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Sports betting: Vegas Vic’s top plays are Cowboys on the road, Eagles at home and some Zach Ertz props

Also running with Houston this week since the Ravens have been atrocious against the spread as a favorite.

New England found out in the Super Bowl that the truth Ertz, and will feel it again on Sunday.
New England found out in the Super Bowl that the truth Ertz, and will feel it again on Sunday.Read moreDAVID MAIALETTI / Staff Photographer

Inquirer oddsmaker Vegas Vic looks at the Week 11 matchups starting with the Eagles hosting the Patriots at what has become the friendly confines of Lincoln Financial Field.

His No. 1 play of the weekend is Dallas, which should take advantage of Detroit’s misery at quarterback.

Sunday

Patriots (-3.5) EAGLES (44.5), 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Both teams are coming off the bye week, so where’s the edge? How about home cookin’, baby.

Since Dougie Pederson has taken over the playbook, the Birds have been outstanding at the Linc. In 2016, despite a 7-9 record, the Green were 6-2 on Pattison Avenue, then 9-1 in 2017 and 5-3 last season and come in with a 3-1 mark so far this season. My calculator tells me that’s 23-7, and you can’t ask for much more than 77%.

» READ MORE: Domo’s scouting report, prediction for Eagles-Patriots

And what about poor little Tommy Brady and his “mental scar tissue?” Get over it, Tom. You have SIX Super Bowl rings and will be a first-ballot, maybe unanimous Hall of Famer. So you dropped a pass from Danny Amendola that was right in your hands. So what.

Leaning to the Birds at +3.5 — and make sure you get that hook.

But my strong play will be OVER on Zach Ertz receptions. Shop around for the best number (probably between 4.5 and 5.5). After snagging nine balls against a pretty solid Chicago D, Julie’s husband should find some holes in New England’s secondary. Also would not mind a look at Ertz to score the first TD when those odds come out.

Ed Barkowitz
Patriots
Les Bowen
Patriots
Paul Domowitch
Eagles
Marcus Hayes
Eagles
Jeff McLane
Patriots (Best Bet)
Marc Narducci
Eagles
Vegas Vic
Eagles

Cowboys (-4) LIONS (48.5), 1 p.m. (Fox)

The shops out here still had Cowboys -4 on Thursday, so we’re expecting it to go up if Matthew Stafford is out again. But the Star is the play. Why? Cupcakery & Jeff Driskel.

First we bring you Cupcakery. Not sure what happened when Dallas played the Jets and lost 24-22, but the 'Boys have dominated against the rest of the NFL cupcakes. It was 35-17 and 37-18 in two wins against the Giants, 31-21 over Washington and 31-6 against Miami. And Detroit has had major problems against the cream of the NFL crop, winning just two of the last 11 straight-up against teams with winning records, and covering only three of those.

Now for Driskel. He was not horrible last week against the Bears (27-46 for 269 yards), but the biggest concern is, he was the Lions’ leading rusher. Uh oh!

We know all about tough guys, and Stafford is as tough as they come, but c’mon, the guy has a fractured back. And since Dallas has won nine of the last 12 off a loss, yes, this is my best bet, baby. And would push all my chips in and go as high as -7.

Ed Barkowitz
Cowboys
Les Bowen
Cowboys
Paul Domowitch
Cowboys
Marcus Hayes
Cowboys
Jeff McLane
Cowboys
Marc Narducci
Cowboys
Vegas Vic
Cowboys (Best Bet)

Saints (-5.5) BUCCANEERS (50.5), 1 p.m.

New Orleans didn’t score a TD last week, so you know that Drew Brees is ready to light up the Tampa D.

Ed Barkowitz
Saints
Les Bowen
Buccaneers
Paul Domowitch
Saints (Best Bet)
Marcus Hayes
Saints
Jeff McLane
Buccaneers
Marc Narducci
Saints
Vegas Vic
Saints

PANTHERS (-5.5) Falcons (49.5), 1 p.m.

Not sure why, but Atlanta has cast some kind of spell on Carolina. The Southern Birds have won and covered six of the last seven against the Panthers. As long as Matty Ice is pitching, I’m catching the +5.5 with the Falcs.

Ed Barkowitz
Panthers
Les Bowen
Panthers
Paul Domowitch
Panthers
Marcus Hayes
Falcons
Jeff McLane
Panthers
Marc Narducci
Falcons
Vegas Vic
Falcons

COLTS (3) Jaguars (44), 1 p.m.

Nick Foles might be a little bit rusty in his return, but it’ll be quite an upgrade from the Mustache.

Ed Barkowitz
Jaguars
Les Bowen
Jaguars
Paul Domowitch
Colts
Marcus Hayes
Colts
Jeff McLane
Jaguars
Marc Narducci
Colts
Vegas Vic
Jaguars

VIKINGS (-10.5) Broncos (40.5), 1 p.m.

After the crucial prime-time win over the Cowboys, look for Minny to skate, but not with a passion. Back door cover, baby.

Ed Barkowitz
Vikings
Les Bowen
Vikings
Paul Domowitch
Vikings
Marcus Hayes
Vikings
Jeff McLane
Broncos
Marc Narducci
Vikings
Vegas Vic
Broncos

REDSKINS (-1) Jets (38.5), 1 p.m.

Washington, 1-8 Washington, is the favorite? Not saying the New Yorkers and Sam Darnold are all that and a bag of chips, but against rookie QB Dwayne Haskins, we’re going 'dog. The Jets just beat the Giants, an important rivalry win. And the owner, Christopher Johnson, delivered a huge endorsement of head coach Adam Gase last Wednesday before the Giants game, saying he’s my guy, today, tomorrow, and until the end of the 2020 season. That spells W.

Ed Barkowitz
Jets
Les Bowen
Jets
Paul Domowitch
Jets
Marcus Hayes
Jets
Jeff McLane
Jets
Marc Narducci
Jets
Vegas Vic
Jets

Bills (6) DOLPHINS (40.6), 1 p.m.

Fitzmagic is alive and well. After riding the Magic to a best bet win last week, gotta come back with Miami once again. The Fish have been money in the bank, swimming into this AFC East tilt on a gorgeous 5-0 spread roll.

And just think about this: Miami was a 17-point underdog at Buffalo just last month, and covered in a 31-21 loss. Now the Bills are only +6. What? Take this stat to the betting window: The Buffs have won only four of the last 16 against teams with losing records.

Ed Barkowitz
Bills
Les Bowen
Dolphins
Paul Domowitch
Bills
Marcus Hayes
Bills
Jeff McLane
Bills
Marc Narducci
Dolphins
Vegas Vic
Dolphins

RAVENS (4.5) Texans (50), 1 p.m. (CBS)

Deshaun Watson can put some points on the board, and Baltimore is just 3-10-1 the last 14 as a favorite.

Ed Barkowitz
Ravens (Best Bet)
Les Bowen
Ravens
Paul Domowitch
Texans
Marcus Hayes
Ravens
Jeff McLane
Ravens
Marc Narducci
Ravens
Vegas Vic
Texans

49ERS (11.5) Cardinals (40.5), 4:05 p.m.

They met on Oct. 31 and Arizona covered a 10-point spread in a 28-25 loss. 'Zona has covered five of the last six, so I’m buying Kyler Murray.

Ed Barkowitz
Cardinals
Les Bowen
Cardinals
Paul Domowitch
49ers
Marcus Hayes
49ers
Jeff McLane
Cardinals
Marc Narducci
Cardinals
Vegas Vic
Cardinals

RAIDERS (-10.5) Bengals (48.5), 4:25 p.m.

Kinda obvious that Cincy has quit while Oakland is rocking the bank, covering six of the last seven at home.

Ed Barkowitz
Bengals
Les Bowen
Raiders
Paul Domowitch
Raiders
Marcus Hayes
Bengals
Jeff McLane
Bengals
Marc Narducci
Raiders
Vegas Vic
Raiders

RAMS (6.5) Bears (40.5), 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

Even with the recent funk, Los Angeles has covered 10 of the last 14. Chicago has covered only one of the last five.

Ed Barkowitz
Bears
Les Bowen
Bears (Best Bet)
Paul Domowitch
Bears
Marcus Hayes
Bears
Jeff McLane
Rams
Marc Narducci
Bears
Vegas Vic
Rams

Monday

Chiefs (-3.5) Chargers (52.5), 8:15 p.m.

At Mexico City

Patrick Mahomes stepped back under center after missing a few games, and there was no rust. He hit on 36 of 50 for 446 yards and 3 TDs. And we know that Patrick also likes Mexico City. Even though Kaycee lost to the Rams in Mexico last season, 54-51, Mahomes was 33-for-46 for 478 yards and a ridiculous six TDs. And how about the Chiefs’ winning 23 of the last 25 against the AFC West.

Ed Barkowitz
Chiefs
Les Bowen
Chiefs
Paul Domowitch
Chiefs
Marcus Hayes
Chiefs (Best Bet)
Jeff McLane
Chiefs
Marc Narducci
Chiefs (Best Bet)
Vegas Vic
Chiefs

Thursday

BROWNS (-2.5) Steelers (40.5)

» READ MORE: Browns win marred by Myles Garrett helmet incident

Ed Barkowitz
Steelers (L)
Les Bowen
Steelers (L)
Paul Domowitch
Steelers (L)
Marcus Hayes
Steelers (L)
Jeff McLane
Steelers (L)
Marc Narducci
Steelers (L)
Vegas Vic
Steelers (L)

Last week

Ed Barkowitz
6-6-1 (0-1 Best Bet)
Les Bowen
5-7-1 (0-1)
Paul Domowitch
5-7-1 (0-1)
Marcus Hayes
7-5-1 (0-0-1)
Jeff McLane
8-4-1 (0-1)
Marc Narducci
6-6-1 (0-1)
Vegas Vic
7-5-1 (1-0)

Season/Entering Week 11

Jeff McLane
85-61-2 (7-3 Best Bet)
.581
Vegas Vic
80-66-2 (8-2)
.547
Marcus Hayes
76-70-2 (6-3-1)
.520
Marc Narducci
72-74-2 (4-6)
.493
Les Bowen
72-74-2 (3-6-1)
.493
Ed Barkowitz
72-74-2 (2-8)
.493
Paul Domowitch
72-74-2 (2-8)
.493