Jeff McLane’s keys to Eagles vs. Cowboys in Week 1: What you need to know and a prediction

The Eagles open the season against the Dallas Cowboys at 8:20 p.m. Thursday at Lincoln Financial Field. Here’s what you need to know about the matchup:

In two meetings last season, the Eagles scored 75 total points vs. the Cowboys with more than half their 724 total yards coming on the ground. And they were without quarterback Jalen Hurts in the second game. Credit goes to Saquon Barkley and an elite offensive line, but Dallas also had one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. The Cowboys finished near last in most statistical categories.

Owner Jerry Jones cited improving the run defense as one reason for trading Micah Parsons to the Green Bay Packers. Big-bodied defensive tackle Kenny Clark came in return. But Clark is seemingly on the downward arc of his career. As for the Cowboys’ other offseason changes in personnel, they acquired off-ball linebacker Kenneth Murray Jr., but lost maybe their top run stopper up front in defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence.

The most significant change for Dallas, though, may be the arrival of new coordinator Matt Eberflus. He’s been around a while, and in fact, ran the Indianapolis Colts defense when Eagles coach Nick Sirianni oversaw the other side of the ball in Indy. Sirianni and Co. also faced an Eberflus-helmed defense with the Chicago Bears three seasons ago. He has different players now, but the essentials of his scheme will be in place. He’ll run an aggressive 4-3 front and play a lot of two-high safety zones on the back end. You need good pass rushers in that system — well, any system, for that matter — and no Parsons should make life easier for the Eagles.

We still don’t know who will be starting at left guard as of this writing. If Landon Dickerson (knee) isn’t ready and Brett Toth gets the nod, the Cowboys may line up three-technique Osa Odighizuwa over to that side. The Eagles would normally slide protection Toth’s way, but they also have newbie Tyler Steen at right guard.

Dallas has its own injury issues on defense, particularly in the secondary. Cornerback Trevon Diggs is reportedly good to go after offseason knee surgery, but will he be 100%? DaRon Bland, who just signed a contract extension, will be healthy. He’ll be in the slot in nickel personnel. Kaiir Elam will likely play the other side in base. If any of the corners get hurt, their backups are unproven. The Cowboys’ second unit has been decimated by injury. Eagles receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith should be licking their chops.

The same could be said of the Cowboys’ top receivers with the Eagles integrating two new pieces into the secondary. Adoree’ Jackson and Sydney Brown are likely to start at cornerback and safety, respectively, but their hold on those positions could be tenuous.

The Eagles are expected to be strong at the three other spots with cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean and safety Reed Blankenship. But it’s still a young and relatively inexperienced group. Mitchell could follow CeeDee Lamb, but he lines up a lot in the slot, and that would also leave Jackson to run with the field-stretching George Pickens. I’d expect quarterback Dak Prescott to test Brown (or Drew Mukuba) in the deep post.

It may not matter much what Lamb or Pickens is doing if Prescott doesn’t have time in the pocket. Dallas’ offensive line hasn’t been what it once was despite recent investments. The interior should be solid with guards Tyler Smith and (top draft pick) Tyler Booker, and center Cooper Beebe. But the tackle situation is kind of a mess. Tyler Guyton, last year’s top draft pick, didn’t have a good rookie season and recently suffered a broken bone in his knee. He’s questionable for Thursday night.

The Eagles have four D-linemen in the rotation with increased roles this season: defensive tackles Moro Ojomo and Jordan Davis and outside linebackers Nolan Smith and Jalyx Hunt. Coaches have expressed optimism about each, but they still have to get it done. Lining up next to Jalen Carter, who will likely draw additional attention from Cowboys blockers, should help.

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Dallas will try to run the ball under new coach Brian Schottenheimer. I’m not sure if running back Javonte Williams, who was signed in the offseason after falling out of favor in Denver, is that great a threat. Can he offset what the Cowboys lack in terms of run blocking? The Eagles weren’t as dominant in stopping the rush last season as they were the pass, but Vic Fangio will often welcome offenses staying on the ground. There might have been a slight shift in run-pass ratio in the NFL a year ago, but it’s still a passing league and Prescott can get hot through the air.

If there’s an area in which Dallas has the edge, it’s probably on special teams. Brandon Aubrey is one of the best kickers and has made a remarkable 24 of 27 field goals of more than 50 yards over his two seasons. KaVontae Turpin has developed into a solid third receiver, but he’s most dangerous as a returner. He averaged 33.5 yards on 27 kick returns last season. With touchbacks on kickoffs now coming out to the 35-yard line, the Eagles may be forced to kick to Turpin.

Week 1 games are often hard to pick. The Birds have a lot going for them on the night they will unveil their second Super Bowl championship banner. The Linc should be on full tilt for a matchup against a hated rival. But the Cowboys have a bit of mystery to them and that’s always a challenge. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an upset. But I can’t go there. In fact, I think the Eagles win comfortably.

Prediction: Eagles 30, Cowboys 17.