NFL playoff picture: Eagles scenarios, Chiefs face elimination

Despite three straight losses and arguably the worst game of Jalen Hurts’ career, the Eagles (8-5) remain in good shape to make the NFL playoffs and even host a game at the Linc.

How good? The New York Times pegs the Eagles’ chances of making the playoffs and hosting a wild card game at 92%, while NFL Next Gen Stats gives the Birds a 93% chance for a postseason berth. But their loss against the Los Angeles Chargers (9-4) last week gave new life to the Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1), who remain just a game and a half behind the Birds in the NFC East with four to go.

The Eagles certainly have the perfect opponent to turn things around this week. The Las Vegas Raiders (2-11) are tied for the worst record in the league, have already fired offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, and will start former Birds backup Kenny Pickett Sunday in snowy South Philly.

The Birds enter Week 15 in the NFC’s No. 3 spot, and if the season were already over they’d be hosting the No. 6 seed San Francisco 49ers (9-4) at the Linc during wild card weekend.

Here’s a look at the current playoff picture for the Eagles and the rest of the NFL:

In the NFC East, the Eagles’ magic number — combined wins and Cowboys losses — is three. So the soonest the Birds could be in a position to clinch both the division and a playoff berth would be Week 16 against the Washington Commanders (3-10).

The Cowboys face the Minnesota Vikings (5-8) Monday night. Even if Dallas comes away with a victory and manages to win their final three games — at home against the Chargers and on the road against the Commanders and New York Giants (2-11) — they would still need the Eagles to lose two of their final four to overtake the Birds in the standings.

It’s a longshot, but at this point it’s the Cowboys best chance to make the playoffs. Dallas remains three and a half games behind the No. 7 seed Chicago Bears (9-4) heading into Week 15, and a lot would have to happen for the Cowboys to enter the playoffs as a wild card.

Both the Commanders and Giants have already been eliminated from playoff contention, but both could play the role of spoiler in the coming weeks.

You’re saying there’s still a chance?

The Eagles enter Week 15 with all-but-impossible chance to end the season in the NFC’s No. 1 playoff spot.

What would have to happen? For starters, the Birds need to win their final four games ― against the Raiders, Buffalo Bills (9-4), Giants, and two against the Commanders ― to even have a shot at the top playoff seed.

Now comes the tricky part. In all likelihood, the Eagles would need five of the NFC’s top teams to lose two of their final five games, according to Wharton professor and Eagles analytics nerd Deniz Selman — the Los Angeles Rams (10-3), Seattle Seahawks (10-3), Green Bay Packers (9-3-1), 49ers, and Bears.

There are some even less-likely scenarios where the Eagles could win on tiebreakers, but it all points to the road to a Super Bowl repeat not going through the Linc.

Odds are the Eagles will win the NFC East and enter the playoffs at the NFC’s No. 3 seed, but the Birds could also end up as the No. 2 seed if things fall their way. Having tiebreakers against most of the top NFC teams helps, though not with the Packers because of that pesky tie.

The Birds entered the playoffs as the No. 2 seed last year, and that seemed to work out well.

Entering Week 15, not a single team in the league has clinched a playoff spot. That could change Sunday.

The Rams will clinch a playoff spot with a win against the Detroit Lions (8-5), who are currently on the outside of the postseason looking in.

The No. 1 seed will take a few weeks to sort out, thanks to a tight race in the NFC West featuring the Seattle Seahawks (10-3) and San Francisco 49ers (9-4).

What’s wild is there’s a possibility a team like the Lions, Bears, 49ers, Seahawks, or even Rams could end the season with 12 wins and miss the playoffs due to tiebreakers for the final wild card. That’s never happened in NFL history, though two teams have missed the playoffs with 11 wins — the 1985 Denver Broncos and the 2008 New England Patriots.

As for the No. 4 seed, the Carolina Panthers moved into a half-game lead in the NFC South over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers following Thursday night’s loss to the Atlanta Falcons. The Panthers could improve that lead with a win Sunday against the New Orleans Saints, which would put them in a position to clinch the division in Week 16 with a win against the Buccaneers.

Just one NFC team faced elimination in Week 15. The Minnesota Vikings (5-8) will officially be booted out of the postseason race with a loss to the Cowboys Monday night.

Over in the AFC, two teams can clinch playoff berths Sunday.

The No. 1 seed Denver Broncos (11-2) can clinch their second-straight postseason appearance under head coach Sean Payton with a win against the No. 3 seed Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4).

The No. 2 seed New England Patriots (11-2) will clinch the AFC East and a home playoff game with a win Sunday against the Bills, who have won the division five straight seasons.

Both the Broncos and Patriots could also technically clinch playoff berths with ties, but the less we go down that road, the better.

All eyes will be on the Kansas City Chiefs (6-7), who could be eliminated from the playoffs Sunday for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era under the following scenarios:

The Miami Dolphins (6-7) enter Week 15 on a four-game winning streak, but could be booted from the playoffs with a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) Monday night paired with wins by the Bills, Indianapolis Colts (8-5), and Houston Texans (8-5).

The Cincinnati Bengals (4-9) also face elimination from the playoffs. A loss to the Baltimore Ravens (6-7) Sunday will clinch the Bengals third-straight season without a playoff appearance. No wonder Joe Burrow is frustrated and whirling up the trade rumor machine.

We’re a little less than a month away from the first playoff game, which will take place on wild-card weekend beginning Jan. 10.

Six games will take place in the first round of the playoffs, airing across Fox, CBS, NBC, and ESPN/ABC. Amazon will also exclusively stream a wild-card game on Prime Video for the second straight season.

Super Bowl LX (or 60, for those who don’t like Roman numerals) is being held at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., home of the San Francisco 49ers. NBC will broadcast this year’s Super Bowl.

Here are the sites announced for future Super Bowls: