs pulls across the line of scrimmage to pick up the playside linebacker while the fullback, either Adam Prentice or backup tight end Nate Adkins, kick out the playside edge defender.

In addition to utilizing power, counter, and duo scheme runs, the offense also stretches out the defense with jet sweep handoffs to wide receivers Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims. Both are speedsters and have taken those handoffs for big gains. And when the defense starts to anticipate those receiver handoffs, the Broncos offense fakes the sweep and pitches it out to Dobbins or Harvey for big gains.

The running game success has made the play-action passing game especially effective for second-year quarterback Bo Nix. He has completed 26 of 40 passes for 268 yards and two touchdowns on play-action throws, according to Pro Football Focus. Fourteen of Nix’s 45 dropbacks on such passes have been turned into first downs, and according to Next Gen Stats, he has been pressured at the second-lowest rate (20.5%) on play-action passes.

Stopping Denver on early down runs and forcing Nix to throw on third-and-long will be a recipe for success for the Eagles defense. On third-and-long passes this season, according to Next Gen Stats, Nix has the sixth-fastest average time to throw (2.63 seconds), meaning he throws short of the sticks more often than not, which will force the Eagles to tackle well in space.

When Nix does drop back without play-action this season, he has rarely been sacked or even pressured because of his stellar offensive line. Nix has the second lowest quarterback pressures faced this season (33) among qualified passers, according to Next Gen Stats, and has been sacked just three times, tied for the second fewest in the NFL among starting quarterbacks.

The Eagles’ pass rush struggles have forced them to blitz at a much higher rate than last season. And if the Eagles do end up blitzing, the remaining players in coverage must be on alert for Denver’s screen game.

Payton will throw running back screens on second and even third down at times, and Nix will take run-pass option screens out on the perimeter if the Eagles employ off coverage. That will mean cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Kelee Ringo or Adoree’ Jackson will need to not only tackle well in space, but get off blocks to disrupt those outside receiver screens.

But the biggest matchup will likely be Denver star wideout Courtland Sutton, the team’s leading receiver in yards (266) and touchdowns (three), against Mitchell, coming off a dominant performance in which he allowed just two receptions for six yards on six targets matched up with Tampa Bay’s Emeka Egbuka.

According to Next Gen Stats, since entering the NFL last season, Mitchell has matched up against opposing No. 1 receivers on 173 routes — the second-most in the NFL, trailing only Pat Surtain II’s 220 (we’ll have more on him in a bit). Mitchell has allowed just 0.9 yards per coverage snap since the start of last season, the sixth-fewest among cornerbacks.

The matchup will be particularly challenging for Mitchell, considering Sutton’s size (6-foot-4, 216 pounds) and Denver’s willingness to use him as a slot receiver (37 of 228 snaps per PFF) and in reduced formations. On third downs and in the red zone, Denver heavily targets Sutton, so expect Mitchell to see his fair share of targets again.

Meanwhile, the Eagles’ pass offense needs to get back on track, facing a Denver defense that primarily plays one high safety man coverage at a 34% rate, according to Fantasy Points Data. The next highest coverage rate is cover three, a one-high zone coverage with both corners responsible for one-third of the field and the lone safety covering the middle-third.

There will be one-on-one opportunities likely for Brown and quarterback Jalen Hurts to get back on track, but they’ll be facing NFL All-Pro corner Surtain, who has been targeted just 17 times in 154 coverage snaps, surrendering 11 catches as the nearest defender, according to Next Gen Stats. He has forced 58.8% of passing targets into tight-window throws and allowed an average target percentage of 1.3 yards, tied for the lowest in the NFL.

His counterpart, Riley Moss, is right behind him at 1.5 yards, but has been targeted 33 times already this season, and allowed 15 catches and one touchdown. Assuming Surtain follows Brown throughout the game, this week could be a breakout performance for DeVonta Smith, who hasn’t eclipsed 100 yards receiving in a game with Hurts at quarterback since last season’s Steelers game.

With the running game struggles, watch for the Eagles to try and hit some big plays in the vertical passing game early in the season.

Having Lane Johnson healthy for the Eagles’ offensive line for Sunday’s game is paramount. Top Denver pass rusher Nik Bonitto generated six pressures on 19 pass rushes (31.6%) against the Cincinnati Bengals last week, according to Next Gen Stats, and he has now generated six or more pressures in all four games this season and leads the NFL in quarterback pressures with 27.

It’s not just Bonitto either. Jonathon Cooper ranks 12th among pass rushers with 18 pressures and both players have among the fastest get-offs in the NFL, according to Next Gen Stats: Cooper is first at 0.69 seconds, and Bonitto is third at 0.72 seconds.

The team as a whole leads the NFL in sacks (15), quarterback pressures (74), pressure rate (48.1%), and have allowed the fewest passing touchdowns. If the Eagles get into predictable third-and-long situations, it could be a long day for Hurts and the offensive line.

They’re one of the better run defenses too, surrendering just 99.3 rushing yards per game, 11th in the NFL, and have allowed the third-fewest 10-yard-or-more runs (four), according to Next Gen Stats. Offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo will need to find creative ways to get Saquon Barkley in rhythm to help slow down Denver’s pass rush.