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Eagles-Patriots and the Week 11 numbers that matter | Paul Domowitch

A look at some of the key statistics heading into Sunday's Week 11 battle between the Eagles and Patriots.

Eagles defensive end Brandon Graham's strip sack of Tom Brady was one of the biggest plays in their Super Bowl LII win over the Patriots. The two teams meet Sunday at the Linc for the first time since that game.
Eagles defensive end Brandon Graham's strip sack of Tom Brady was one of the biggest plays in their Super Bowl LII win over the Patriots. The two teams meet Sunday at the Linc for the first time since that game.Read moreDAVID MAIALETTI / Staff Photographer

Tom Brady has a lower passer rating than Case Keenum. He has the lowest touchdown percentage of his career. The Patriots aren’t very good on third down and they’re 30th in opponent rush average. But they’re 8-1. Why? And are the Eagles better than their 5-4 record?

A statistical breakdown of Sunday’s Eagles-Patriots matchup:

Breaking down the G.O.A.T.

--Brady’s touchdown percentage is the lowest of his career. He’s thrown just 14 touchdown passes in 355 attempts (1 per 25.3 attempts). He’s averaged 1 per 18.3 attempts in his career.

--Brady’s yards per attempt average (7.1) is his is lowest since 2013 (6.9). In the Patriots’ last three games, he’s averaged just 6.2 yards per attempt.

--Brady has four touchdown passes and three interceptions in the Patriots’ last four games. He’s thrown an interception in five of New England’s last six games.

--Brady already has two games without a touchdown pass. He hasn’t had three touchdown-less games since 2009.

--The Patriots are 16th in the league in third-down percentage (39.7). Brady has an 80.6 third-down passer rating (53.6 completion percentage, three of his five interceptions). That’s his lowest since ’06 (76.8).

--Running back James White is Brady’s go-to guy on third down. He has 18 third-down receptions, 14 of them for first downs. White’s 18 third-down catches are the fourth most in the league.

--The Patriots have converted just 30.8 percent of their third downs of six yards or more (16 of 52). That’s the 10th lowest success rate in the league

--Brady has a .686 win percentage on the road in his career (96-44). He has an .862 win percentage at home (119-19).

--The Eagles have allowed 27 pass plays of 20 yards or more. Only 10 teams have allowed fewer.

--They’ve given up just three touchdown passes in the last three games and have held their last three opponents to 6.5 yards per attempt.

--The Eagles have just five interceptions in their last seven games.

A look back at LII

--The Eagles converted 10 of 16 third-down opportunities against the Patriots in Super Bowl LII. Nick Foles was 11-for-14 for 169 yards, with two touchdowns on third down. Nine of his 14 third-down passes produced first downs. Foles had a 158.1 third-down passer rating in the Eagles’ three postseason games that year. That’s the highest third-down playoff passer rating in the Super Bowl era.

--Forty-one of the Eagles’ 71 plays against the Patriots in LII were run with 11-personnel (1RB, 1TE, 3WR). Twenty-two, including “Philly Philly,’’ were run with 12-personnel. Six were with 13-personnel. Two others were with 02 personnel (0 RB, 2TE, 3WRs). The Eagles passed on 15 of their 22 plays with 12-personnel. Foles was just 6-for-14 for 46 yards and a touchdown with 12. Trey Burton, of course, was 1-for-1 for 1 yard and a TD.

--Wide receiver Nelson Agholor was targeted 11 times in LII and had nine catches for 84 yards and 5 first downs. Tight end Zach Ertz was targeted nine times and had seven catches for 67 yards, one TD and five first downs.

--Brady was sacked just once in LII. That was the huge strip sack by Brandon Graham in the fourth quarter. That came on a four-man rush. The Eagles blitzed Brady seven times on 49 pass plays in LII. He was 5-for-7 for 88 yards when they sent extra rushers against him.

--The Eagles ran 53 of their 71 plays out of shotgun in LII. Three of Foles’ four touchdown passes and 323 of his 374 passing yards came out of shotgun.

--Brady targeted his tight ends and running backs 23 times in LII. They had 12 catches for 183 yards and two touchdowns, both by Rob Gronkowski.

--In 2017, White led the Patriots in third-down receptions with 20, but didn’t have any against the Eagles in LII. White was targeted six times overall by Brady in LII and had just two catches for 21 yards. Safety Malcolm Jenkins was largely responsible for shutting down White in that game.

Turf war

--The Patriots’ average drive start in LII was just the 22.6-yard line. Only one of their 11 possessions in that game started at better than their own 25-yard line. Their shortest touchdown drive was 75 yards.

--Through the first 10 weeks of the season, the Patriots are first in the league in average drive start (33.4). Their league-high 27 takeaways have a lot to do with that. Ten of their 27 offensive touchdowns have come on drives of 75 yards or more. Twelve have come on drives of 60 yards or less, including six on drives of 50 yards or less.

--The Eagles are sixth in the league in average drive start (29.7). Their average drive start in their five wins was the 32.3 yard line. In their four losses, it was the 26.6. Eleven of their 25 offensive TDs have been drives of 75 yards or more. Nine have been 60 yards or less. Seven of those nine 60-yards-or-less TD drives came in their five wins.

--The Eagles are eighth in the league in red-zone offense. They’ve converted 63.3 percent of their chances inside the 20 into touchdowns. But their 30 red-zone opportunities are only the 18th most in the league. The Patriots are tied with Seattle for the most red-zone chances (40). But while the Seahawks are fourth in red-zone touchdown percentage (67.5), the Patriots are tied for 21st (50.0). The Patriots defense has had the fewest red-zone challenges in the league – just 11 in nine games. No one else has fewer than 19. The Eagles’ defense has faced 28 red-zone challenges and allowed TDs on 17 of them (60.7 percent). They’re ranked 25th in red-zone defense.

Out of the gate

--The Patriots have a plus-105 halftime margin. That’s the largest in the league. Next closest are the 49ers at plus-69. The Eagles are minus-23. The Patriots have trailed at the half just once this season. That was in their 37-20 Week 9 loss to the Ravens (13-17).

--The Patriots have scored a league-best 87 points in the first quarter and 153 in the first half. Only three teams have scored more first-half points: the Chiefs (174), Ravens (164) and Vikings (155).

--The Eagles have given up 128 points in the first half, which is the sixth most in the league. In their back-to-back wins over the Bears and Bills, they allowed just seven first-half points.

--Eagles opponents have scored on their first possession in six of the first nine games. They’ve scored on their second possession in five of the first nine.

--Carson Wentz has a 76.8 passer rating in the first quarter, including a 58.0 completion percentage and just one touchdown pass.

--Just three of Alshon Jeffery’s 34 receptions this season have come in the first quarter.

This and that

--The Eagles controlled the ball for 40:18 in their Week 9 win over the Bears and 35:57 in their Week 8 win over the Bills. They’re 4-2 this season when they’ve won the time-of-possession battle, and 21-7 over the last three seasons. The Patriots are 7-0 when they’ve won the time-of-possession battle this season and 1-1 when they haven’t. They had the ball for just 22:59 in their 37-20 Week 9 loss to the Ravens, and 27:20 in a 16-10 Week 4 win over the Bills.

--In the last eight games, Eagles wide receivers have averaged just 5.61 yards per target and 9.91 yards per catch. Last year, they averaged 8.26 yards per target and 12.12 yards per catch. In 2017: 7.15 per target and 12.69 per catch.

--Carson Wentz has converted nine of 10 third/fourth-and-ones this season. The one time he came up short was on a fourth-and-one run v. Jets. He’s converted 27 of 30 third/fourth-and-ones in his career, including 13-for-13 in 2017. Since 2012, Brady has made 33 of 41 third/fourth-and-ones.

--Running back Miles Sanders has 22 catches. Five of them have gained 30 yards or more.

--Zach Ertz has a team-high 46 catches. Thirty-one of them have been on throws of zero to 10 yards, 14 on 11-to-19-yard throws and one on a 20-plus-yard throw. Ertz has 25 catches for 286 yards and a touchdown in 11-personnel (1RB, 1TE, 3WR), 20 catches for 226 yards and one TD in 12-personnel and one catch for 15 yards in 13-personnel.

--Five of Brandon Graham’s team-high six sacks have come on third down.