Eagles Week 10 film preview: What to look for vs. Packers

For the third time in 14 months, the Eagles and Packers will meet, this time on Monday night. Green Bay, which entered last weekend atop the NFC, lost to the Carolina Packers on Sunday and also lost one of their top playmakers in tight end Tucker Kraft, gone for the season with a torn ACL.

Still, this matchup should be a good measuring stick for both teams — Green Bay’s defense allows the fifth-lowest yards per game (286.4) and has the player with the second most quarterback pressures in Micah Parsons (44). The Eagles rediscovered their running game two weeks ago, upgraded their pass rusher room by trading for Jalean Phillips, and should be getting Cam Jurgens and A.J. Brown back on offense.

» READ MORE: Eagles at Packers in Week 10: Here are the numbers that matter

Here are keys to Monday’s prime-time matchup, from Jordan Love’s prowess against man coverage to the potential for another big rushing day for the Eagles:

Love has played efficiently this season, ranking fourth in completion percentage (70.8%) among qualified passers, and has the fourth-highest expected points added (which measures performance on a play-by-play basis) among qualified quarterbacks, according to Next Gen Stats.

Where he has shined most is on play-action. Love has completed 68.8% of his passes off play-action, according to Pro Football Focus, and Green Bay has the fifth-highest play-action rate in the NFL, according to Next Gen Stats (29.1%). In addition, the Packers have the sixth-highest early play-action rate in the NFL entering Week 10.

Head coach Matt LeFleur particularly likes stretching defenses vertically and horizontally on play-action passes, sometimes on the same play. One of Green Bay’s bread and butter plays is a crossing route and post route off play-action, and it’s led to some big passing gains to wide receivers Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson.

Because defenses have to respect the vertical passing game, Green Bay thrives in the intermediate passing game, where it has the second-highest EPA per pass (+1.03) on throws between 10 to 19 yards, according to Next Gen Stats. That dimension also opens up passes in the middle of the field off play-action.

With Kraft — the team leader in receiving yards (489) and receiving touchdowns (six) — on the shelf for the rest of the season, others players will be looked upon to step up, including backup tight end Luke Musgrave. On play-action this season, the reserve tight end has two catches of 20 or more yards and can stretch the field vertically. Musgrave could give Eagles linebackers Zack Baun, Jihaad Campbell, and Nakobe Dean trouble in man coverage situations.

Pre-snap motion is frequent in the Packers’ offense, similar to what the Eagles faced defensively against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 3. Roughly 68% of Green Bay’s offensive plays involve pre-snap movement, including on 161 of their 261 passing attempts.

The eye candy they present to the defense can move the linebackers and create advantages on play-action passes and screens especially. Two-back alignments also give Love extra blockers on plays that normally would signify running.

Wide receiver Savion Williams, who has just 15 touches this season, is part of their pre-snap deception, motioning into the backfield and across the formation behind Love. His potential threat on short screen passes and handoffs force defenses to pay attention to his pre-snap alignment and movement.

Green Bay has one of the stingiest defenses against shotgun runs, limiting teams to 3.7 yards per carry, lowest in the NFL, and surrendering just 33.3 yards per game against such runs, third-lowest in the NFL, according to Next Gen Stats. But against under-center runs, the Packers’ defense allows 4.2 yards per carry.

Overall, Green Bay’s run defense has been solid, allowing just 13 runs of 10 or more yards this season, but five of them have come in the last two games against the Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Eagles reintroduced under-center plays after the mini-bye that followed a Week 6 loss at the New York Giants. The play-action passing game against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 7 carried over to their Week 8 revenge win over the Giants’ defense.

It also opened up the under-center running game. The Eagles averaged 10.6 yards per carry on under-center runs against the Giants, which was the highest mark at the time by any team this season, according to Next Gen Stats.

With the Packers struggling against outside runs, especially on toss or pitch plays, the Eagles can bring back a similar game plan they employed against Minnesota, when they ran four toss plays with relative positive success.

Same-side shotgun runs have also given the Packers issues in recent weeks, especially against the Steelers in Week 8. The Eagles hit two big runs against the Giants two weeks ago with one each from Saquon Barkley and Tank Bigsby.

Parsons didn’t record a pressure in Green Bay’s loss to the Panthers, the first time that has happened in his career, but he still has the second-most pressures in the NFL and can wreak havoc from multiple spots.

The Eagles, especially tackles Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata, are well-acquainted with Parsons, who has 19 tackles, five sacks, and one forced fumble in seven career games against the Birds. But where he is aligned, especially over the center or either guard, could create issues for the Eagles on obvious passing downs. His gravity can open up opportunities for Lukas Van Ness and Rashan Gary to get after Jalen Hurts.

Meanwhile, Love has the fifth-fewest quarterback pressures this season (87) and has carved up defenses this year against the blitz, defined as five or more pass rushers. The Packers quarterback has completed 51 of 79 passes for 723 yards, has an 8-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio, and has the highest EPA against the blitz (+32.3), according to Next Gen Stats. He’s only been sacked three times on blitzes, tied for the third-fewest in the NFL.

If the Eagles bring the heat, the secondary better be ready for Love to attack vertically. The pass rush boost the Eagles should get from Phillips (29 pressures), with Jalyx Hunt coming off a career-high nine pressures against New York and the potential return of Nolan Smith this week might mean the Eagles blitz far less often on Monday night.