Three reassuring Eagles stats, and three reasons to worry ahead of the NFL playoffs
Yes, the offensive numbers are grisly. But the Eagles' defensive dominance has only grown over the past month.
Just one game separates the Eagles from their playoff opener in what will be their fifth consecutive postseason appearance.
Sunday’s game vs. Washington has potential for both intrigue and boredom with the Eagles resting most of their starters and the NFC’s second or third seed in play.
The Eagles may just be looking ahead to the playoffs, so we’ll follow that path and focus our weekly glance at the numbers on what’s ahead.
» READ MORE: The Eagles wouldn’t be foolish to rest their starters in Week 18. But they’d better be right.
The confounding Eagles season continued with a 13-12 win against the Bills in Western New York. The Eagles seem simultaneously good enough to win it all and bad enough to score 11 points in a home loss in the wild-card round.
There is reason to be confident the Eagles can make a run, and reason to believe this playoff appearance will be short-lived. Here are a few reassuring stats, and some concerning stats ahead of the postseason.
Let’s start with the good stuff. It’s the holiday season ...
4
That’s the amount of rushers the Eagles sent at Josh Allen each of the five times they sacked him Sunday at Highmark Stadium. This has been a trend of late. Sunday marked the third game in the last four that the Eagles had at least four sacks with a four-man rush.
The Eagles, according to Next Gen Stats, have 18 sacks over their last four games utilizing four rushers. That was seven more than any other team in the NFL at the time Sunday’s game ended.
Let’s couch the excitement a little bit and add the context that two of those games were against the Raiders and Commanders, and the previous contest came against a good Chargers team with a really bad offensive line. But doing what the Eagles did against the Bills with four rushers is remarkable. Only five teams allow pressure to the quarterback at a lower clip than the Bills’ 29.4% for the season.
The Eagles’ success with four is a big deal, as we saw last year. Vic Fangio doesn’t dial up blitzes. The Eagles send extra rushers on just 19.5% of their defensive plays, the third-lowest rate in the NFL.
If Jalen Carter is back back from his shoulder injuries, the Eagles, with the deadline acquisition of Jaelan Phillips, might just have a versatile pass-rushing front that can take them pretty far. The Eagles have one of the best outside corners in the league in Quinyon Mitchell, one of the best nickel players in Cooper DeJean, linebackers who can cover, and adequate safeties.
This type of success rate with four gives the Eagles a numbers advantage beyond the line of scrimmage that works in their favor.
42.4%
So, the Eagles are humming up front, but let’s focus on the aforementioned Mitchell, who is having one heck of a second NFL season. He deserves his own section here because he will have the ability to take opposing receivers out of the game throughout the playoffs, and his coverage chops help the guys up front, too.
Among all defensive backs with at least 10 games played, Mitchell leads the NFL in catch rate allowed (42.4%). According to Next Gen, Mitchell has been in coverage on 576 defensive snaps and has allowed just 36 catches on 85 targets for 451 yards. He has allowed one touchdown.
» READ MORE: Why wouldn’t the Eagles go for the No. 2 seed? Nick Sirianni pointed to the Super Bowl for some insight.
Mitchell also leads qualified players in average target separation (1.8 yards).
A dangerous Rams passing attack could be up first next week, and Mitchell and the Eagles front will be waiting.
8-0
There was one turnover in the game Sunday, a crucial and controversial fumble by Allen that flipped the field and led to an Eagles touchdown.
That helped the Eagles improve to a league-best 8-0 when they win the turnover margin. They’re now 42-2 in the Nick Sirianni era when the turnover margin is in their favor.
This is one way of sneaking an offensive stat in here from a unit that hasn’t provided a lot of reassurance this season. But even in doing so, it’s a stat the offense shares with the defense. The Eagles have forced a turnover in eight consecutive games and are tied with Chicago for the longest active streak.
Jalen Hurts, meanwhile, has recovered nicely from his five-turnover disaster vs. the Chargers. He has six touchdown passes and no interceptions since that game.
The offense lacks an identity, but taking care of the ball is one it can hang its helmet on. That’s not nothing when the defense is playing like it is.
Reasons to worry
We’re not going to sneak a defensive stat in here.
40.1%
The Eagles were shut out by the Bills in the second half. They ran 17 plays and netted 17 yards before Hurts took a knee to end the game. It wasn’t pretty.
For the second time this season, Hurts didn’t complete a pass (in seven attempts) in the second half, and somehow the Eagles are 2-0 in those games. No other team has failed to complete a pass in the second half this season.
The Eagles were often in third-and-long because they again couldn’t get their running game going — this time against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Saquon Barkley barely had space to move thanks to missed assignments from the offensive line and tight ends. The Eagles often ran into stacked boxes (they face the fourth-highest stacked-box rate in the league). Dallas Goedert playing fullback was an experiment that failed. Barkley had just 1.75 yards per carry in the second half.
The Eagles’ success rate on the ground is 40.1%, which ranks 24th in the NFL. It’s been the root of the offense’s issues all season.
Barkley had encouraging performances recently vs. the Commanders and Chargers, but Sunday was a step back, and considering there’s a real chance the starters rest Sunday, it’s a sour taste to enter the postseason with.
The Eagles are probably going to need to be able to run the ball to win in the playoffs, and the lack of a running game makes them so much easier to defend.
» READ MORE: The Eagles are going to keep driving you crazy with their passive offense. Get used to it.
9.9
Since their Week 9 bye, the Eagles have scored more than 21 points just twice in eight games, and those were against two of the worst teams in football (Commanders and Raiders).
This isn’t a high-powered offense, and it’s one that particularly has trouble scoring in the second half. Sunday wasn’t an outlier. The Eagles average just 9.9 second-half points. That’s good for 25th in the NFL. The combined record of the teams below them: 32-80.
Scoring in the second half might come in handy in the postseason.
73.1%
Jake Elliott went 2-for-2 Sunday, with field goal makes from 28 and 47 yards. He also made his lone point-after attempt.
It was a nice rebound performance in bad weather from Elliott after a game against the Commanders in which he missed two field goals (plus a third that was negated by a penalty).
But saying it’s been a shaky season from Elliott is probably putting it mildly. His conversion rate of 73.1% on field goals is the lowest of his nine-season NFL career. This, on the heels of a 77.8% campaign in 2024.
An inept offense will make the margins slim, and the Eagles’ playoff life could at some point come down to a single kick.
The Eagles have a solid stash of draft picks (8) and, for a team just one season removed from winning the Super Bowl, a lot of positions that need to be addressed. Several elite members of the offensive line could be on the verge of retirement, while the wide receiver corps appears destined to lose a dynamic member. After bolstering the defense in the early rounds of the draft in recent years, will general manager Howie Roseman pivot this spring? The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Jeff McLane and Devin Jackson combine their reporting and analysis to forecast how the Eagles might attack the 2026 NFL Draft, which gets underway Thursday in Pittsburgh. Listen here.
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