Inquirer oddsmaker Vegas Vic looks at the Week 11 matchups starting with the Eagles hosting the Patriots at what has become the friendly confines of Lincoln Financial Field.
His No. 1 play of the weekend is Dallas, which should take advantage of Detroit’s misery at quarterback.
Patriots (-3.5) EAGLES (44.5), 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
Both teams are coming off the bye week, so where’s the edge? How about home cookin’, baby.
Since Dougie Pederson has taken over the playbook, the Birds have been outstanding at the Linc. In 2016, despite a 7-9 record, the Green were 6-2 on Pattison Avenue, then 9-1 in 2017 and 5-3 last season and come in with a 3-1 mark so far this season. My calculator tells me that’s 23-7, and you can’t ask for much more than 77%.
And what about poor little Tommy Brady and his “mental scar tissue?” Get over it, Tom. You have SIX Super Bowl rings and will be a first-ballot, maybe unanimous Hall of Famer. So you dropped a pass from Danny Amendola that was right in your hands. So what.
Leaning to the Birds at +3.5 — and make sure you get that hook.
But my strong play will be OVER on Zach Ertz receptions. Shop around for the best number (probably between 4.5 and 5.5). After snagging nine balls against a pretty solid Chicago D, Julie’s husband should find some holes in New England’s secondary. Also would not mind a look at Ertz to score the first TD when those odds come out.
Cowboys (-4) LIONS (48.5), 1 p.m. (Fox)
The shops out here still had Cowboys -4 on Thursday, so we’re expecting it to go up if Matthew Stafford is out again. But the Star is the play. Why? Cupcakery & Jeff Driskel.
First we bring you Cupcakery. Not sure what happened when Dallas played the Jets and lost 24-22, but the 'Boys have dominated against the rest of the NFL cupcakes. It was 35-17 and 37-18 in two wins against the Giants, 31-21 over Washington and 31-6 against Miami. And Detroit has had major problems against the cream of the NFL crop, winning just two of the last 11 straight-up against teams with winning records, and covering only three of those.
Now for Driskel. He was not horrible last week against the Bears (27-46 for 269 yards), but the biggest concern is, he was the Lions’ leading rusher. Uh oh!
We know all about tough guys, and Stafford is as tough as they come, but c’mon, the guy has a fractured back. And since Dallas has won nine of the last 12 off a loss, yes, this is my best bet, baby. And would push all my chips in and go as high as -7.
Saints (-5.5) BUCCANEERS (50.5), 1 p.m.
New Orleans didn’t score a TD last week, so you know that Drew Brees is ready to light up the Tampa D.
PANTHERS (-5.5) Falcons (49.5), 1 p.m.
Not sure why, but Atlanta has cast some kind of spell on Carolina. The Southern Birds have won and covered six of the last seven against the Panthers. As long as Matty Ice is pitching, I’m catching the +5.5 with the Falcs.
COLTS (3) Jaguars (44), 1 p.m.
Nick Foles might be a little bit rusty in his return, but it’ll be quite an upgrade from the Mustache.
VIKINGS (-10.5) Broncos (40.5), 1 p.m.
After the crucial prime-time win over the Cowboys, look for Minny to skate, but not with a passion. Back door cover, baby.
REDSKINS (-1) Jets (38.5), 1 p.m.
Washington, 1-8 Washington, is the favorite? Not saying the New Yorkers and Sam Darnold are all that and a bag of chips, but against rookie QB Dwayne Haskins, we’re going 'dog. The Jets just beat the Giants, an important rivalry win. And the owner, Christopher Johnson, delivered a huge endorsement of head coach Adam Gase last Wednesday before the Giants game, saying he’s my guy, today, tomorrow, and until the end of the 2020 season. That spells W.
Bills (6) DOLPHINS (40.6), 1 p.m.
Fitzmagic is alive and well. After riding the Magic to a best bet win last week, gotta come back with Miami once again. The Fish have been money in the bank, swimming into this AFC East tilt on a gorgeous 5-0 spread roll.
And just think about this: Miami was a 17-point underdog at Buffalo just last month, and covered in a 31-21 loss. Now the Bills are only +6. What? Take this stat to the betting window: The Buffs have won only four of the last 16 against teams with losing records.
RAVENS (4.5) Texans (50), 1 p.m. (CBS)
Deshaun Watson can put some points on the board, and Baltimore is just 3-10-1 the last 14 as a favorite.
49ERS (11.5) Cardinals (40.5), 4:05 p.m.
They met on Oct. 31 and Arizona covered a 10-point spread in a 28-25 loss. 'Zona has covered five of the last six, so I’m buying Kyler Murray.
RAIDERS (-10.5) Bengals (48.5), 4:25 p.m.
Kinda obvious that Cincy has quit while Oakland is rocking the bank, covering six of the last seven at home.
RAMS (6.5) Bears (40.5), 8:20 p.m. (NBC)
Even with the recent funk, Los Angeles has covered 10 of the last 14. Chicago has covered only one of the last five.
Chiefs (-3.5) Chargers (52.5), 8:15 p.m.
At Mexico City
Patrick Mahomes stepped back under center after missing a few games, and there was no rust. He hit on 36 of 50 for 446 yards and 3 TDs. And we know that Patrick also likes Mexico City. Even though Kaycee lost to the Rams in Mexico last season, 54-51, Mahomes was 33-for-46 for 478 yards and a ridiculous six TDs. And how about the Chiefs’ winning 23 of the last 25 against the AFC West.
BROWNS (-2.5) Steelers (40.5)
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